The global monsoons in current, future and palaeoclimates and their role in extreme weather and climate events
Convener: Jianping Li | Co-conveners: Roberta D'AgostinoECSECS, Kyung-Ja Ha, Pascal Terray, Andrew Turner
| Attendance Tue, 05 May, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)

The global monsoon system and its regional monsoon components have profound impacts on society and are among the most complex phenomena involving coupled atmosphere-ocean-land interactions. Monsoons can cause severe floods and droughts in the tropics as well as undergoing climate variability on subseasonal, interannual and decadal or longer time scales. In addition to its profound local effects, monsoon variability is also associated with global-scale impacts since the energy released by monsoon systems can influence the global circulation. However, it is notoriously difficult to simulate and forecast the monsoons on temporal scales from numerical weather prediction (NWP), subseasonal-to-seasonal and interannual-to-decadal predictions, and longer timescale climate projections. A better understanding of monsoon physics and dynamics, with more accurate simulation, prediction and projection of monsoon systems is therefore of a great importance to society.

The combination of modern- and palaeo-monsoon research can help us better understand the fundamental nature of the monsoon and its variability. Comparisons of monsoon responses to large-scale forcings found in the palaeoclimate record can help us to understand how the monsoon will respond to changes in forcings in the future, potentially allowing us to constrain estimates of climate change. Similarly, the wealth of observations, reanalysis products and modelling work in the contemporary period can help us piece together data from point-proxy records of the past.

This session therefore invites presentations on all aspects of monsoon research in contemporary, future and palaeoclimate periods (observational, modeling, attribution, prediction and projection) from the natural and anthropogenic variability and predictability of the monsoon systems on multiple time scales, to the impact of monsoons on extreme weather and climate events (floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, heat waves, etc.), as well as the links between monsoons and global climate change and feedbacks with the biosphere. Theoretical works based on idealized planetary and ITCZ frameworks are also invited.

Public information:
10:45 Welcome
10:50 Arvind Singh: Increase in summer monsoon rains in northeast India during ENSO periods: a multiproxy analysis
10:58 Michael Byrne: Radiative effects of clouds and water vapour on the monsoon
11:06 Feng Shi: A reconstruction of the East Asian summer monsoon index over the past half millennium
11:14 Marcia Zilli Synoptic climatology and changes in precipitation associated with the SACZ using a cloud band identification technique
11:22 Qiaoling Ren: Effects of the Tibetan Plateau on East Asian Summer Monsoon via Weakened Transient Eddies
11:30 Tresa Mary Thomas: Statistics of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems in the Indian Subcontinent and Estimation of Related Extreme Rainfall Risk
11:38 Junbin Wang: Is the Current Subtropical Position of the Tibetan Plateau Optimal for Intensifying the Asian Monsoon?
11:46 Kyung-Ja Ha: Future changes of summer monsoon characteristics and evaporative demand over Asia in CMIP6 simulations
11:54 Marco Gaetani: Role of friction and orography in the Asian-African monsoonal system
12:02 Nitin Babu George: Abrupt transition in organized convection during the monsoon onset in central India and Climate change effect
12:10 Xin-Gang Dai: A climate classification: Mediterranean, monsoon and westerlies
12:18 Lun Dai: Classification and Diagnosis of Summer Monsoon Rainfall Patterns and their Potential Predictability in Southeast China