EGU21-5830, updated on 04 Mar 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5830
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

CME arrival time predictions with a deformable front

Jürgen Hinterreiter1,2, Tanja Amerstorfer1, Martin A. Reiss1, Andreas J. Weiss1,2, Christian Möstl1, Manuela Temmer2, Maike Bauer1,2, Rachel L. Bailey3, and Ute V. Amerstorfer1
Jürgen Hinterreiter et al.
  • 1Space Research Institute Graz, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Graz, Austria (juergen.hinterreiter@oeaw.ac.at)
  • 2Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
  • 3Conrad Observatory, Zentralanstalt fur Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Vienna, Austria

We present the first results of our newly developed CME arrival prediction model, which allows the CME front to deform and adapt to the changing solar wind conditions. Our model is based on ELEvoHI and makes use of the WSA/HUX (Wang-Sheeley-Arge/Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation) model combination, which computes large-scale ambient solar wind conditions in the interplanetary space. With an estimate of the solar wind speed and density, we are able to account for the drag exerted on different parts of the CME front. Initially, our model relies on heliospheric imager observations to confine an elliptical CME front and to obtain an initial speed and drag parameter for the CME. After a certain distance, each point of the CME front is propagating based on the conditions in the heliosphere. In this case study, we compare our results to previous arrival time predictions using ELEvoHI with a rigid CME front. We find that the actual arrival time at Earth and the arrival time predicted by the new model are in very good agreement.

How to cite: Hinterreiter, J., Amerstorfer, T., Reiss, M. A., Weiss, A. J., Möstl, C., Temmer, M., Bauer, M., Bailey, R. L., and Amerstorfer, U. V.: CME arrival time predictions with a deformable front, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5830, 2021.

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