EGU21-16051, updated on 04 Mar 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16051
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Land-use change effects on biodiversity through mechanistic simulations: A case study with South-Asian mammals

Andre P. Silva1,2, Filip Thorn1,3,4, Damaris Zurell5, and Juliano Cabral6
Andre P. Silva et al.
  • 1Department Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Sweden (pintodasilva.a@gmail.com)
  • 2cE3c - Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Portugal
  • 3Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Sweden
  • 4Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Sweden
  • 5Institute Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Germany
  • 6Center for Computational and Theoretical Biology, University of Würzburg, Germany

Land-use change remains the main driver of biodiversity loss, and fragmentation and habitat loss are expected to lead to further population declines and species losses . We apply a recently developed R package for a spatially-explicit mechanistic simulation model (RangeShiftR), which incorporates habitat suitability, demographic as well as dispersal processes to understand temporal effects of land-use change (Land-use harmonization scenarios for the 1900-2100 period) on abundance and richness of mammalian species in South-Asia. We then compare land-use scenarios with and without protected areas to understand if current spatial conservation strategies are able to sustain viable populations independently of the land-use scenarios followed. Our approach is innovative in assessing how land-use scenarios can influence animal populations through underlying ecological processes.

How to cite: P. Silva, A., Thorn, F., Zurell, D., and Cabral, J.: Land-use change effects on biodiversity through mechanistic simulations: A case study with South-Asian mammals, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16051, 2021.

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