OS1.5

Theoretical and model studies show that the ocean is a chaotic system interacting with the atmosphere: uncertainties in ocean model initial states may grow and strongly affect the simulated variability up to multidecadal and basin scales, with or without coupling to the atmosphere. In addition, ocean simulations require both the use of subgrid-scale parameterizations that mimick crudely unresolved processes, and the calibration of the parameters associated with these parameterizations, while respecting numerical stability constraints. Oceanographers are increasingly adopting ensemble simulation strategies and probabilistic analysis methods, and developing stochastic parameterizations for modeling and understanding the ocean variability in this context of multiple uncertainties.

Presentations are solicited about the conception and analysis of ocean ensemble simulations, the characterization of ocean model uncertainties, and the development of stochastic parameterizations for ocean models. The session will also cover the dynamics and structure of the ocean chaotic variability, its relationship with the atmospheric variability, and the use of dynamical system or information theories for the investigation of the oceanic variability. We welcome as well studies about the propagation of the ocean chaotic variability towards other components of the climate system, about its consequences regarding ocean predictability, operational forecasts, detection and attribution of climate signals, climate simulations and projections.

Public information:
OS1.5 : CHAOTIC VARIABILITY AND MODELLING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE OCEAN: TOWARDS PROBABILISTIC OCEANOGRAPHY
WEDNESDAY : 16:15 - 18:00 : TENTATIVE SCHEDULE FOR THE CHAT (Public on EGU website)
12 minutes for hightlighted talk (Sinha et al)
7 minutes for all other talks

==========================================================================
16:15 - 16:18 SESSION INTRODUCTION
==========================================================================

==========================================================================
16:20 - 17:00 FORCED AND CHAOTIC OCEAN VARIABILITY
==========================================================================

01. D2581 | EGU2020-7226 | HIGHLIGHT —> 12 min
Quantifying uncertainty in decadal ocean heat uptake due to intrinsic ocean variability.
Bablu Sinha, Alex Megann, Thierry Penduff, Jean-Marc Molines, and Sybren Drijfhout

02. D2582 | EGU2020-5689 —> 7 min
Forced and chaotic variability of interannual variability of regional sea level and its causes scale over 1993-2015.
Alice Carret, William Llovel, Thierry Penduff, Jean-Marc Molines, and Benoît Meyssignac

03. D2592 | EGU2020-2737 —> 7 min
Forced and chaotic variability of basin-scale heat budgets in the global ocean: focus on the South Atlantic crossroads. 
Thierry Penduff, Fei-Er Yan, Imane Benabicha, Jean-Marc Molines, and Bernard Barnier

04. D2583 | EGU2020-19875 —> 7 min
Year-to-year meridional shifts of the Great Whirl driven by oceanic internal instabilities 
Kwatra Sadhvi, Iyyappan Suresh, Izumo Takeshi, Jerome Vialard, Matthieu Lengaigne, Thierry Penduff, and Jean Marc Molines.

05. D2584 | EGU2020-20309 —> 7 min
Deconstructing the subtropical AMOC variability.
Quentin Jamet, William Dewar, Nicolas Wienders, Bruno Deremble, Sally Close, and Thierry Penduff

==========================================================================
17:00 - 17:25 OCEAN PROCESSES AND PARAMETERIZATIONS
==========================================================================

06. D2586 | EGU2020-21330 —> 7 min
Eddy-Mean flow oscillations in the Southern Ocean. 
Sebastiano Roncoroni and David Ferreira

07. D2585 | EGU2020-22418 —> 7 min
On wind-driven energetics of subtropical gyres.
William K. Dewar, Quentin Jamet, Bruno Deremble, and Nicolas Wienders

08. D2587 | EGU2020-11312 —> 7 min
Stochastic Advection for eddy parameterisation in Primitive Equation Models.
Stuart Patching

==========================================================================
17:25 - 17:50 OCEAN MODELLING UNCERTAINTIES
==========================================================================

09. D2589 | EGU2020-11127 —> 7 min
Ensemble quantification of short-term predictability of the ocean fine-scale dynamics: a western mediterranean test case at kilometric-scale resolution. 
Stéphanie Leroux, Jean-Michel Brankart, Aurélie Albert, Pierre Brasseur, Laurent Brodeau, Julien Le Sommer, Jean-Marc Molines, and Thierry Penduff

10. D2590 | EGU2020-6489 —> 7 min
Predictability of estuarine model using Information Theory: ROMS Ocean State Ocean Model 
Aakash Sane, Baylor Fox-Kemper, David Ullman, Christopher Kincaid, and Lewis Rothstein

11. D2591 | EGU2020-6000 —> 7 min
Impact of Atmospheric and Model Physics Perturbations On a High-Resolution Ensemble Data Assimilation System of the Red Sea 
Siva Reddy Sanikommu, Habib Toye, Peng Zhan, Sabique Langodan, George Krokos, Omar Knio, and Ibrahim Hoteit

==========================================================================
17:50 - 18:00 OPEN DISCUSSION - CLOSING THE SESSION
==========================================================================

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Co-organized by NP5
Convener: Thierry Penduff | Co-conveners: William K. Dewar, Guillaume Sérazin, Laure Zanna
Displays
| Attendance Wed, 06 May, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)

Theoretical and model studies show that the ocean is a chaotic system interacting with the atmosphere: uncertainties in ocean model initial states may grow and strongly affect the simulated variability up to multidecadal and basin scales, with or without coupling to the atmosphere. In addition, ocean simulations require both the use of subgrid-scale parameterizations that mimick crudely unresolved processes, and the calibration of the parameters associated with these parameterizations, while respecting numerical stability constraints. Oceanographers are increasingly adopting ensemble simulation strategies and probabilistic analysis methods, and developing stochastic parameterizations for modeling and understanding the ocean variability in this context of multiple uncertainties.

Presentations are solicited about the conception and analysis of ocean ensemble simulations, the characterization of ocean model uncertainties, and the development of stochastic parameterizations for ocean models. The session will also cover the dynamics and structure of the ocean chaotic variability, its relationship with the atmospheric variability, and the use of dynamical system or information theories for the investigation of the oceanic variability. We welcome as well studies about the propagation of the ocean chaotic variability towards other components of the climate system, about its consequences regarding ocean predictability, operational forecasts, detection and attribution of climate signals, climate simulations and projections.

Public information: OS1.5 : CHAOTIC VARIABILITY AND MODELLING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE OCEAN: TOWARDS PROBABILISTIC OCEANOGRAPHY
WEDNESDAY : 16:15 - 18:00 : TENTATIVE SCHEDULE FOR THE CHAT (Public on EGU website)
12 minutes for hightlighted talk (Sinha et al)
7 minutes for all other talks

==========================================================================
16:15 - 16:18 SESSION INTRODUCTION
==========================================================================

==========================================================================
16:20 - 17:00 FORCED AND CHAOTIC OCEAN VARIABILITY
==========================================================================

01. D2581 | EGU2020-7226 | HIGHLIGHT —> 12 min
Quantifying uncertainty in decadal ocean heat uptake due to intrinsic ocean variability.
Bablu Sinha, Alex Megann, Thierry Penduff, Jean-Marc Molines, and Sybren Drijfhout

02. D2582 | EGU2020-5689 —> 7 min
Forced and chaotic variability of interannual variability of regional sea level and its causes scale over 1993-2015.
Alice Carret, William Llovel, Thierry Penduff, Jean-Marc Molines, and Benoît Meyssignac

03. D2592 | EGU2020-2737 —> 7 min
Forced and chaotic variability of basin-scale heat budgets in the global ocean: focus on the South Atlantic crossroads. 
Thierry Penduff, Fei-Er Yan, Imane Benabicha, Jean-Marc Molines, and Bernard Barnier

04. D2583 | EGU2020-19875 —> 7 min
Year-to-year meridional shifts of the Great Whirl driven by oceanic internal instabilities 
Kwatra Sadhvi, Iyyappan Suresh, Izumo Takeshi, Jerome Vialard, Matthieu Lengaigne, Thierry Penduff, and Jean Marc Molines.

05. D2584 | EGU2020-20309 —> 7 min
Deconstructing the subtropical AMOC variability.
Quentin Jamet, William Dewar, Nicolas Wienders, Bruno Deremble, Sally Close, and Thierry Penduff

==========================================================================
17:00 - 17:25 OCEAN PROCESSES AND PARAMETERIZATIONS
==========================================================================

06. D2586 | EGU2020-21330 —> 7 min
Eddy-Mean flow oscillations in the Southern Ocean. 
Sebastiano Roncoroni and David Ferreira

07. D2585 | EGU2020-22418 —> 7 min
On wind-driven energetics of subtropical gyres.
William K. Dewar, Quentin Jamet, Bruno Deremble, and Nicolas Wienders

08. D2587 | EGU2020-11312 —> 7 min
Stochastic Advection for eddy parameterisation in Primitive Equation Models.
Stuart Patching

==========================================================================
17:25 - 17:50 OCEAN MODELLING UNCERTAINTIES
==========================================================================

09. D2589 | EGU2020-11127 —> 7 min
Ensemble quantification of short-term predictability of the ocean fine-scale dynamics: a western mediterranean test case at kilometric-scale resolution. 
Stéphanie Leroux, Jean-Michel Brankart, Aurélie Albert, Pierre Brasseur, Laurent Brodeau, Julien Le Sommer, Jean-Marc Molines, and Thierry Penduff

10. D2590 | EGU2020-6489 —> 7 min
Predictability of estuarine model using Information Theory: ROMS Ocean State Ocean Model 
Aakash Sane, Baylor Fox-Kemper, David Ullman, Christopher Kincaid, and Lewis Rothstein

11. D2591 | EGU2020-6000 —> 7 min
Impact of Atmospheric and Model Physics Perturbations On a High-Resolution Ensemble Data Assimilation System of the Red Sea 
Siva Reddy Sanikommu, Habib Toye, Peng Zhan, Sabique Langodan, George Krokos, Omar Knio, and Ibrahim Hoteit

==========================================================================
17:50 - 18:00 OPEN DISCUSSION - CLOSING THE SESSION
==========================================================================

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