EGU21-42
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-42
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Modifying emissions data and projections to incorporate the effects of lockdown in climate modelling

Robin Lamboll1, Piers Forster2, Chris Jones3, Ragnhild Skeie4, Stephanie Fiedler5,6, Bjørn Samset4, and Joeri Rogelj1,7
Robin Lamboll et al.
  • 1Imperial College, Grantham Institute, London, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (rlamboll@imperial.ac.uk)
  • 2Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
  • 3Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
  • 4CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
  • 5Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, K ̈oln, Germany
  • 6Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics,9Bonn/Cologne, Germany
  • 7International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions, however emissions estimates are typically only available after one or more years, making it hard to incorporate these reductions into emissions projections. In this talk we will outline how mobility data and power usage can nowcast country-and-sector emissions of various gases. In this way we show that the short-term impact of lockdown on emissions data is not expected to be significant for long-term temperature trends.

We will also outline how different recovery pathways can be made using basic longer-term emissions projections and how to construct detailed scenarios for non-CO2 emissions, using assumptions about the effects of lockdown on nationally determined contributions and a new software package called Silicone that can infill missing greenhouse gas emissions. Silicone allows the consistent incorporation of tradeoffs between emission species as modelled by IAMs, and as expressed in available greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to be applied to the proposed pathways. We will then show how to make these projections into the more detailed, gridded, CMIP-6 compatible emissions estimates that are required to run General Circulation Models (GCM).

How to cite: Lamboll, R., Forster, P., Jones, C., Skeie, R., Fiedler, S., Samset, B., and Rogelj, J.: Modifying emissions data and projections to incorporate the effects of lockdown in climate modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-42, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-42, 2020.

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