EGU21-2185, updated on 09 Nov 2023
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Landslide-GLOF cascade at the expanding Jinwuco in Tibet, 2020: a clear consequence of anthropogenic climate change

Guoxiong Zheng1,2,3, Martin Mergili4,5, Adam Emmer4, Simon Allen2,6, Anming Bao1,3, Hao Guo7, and Markus Stoffel2,8,9
Guoxiong Zheng et al.
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 830011 Urumqi, China
  • 2Climatic Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA), Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
  • 3University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100049 Beijing, China
  • 4Institute of Geography and Regional Science, University of Graz, 8010 Graz, Austria
  • 5Institute of Applied Geology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), 1190 Vienna, Austria
  • 6Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland
  • 7School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, 276800 Rizhao, China
  •, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
  • 9Department of F.A. Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are amongst the most common and high-magnitude natural hydrological disasters in high-mountain regions that have resulted in severe casualties and socioeconomic losses over the last century. Here, we integrate various data and methods to analyse and reconstruct the GLOF process chain involving the moraine-dammed proglacial lake ‒ Jinwuco (30.356°N, 93.631°E) in eastern Nyainqentanglha, Tibet, China, which occurred on 26th June 2020. This lake underwent rapid expansion in area from 0.2 km2 to 0.56 km2 (1965-2020), and subsequently shrank to 0.26 km2 after the GLOF. Topographic reconstruction and empirical relationships indicate that the GLOF had a volume of 10 million m3, an average breach time of 0.62 hours, and an average peak discharge of 5,390 m3/s at the dam. Pre- and post-event high-resolution satellite scenes reveal a large progressive debris landslide originating from western lateral moraine. This landslide which occurred 5-17 days before the GLOF was most likely triggered by extremely heavy, south Asian monsoon-associated rainfall in June. The time lag between the landslide and the GLOF suggests that pre-weakening of the dam due to landslide-induced outflow pushed the system towards a tipping point, that was finally exceeded following subsequent rainfall, snowmelt, a secondary landslide, or calving of ice into the lake. We back-calculate a part of the GLOF process chain, using the GIS-based open source numerical simulation tool r.avaflow, considering two scenarios: Scenario A - a debris landslide-induced impact wave with overtopping and resulting retrogressive erosion of the moraine dam; and Scenario B - retrogressive erosion due to pre-weakening of the dam without a major impact wave. Both back-calculated scenarios yield plausible results which are in line with empirically derived ranges of peak discharge and breach time. The breaching process is characterized by a slower onset and a resulting delay in Scenario B, compared to Scenario A. Our evidence, however, points towards Scenario B. The 2020 Jinwuco GLOF caused severe destruction of infrastructure (e.g. roads and bridges) and property losses in downstream areas (no fatalities were reported).

This study corroborates the clear role of continued glacial retreat in destabilizing the adjacent lateral moraine slopes, and directly enabling the landslide to deposit into the expanding lake body. As such, the GLOF process chain can be robustly attributable to anthropogenic climate change, while downstream consequences have been driven by recent development of infrastructure on exposed flood plains. Such glacial lake related process chains could become more frequent under a warmer and wetter future climate, calling for comprehensive and forward-looking risk reduction planning. We anticipate our findings will provide critical new process understanding on GLOF triggering mechanisms and these new insights will improve GLOF hazard and risk assessment frameworks, highlighting the need to consider both complex instantaneous and gradual process chains.


How to cite: Zheng, G., Mergili, M., Emmer, A., Allen, S., Bao, A., Guo, H., and Stoffel, M.: Landslide-GLOF cascade at the expanding Jinwuco in Tibet, 2020: a clear consequence of anthropogenic climate change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2185,, 2021.


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