The continuation of the North Anatolian fault below the Marmara Sea is the segment where the next strong earthquake is expected after the 1999 Izmit event. Since the city of Istanbul is very close to the seismic gap the seismic risk is probably very high. Furthermore, the fault seems to be mature given the fact that the last major event struck the area in 1766 and a return period of approximately 250 years. However, to assess the hazard and risk in detail a number of open scientific key question have to be addressed that are critical to assess the seismic hazard in terms of maximum earthquake magnitude, location, nucleation area and rupture propagation direction. To better address these questions an integration of different geo-disciplines is essential in order to better describe the structural setting, rheology, temperature and density distribution, spatio-temporal deformation and all kinds of observation data ranging from satellite geodesy, seismology, geological to geomorphological.
The main goal of this session is to bring together researchers from various geodisciplines that contribute to a thorough understanding of the driving processes below the Sea of Marmara on different spatio-temporal scales. Furthermore, it is intended to identify open key-questions and future challenges. Contributions may regard, but are not limited to, studies of:
- Seismic Monitoring of the Marmara seismic gap
- Historical seismicity and paleoseismological investigations
- Co-, inter- and post-seismic observations and models
- Forward and inverse models of THM-processes and 3D subsurface structure
- Structural investigations from active profiling, receiver functions and tomography
- Interpretation and modelling of stress and strain observations
- Finite geologic strain versus geodetic strain
- Relationship between crustal deformation, heat flow and seismicity
- Seismic hazard and risk assessment and early warning systems