Information on the future climate is an essential basis for managing the risks, as well as potential opportunities, arising from a changing climate. Typically, this information comes from state-of-the-art numerical simulations of the climate in the form of climate predictions and climate projections. For many decision-makers and policymakers the information available from climate simulations is not at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales they need to form the basis for their climate-related risk assessments or for climate action plans. Also, some decision-makers require information that spans a range of time scales from a few months or a year ahead to decades into the future. Observational and emerging constraints can help evaluate and possibly constrain model-based uncertainty ranges.
This session aims to cover the advances in providing usable and reliable climate information for Europe over the next 40 or so years. It welcomes, without being restricted to, presentations on:
• Improved methods to quantify and understand uncertainty in climate predictions and projections for Europe. This could be on spatial scales from convectively resolving to global.
• Processes which bridge time scales from beyond a season to multiple decades and methodologies to blend the output from initialised predictions and non-initialised projections
• Demonstration of added value of initialised vs non-initialised near-term climate predictions and projections using innovative verification tools
• Illustration of the value of such climate information system through applications
The session will bring together research scientists and users from a range of projects including EUCP and national initiatives with the aim of sharing experiences, novel results and initiating discussions on this emerging topic.
David Sexton (Met Office)
James Murphy (Met Office)
Carlo Buontempo (Copernicus Climate Change Service C3S)
Meeting ID: 942 4612 7256