EGU21-16153
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16153
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Radiation and wind projections for Poland based on downscaled EuroCORDEX ensemble

Joanna Struzewska1,2, Maciej Jefimow1,2, Aneta Gienibor1, Maria Kleczek1, Anahita Sattari1,3, Malgorzata Zdunek1,2, Aleksander Norowski1, and Bartlomiej Walczak1
Joanna Struzewska et al.
  • 1Institute of Environmental Protection - National Research Institute
  • 2Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Building Services, Hydro and Environmental Engineering, Department of Environmental Protection and Management
  • 3Institute of Geophysics - Polish Academy of Sciences

Forecasted trends of solar radiation and wind speed serve as an input for climate risk assessment as well as the estimation of renewable energy potential in the future climate.

In the frame of the project “Adaption strategies to Climate Change in Poland” the projections of solar radiation and the wind speed were developed based on the EURO-CORDEX. The RCM results for an area covering central Europe with a resolution of 0.11 ° (approx. 12.5 km) were used. The analyses were carried out for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

 

To represent better the local variability the statistical downscaling was applied based on various historical gridded datasets (ERA5 and IMWM for the wind speed and ERA5, IMWM, and SARAH-II for the shortwave solar radiation). Ensemble analyses were undertaken to assess the projection uncertainty.

Solar radiation in the future climate shows a slight downward trend. The annual sum of solar radiation at the end of the century will decrease by 12 kWh/m2 to 40 kWh/m2, depending on the scenario. The most significant change will occur in eastern and north-eastern Poland. Forecasts of average wind speed values do not indicate significant changes in the 21st century, although the wind speed distribution showed changes in individual months - an increase in the winter and a decrease in the summer months.

Results are available via the interactive climate web portal https://klimada2.ios.gov.pl/klimat-scenariusze-portal/.

How to cite: Struzewska, J., Jefimow, M., Gienibor, A., Kleczek, M., Sattari, A., Zdunek, M., Norowski, A., and Walczak, B.: Radiation and wind projections for Poland based on downscaled EuroCORDEX ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16153, 2021.

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