Sea level rise: past, present and future
Convener: Svetlana Jevrejeva | Co-conveners: Mélanie Becker, Marta Marcos, Aimée Slangen, Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer
| Attendance Mon, 04 May, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)

To address societal concerns over rising sea level and extreme events, understanding the contributions behind these changes is key to predict potential impacts of sea level change on coastal communities and global economy, and is recognized as one of the Grand Challenges of our time by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). To continue this discussion, we welcome contributions from the international sea level community that improve our knowledge of the past and present changes in sea level, extreme events, and flooding, and produce improved predictions of their future changes. We welcome studies on various drivers of sea level change and linkages between variability in sea level, heat and freshwater content, ocean dynamics, land subsidence from natural versus anthropogenic influences, and mass exchange between the land and the ocean associated with ice sheet and glacier mass loss and changes in the terrestrial water storage. Studies focusing on future sea level changes are also encouraged, as well as those discussing potential short-, medium-, and long-term impacts on coastal and deltaic environments, as well as the global oceans.

Public information:
[allowing for ~5 minutes per display]

8.30-8.32 Introduction to session

8.33-8.40 Invited talk
Kiko Calafat - Probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge extremes in Europe

8.40-9.15 Projections
Aslak Grinsted - The transient sensitivity of sea level rise
Ben Horton - Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from expert assessment
Erwin Lambert - The codependence of contributors to regional sea-level rise
Lin Wang - Sea Level Rise in Macau and Adjacent Southern China Coast: Historical Change and Future Projections
Rene van Westen - Resolution Dependency of Future Caribbean Sea Level Response
Svetlana Jevrejeva - Developing future sea level services for Small Island Developing States
Alex Todd - Ocean-only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change

9.15-9.50 Observations
Ole Andersen - Consolidating Sea Level Acceleration Estimates from Altimetry for the 1991-2019 Period
Riccardo Riva - Detecting non-linear sea-level variations in tide gauge records: a study case along the Dutch coast
Andrew Matthews - An International Data Centre for GNSS Interferometric Reflectometry Data for Observing Sea Level Change
Francesco de Biasio - Estimating Vertical Land Motion in Northern Adriatic Sea with Coastal Altimetry and In Situ Observations
Marta Marcos - Historical tide-gauge sea-level observations in Alicante and Santander (Spain) since the 19th century
Steve Nerem - Observed Regional Sea Level Trends: Climate Drivers and Implications for Projecting Future Change
Eduardo Zorita - Decadal Sea level Variability in the subtropical South Pacific

9.50-10.15 Sea Level Budget
Martin Horwath - Data products from the ESA CCI Sea Level Budget Closure project
Thomas Frederikse - The causes of sea-level rise since 1900
Bramha Vishwakarma - A revised sea level budget equation to accurately represent physical processes driving sea level rise
Carolina Camargo - Revisiting the Global and Regional Steric Sea-level Trends in the Satellite Era
Bernd Uebbing - Closing the global and regional sea level budgets by combining multi-mission altimetry and GRACE(-FO) data

10.15 Closing the session

The following talks will not be presented during the chat:

*Birgit Hünicke - Statistical Downscaling of daily extreme Sea Level with Random Forest: Examples from South-East Asia and the Baltic Sea
*Tong Lee - Deciphering forcing mechanisms for dynamic sea level variations off the northeast US coast
*Kwang-Young Jeong - Reproduction and projection of sea level around Korean Peninsula using regional climate ocean model with dynamical downscaling method
*Dewi Le Bars - The future of sea level: More knowledge, more uncertainty