Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction: meteorology and impacts
Convener: Frederic Vitart | Co-conveners: Daniela Domeisen, A.G. Muñoz, Christopher White
| Attendance Mon, 04 May, 14:00–18:00 (CEST)

With the advent of the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project, research communities now have unprecedented access to a comprehensive database of forecasts and hindcasts from a large number of forecasting centres from across the globe.

This session invites contributions that span all aspects of meteorological/oceanographic prediction in the 2 weeks to 2 months lead time range. The session will include both meteorological and impacts studies, that may use the S2S project’s database, but that can also use alternative sources of forecast information. Contributions are welcome for studies of phenomena such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), tropical/extratropical waves, stratospheric variability and stratosphere - troposphere coupling, in addition to studies of predictability/skill of atmospheric or surface variables and case studies of high impact weather events.

Contributions regarding impacts studies at the S2S time-range are also highly welcome, including, but not limited to, the areas of hydrology, health, fire, agriculture, and energy. These can include modeling studies of the impacts right through to presentations of how S2S-derived information can be integrated into decision support systems at the local, regional and country level.

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Our two solicited speaker this year are:

Dr Adrian M Tompkins (ICTP,Italy) talking us about the potential to forecast malaria outbreaks at the S2S time scale.
Dr Suzana Camargo (columbia University, US) looking at the predictability of tropical cyclones at the S2S time scale


The S2S dinner will take place as for tradition on the day of the session. You will receive an email with instruction if you would like to participate.

Public information:
S2S Session AS 1.9 Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction: meteorology and impacts

Session 1: Monday 4 May 14:00-15:45 PM CET

14:00-15:15 Discussion/questions on individual displays

1. On the Resonances and Teleconnections of the North Atlantic and Madden-Julian Oscillations
Gilbert Brunet

2. Sub-seasonal prediction of the extreme weather conditions associated with the northeastern Australia floods in February 2019
Tim Cowan

3. Predictable weather regimes at the S2S time scale
Nicola Cortesi

4. The mutual impact of weather regimes and the stratospheric circulation on European surface weather
Christian Grams

5. Troposphere-Stratosphere Coupling In S2S Models and Its Importance for a Realistic Extratropical Response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Chen Schwartz

6. Impacts of ocean model resolution in S2S forecasts with the ECMWF coupled model
Chris Roberts

7. Convective-Permitting Modeling for Retrospective Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Forecasting Using the Framework of the Coordinated Regional Ensemble Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)
Hsin-I Chang

8. Tropical cyclone activity prediction on subseasonal time-scales
Suzana Camargo

9. Subseasonal forecasts for humanitarian decision-making in Kenya: understanding forecast skill and the latest results from the S2S ForPAc real-time pilot study.
Dave MacLeod

10. Forecasting climate extremes to aid decisions on multi-week timescales
Catherine de Burgh-Day

11. Understanding and forecasting the subseasonal meteorological drivers of the European electricity system in winter
Hannah Bloomfield

12. Sub-seasonal Monsoon Onset forecasting over West Africa
Elisabeth Thompson

13. Using a statistical model to verify warm conveyor belts in ECMWF’s sub-seasonal forecasts
Julian Quinting

14. Enhanced extended-range predictability of the 2018 late-winter Eurasian cold spell due to the stratosphere
Lisa-Ann Kautz

15. Promising subseasonal forecasting results based on machine learning
Matti Kämäräinen

15:15-15:45 General Discussion on S2S predictability/Modelling issues

Session 2: Monday 4 May 16:15-18:00 PM CET

16:15-17:30 Discussion/questions on individual displays

16. A new approach to subseasonal multi-model forecasting: Online prediction with expert advice
Paula Gonzalez

17. Heatwaves over Europe: Identification and connection to large-scale circulation
Emmanuel Rouges

18. Is Tuning of Auto-conversion Important for the Realistic Simulation of Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations and MJO in Coupled Climate Model?
Ushnanshu Dutta

19. Lagged ensemble vs burst sampling strategy for initializing sub-seasonal forecasts
Frederic Vitart

20. Sub-seasonal precipitation forecast skills over China during the boreal summer monsoon
Yuan Li

21. Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation over the tropical western Pacific in boreal winter: Its climate influences on North America
Zizhen Dong

22. The influence of aggregation and statistical post-processing on the sub-seasonal predictability of European temperatures
Chiem van Straaten

23. Flow-dependent sub-seasonal forecast skill for Atlantic-European weather regimes
Dominik Büeler

24. Jet Latitude Regimes and the Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Kristian Strommen

25. Relationship between meningitis occurrence and atmospheric conditions over the African meningitis belt
Cheikh Dione

26. Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes (CAFE), ITN Project
Alvaro Corral

27. The potential predictability of Singapore and Maritime Continent weather regimes in relation to the MJO and ENSO
Mohammad Eeqmal Hassim

28. Subseasonal Forecasting of Aedes-borne Disease Transmission
Laurel DiSera

29. Quantifying the usefulness of European subseasonal forecasts using a real-world energy-sector framework
Joshua Dorrington

30 Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere in subseasonal to seasonal models hindcasts and influences on South America
Iracema Cavalcanti

17:30-18:00 General Discussion on S2S prediction/applications