This session aims to place recently observed climate change in a long-term perspective by highlighting the importance of paleoclimate research spanning the past 2000 years. We invite presentations that provide insights into past climate variability, over decadal to millennial timescales, from different paleoclimate archives (ice cores, marine sediments, terrestrial records, historical archives and more). In particular, we are focussing on quantitative temperature and hydroclimate reconstructions, and reconstructions of large-scale modes of climate variability from local to global scales. This session also encourages presentations on the attribution of past climate variability to external drivers or internal climate processes, data syntheses, model-data comparison exercises, proxy system modelling, and novel approaches to producing multi-proxy climate field reconstructions.
Palaeoclimate modeling: from time-slices and sensitivity experiments to transient simulations into the future
Modelling past climate states, and the transient evolution of Earth’s climate remains challenging. Time periods such as the Paleocene, Eocene, Pliocene, the Last Interglacial, the Last Glacial Maximum or the mid-Holocene span across a vast range of climate conditions. At times, these lie far outside the bounds of the historical period that most models are designed and tuned to reproduce. However, our ability to predict future climate conditions and potential pathways to them is dependent on our models' abilities to reproduce just such phenomena. Thus, our climatic and environmental history is ideally suited to thoroughly test and evaluate models against data, so they may be better able to simulate the present and make future climate projections.
We invite papers on palaeoclimate-specific model development, model simulations and model-data comparison studies. Simulations may be targeted to address specific questions or follow specified protocols (as in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – PMIP or the Deep Time Model Intercomparison Project – DeepMIP). They may include anything between time-slice equilibrium experiments to long transient climate simulations (e.g. transient simulations covering the entire glacial cycle as per the goal of the PalMod project) with timescales of processes ranging from synoptic scales to glacial cycles and beyond. Comparisons may include past, historical as well as future simulations and focus on comparisons of mean states, gradients, circulation or modes of variability using reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, vegetation or tracer species (e.g. δ18O, δD or Pa/Th).
Evaluations of results from the latest phase of PMIP4-CMIP6 are particularly encouraged. However, we also solicit comparisons of different models (comprehensive GCMs, isotope-enabled models, EMICs and/or conceptual models) between different periods, or between models and data, including an analysis of the underlying mechanisms as well as contributions introducing novel model or experimental setups.
Integrating stratigraphy, sedimentology, paleoclimate and human evolution in- and out of Africa
What role did climate dynamics play in human evolution, the dispersal of Homo sapiens within and beyond the African continent, and key cultural innovations? Were dry spells, stable humid conditions, or rapid climate fluctuations the main driver of human evolution and migration? In order to evaluate the impact that different timescales and magnitudes of climatic shifts might have had on the living conditions of prehistoric humans, we need reliable and continuous reconstructions of paleoenvironmental conditions and fluctuations from the vicinity of paleoanthropological and archaeological sites. The search for the environmental context of human evolution and mobility crucially depends on the interpretation of paleoclimate archives from outcrop geology, lacustrine and marine sediments. Linking archeological data to paleoenvironmental reconstructions and models becomes increasingly important.
As a contribution towards a better understanding of these human-climate interactions the conveners encourage submission of abstracts on their project’s research on (geo)archaeology, paleoecology, paleoclimate, stratigraphy, and paleoenvironmental reconstructions. We especially welcome contributions offering new methods for dealing with difficult archive conditions and dating challenges. We hope this session will appeal to a broad audience by highlighting the latest research on paleoenvironmental reconstructions in the vicinity of key sites of human evolution, showcasing a wide variety of analytical methods, and encouraging collaboration between different research groups. Conceptual models, modelling results and model-data comparisons are warmly welcomed, as collaborative and interdisciplinary research.
Learning from the past? The role of extreme events and natural hazards in the human past
Extreme events and natural hazards are frequent occurrences on our unstable planet. They are predicted to become more common, severe and costly in the future and this session explores their role in human prehistory and history. In order to understand the potential of contemporary and future extreme events to impact human societies, it is critical to understand the mechanisms of how they may have occurred in the past, and elucidate their effects. This session invites contributions from across relevant disciplines. Global in scope and not limited to specific types of extreme events or natural hazards, we hope to compare and contrast differing methods and datasets that address the character and role of extreme events in the human past. Ultimately, we also seek to discuss how the evidence base of Pleistocene and Holocene calamities can be brought into play in the discussion about sustainability and disaster risk reduction in the Anthropocene, as well as to explore how extreme events may have shaped our past.
Conservation Paleobiology: insights from deep time to recent past
This session will focus on the emerging discipline of Conservation Paleobiology that uses the data from the fossil record and sedimentary archives to inform biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management. Even though humans have altered ecosystems for millennia, direct ecological observations rarely encompass more than the last few decades. At the same time, the accelerating pace of global climate change requires better understanding of the long-term resilience and adaptive capacities of ecosystems facing multiple stressors. The youngest fossil record can offer high-resolution insights into ecosystem change on timescales well beyond the limits of ecological monitoring, enabling the reconstruction of ecological baselines and natural range of variability. Additionally, the pre-Quaternary geologic record provides a series of natural experiments allowing assessment of biotic responses to major environmental perturbations, strengthening the theoretical foundations of conservation science.
We invite presentations offering both the near-time and deep-time perspective on ecological and evolutionary processes operating during times of rapid environmental changes, ranging from the Anthropocene biodiversity crisis to Phanerozoic mass extinction events. We also welcome contributions highlighting potential biases affecting the fossil record by linking stratigraphic, taphonomic and ecological patterns. We hope to stimulate discussion on novel opportunities and limitations of using different types of geohistorical data to address some of the most urgent questions in Conservation Biology.
Diagnosing causes and effects of abrupt climate, ecosystem and landscape change from the INTegration of Ice core MArine and TErrestrial records (INTIMATE)
The consequences and impact of climate change for ecosystems, landscapes and human societies depend on the rate, duration and nature of change. While paleoclimate archives provide ample records of such climatic variability, a lack of proxy sensitivity, in combination with chronological uncertainties in age models, often make it difficult to identify the actual agents of change for a specific region. A key example is the Younger Dryas (YD), which is expressed in Western Europe as a significant cold period, but also drying, which possibly lagged the cooling by a century or so. Contrary, in Eastern Europe, paleodata suggest that cooling was restricted to winter season, only, whereas summer temperatures were mostly stable. The resulting massive ecosystem change during the YD has been attributed variably to cooling as well as drying and/or possible changes in seasonality.
With significant advances in relative and absolute chronological techniques (e.g., tephrochronology and cosmogenic radionuclide synchronization) which enable the comparison of ecosystem responses on common timescales, as well as an increased proxy understanding and modelling, it is now becoming possible to disentangle the different components of the climate system and compare their responses over continental scales.
Focussing on the last glacial-interglacial cycle we invite contributions that assess, diagnose, model and quantify the agents of climatic change, as well as those that permit new insights into the rates during abrupt transitions. We particularly welcome research (including modelling studies) that address the importance of temperature, hydrological and seasonal changes using archives (e.g., ice core, marine and terrestrial), and those that advance our understanding of the responses of different paleoclimate proxies. A better understanding of both the cause AND effect of past abrupt climate changes and spatio-temporal differences is needed for a better prediction of the consequences of the anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
The state-of-the-art in ice coring sciences (StatICS)
The half-century since the first deep ice core drilling at Camp Century, Greenland, has seen extensive innovation in methods of ice sample extraction, analysis and interpretation. Ice core sciences include isotopic diffusion analysis, multiple-isotope systematics, trace gases and their isotopic compositions, ice structure and physical properties, high-resolution analysis of major and trace impurities, and studies of DNA in ice, among many others. Several projects (e.g. Beyond EPICA Oldest Ice) are to surface ice as old as 1.5 million years old from very compressed layers at the very bottom of the Antarctic ice sheet in the coming years. Analysis and interpretation of this ice will bring new challenges, including the potential for in situ processes to impact the climatic signals. Furthermore, a variety of ice cores have been drilled recently in the framework of the ICE MEMORY initiative to preserve environmental and climate information from glaciers threatened by climate change.
This session welcomes all contributions reporting the state-of-the-art in ice coring sciences, including drilling and processing, dating, analytical techniques, results and interpretations of ice core records from polar ice sheets and mid- and low-latitude glaciers, remote and autonomous methods of surveying ice stratigraphy, and related modelling research.
The pacing of the global climate system by orbital variations is clearly demonstrated in the timing of e.g. glacial-interglacial cycles. The mechanisms that translate this forcing into geoarchives and climate changes continue to be debated. We invite submissions that explore the climate system response to orbital forcing, and that test the stability of these relationships under different climate regimes or across evolving climate states (e.g. mid Pleistocene transition, Pliocene-Pleistocene transition, Miocene vs Pliocene, and also older climate transitions). Submissions exploring proxy data and/or modelling work are welcomed, as this session aims to bring together proxy-based, theoretical and/or modelling studies focused on global and regional climate responses to astronomical forcing at different time scales in the Phanerozoic.
Glacial/Interglacial variability over the last 1.5 Myr.
Over the last 1.5 Myr the rhythm of glaciations changed from a 40 kyr world to a 100 kyr world, known as the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). This transition does not follow directly from Milankovitch theory. Against the background of the start of a new deep drilling project in Antarctica (Beyond-Epica) covering this period in a few years from now, we encourage the broader paleo community to show their latest results on the mechanisms underlying the transition. We invite presentations on changes in proxies over this time as well as model studies providing insight in the processes and drivers of the Earth climate system over the MPT.
Polar climate and environmental change throughout geological time
Polar regions are particularly sensitive to climate variability and play a key role in global climate and environmental conditions through various feedback mechanisms. In this session we invite contributions dealing with all aspects of Phanerozoic (i.e. Cambrian to Holocene) geology from high latitude regions: stratigraphy, paleoenvironment, paleoclimate, and modelling.
Bridging records of tectonic and climatic forcings on the evolution of Central Asia: from Palaeozoic origins to Cenozoic aridification
Central Asia has witnessed profound changes in tectonic and climatic environments over its geologic past: Palaeozoic to Mesozoic closures of deep oceans and the amalgamation of major tectonic blocks laying the groundwork for Cenozoic fault reactivations since the India/Asia collision. The Cenozoic rise of intracontinental mountain ranges such as the Tianshan was accompanied by the retreat of Paratethys and the onset of intracontinental aridification. Major efforts bridging tectonic, geomorphic and climatic records are underway to understand (i) the tectonic origins of Central Asia and how these control its present-day landscape, (ii) individual responses to climatic and tectonic forcings, and their contribution to erosion and sediment deposition patterns, (iii) long-term interactions between climatic change and tectonic activity, (iv) and the role of topographic barriers, inland seas and global climate change in shaping regional climate and the aridification of the continental interior.
The primary goals of this session are two-fold. First, to provide a broad multidisciplinary spectrum of up-to-date studies in Central Asia that are concerned with the tectonic, climatic and geomorphic evolution of the region since the Palaeozoic. Second, to encourage future collaborations that not only overcome spatial and temporal scales but also bridge observations across disciplines leading to a more holistic view of intracontinental landscape evolution from an integrative tectonic, climatic and geomorphic perspective.
We welcome a wide variety of contributions ranging from, but not restricted to, geo(thermo-)chronological and geochemical analyses in the hinterland and sedimentary basins, structural and tectonic reconstructions, to geomorphologic, source-to-sink, neotectonics and regional climate studies including numerical approaches covering all time periods since the Palaeozoic across the whole of Central Asia.
Mountain glaciations potential and diversity: Glacial landforms and their palaeoclimatic interpretation
Mountain glaciations provide an invaluable record for past and present climate change. The utilization of this potential is, however, not trivial because of the wide diversity of formerly and currently glaciated mountain ranges. In addition to dynamic and interrelated geomorphological process-systems, their specific different climatic and glaciological conditions make any intra-hemispheric ad global correlations incredibly challenging. This problem is further enhanced by ongoing specialisation within the scientific community. Working groups primarily focusing on either individual topics or selected mountain regions often remain somewhat disconnected. Only by achieving significant bridging between specialised research communities progress with our understanding of the complex interactions within mountain ranges can be guaranteed.
The primary aim of this session is to evaluate the potential of mountain glaciations records and stimulate further research in this important field of research. Contributions on all relevant aspects are welcomed, for example: (a) glacial landforms and reconstruction of past glaciers, (b) dating techniques and geochronology compilations, (c) glacier dynamics and palaeoclimatic interpretations, or (d) impacts of ecosystems and human evolution/society. While we encourage submitting abstracts from all abovementioned or similar topics within the broad field of mountain glaciations, we would in particular like to invite contributions highlighting the specific conditions of mountain glaciations or addressing the relationship and connections between different of their aspects. To address the diversity of mountain glaciations, contributions from high-, middle-, and low-latitude mountain ranges as well as from continental to maritime regions are all welcomed. The time scale of the session will cover the whole time range from Early Pleistocene glaciations to the LGM and Holocene/modern glaciers.
During the past years, precursors of this session have steadily become more popular and attracted contributions from a wide range of research topics and study areas, both with a high diversity of methodological approaches. It has become a platform for everyone interested in the emerging collaborative research network “The Legacy of Mountain Glaciations” and given an opportunity to meet and exchange ideas and expertise.
Climate Change in the geological record: what can we learn from data and models?
The geological record provides insight into how climate processes may operate and evolve in a high CO2 environment and the nature of the climate system during a turnover from icehouse to greenhouse state — a transition that may potentially occur in the near future. In recent years we have seen major advances in many geochemical techniques and an increase in the complexity of Earth System Models. The aim of this session is to share progress in our understanding of global changes occurring during the pre-Quaternary based on the integration of geochemical/paleobotanical/sedimentological techniques and numerical models. Specifically, we encourage submissions describing research in which both model and data approaches are embedded. We invite abstracts that reconstruct Earth’s climate from the Cambrian to the Pliocene, investigate how the interconnections of the key surface reservoirs (vegetation-ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere-biogeochemistry) impact climate, and identify tipping points and thresholds. Pertinent themes may include greenhouse-icehouse transitions and intervals testifying for extreme changes.
The study of deep-time (pre-Quatrenary) climate evolution is important not only for understanding Earth’s habitable history but also for providing insights to present and future changes of the Earth system. To investigate deep-time climate, several international modelling intercomparsion projects, for example DeepMIP, MioMIP, PlioMIP, have been initiated. All these MIPs pay attention to the Cenozoic climate. However, relatively fewer modelling studies simulate climate in deeper time before the Cenozoic. This session invites works on deep-time climate simulations and reconstructions over the tectonic time scales, including, but not limited to, idealized and comprehensive model simulations, geological, geochemical, and paleontological reconstructions. We wish this session could integrate our knowledge of deep-time climate and environment evolution in the spirit of an integrated Earth system.
Early Earth: Dynamics, Geology, Chemistry and Life in the Archean Earth
Processes responsible for formation and development of the early Earth (> 2500Ma) are not well understood and strongly debated, reflecting in part the poorly preserved, altered, and incomplete nature of the geological record from this time.
In this session we encourage the presentation of new approaches and models for the development of Earth's early crust and mantle and their methods of interaction. We encourage contributions from the study of the preserved rock archive as well as geodynamic models of crustal and mantle dynamics so as to better understand the genesis and evolution of continental crust and the stabilization of cratons.
We invite abstracts from a large range of disciplines including geodynamics, geology, geochemistry, and petrology but also studies of early atmosphere, biosphere and early life relevant to this period of Earth history.
Erosion, which includes both physical erosion and chemical weathering, is a key parameter in controlling the dynamics of the Earth’s surface, soil production rates and the isostatic compensation of orogens. By influencing the atmospheric CO2 budget via silicate weathering and mechanical burial of organic carbon, erosion has in turn been held responsible for inducing and/or amplifying global cooling throughout the Cenozoic. Understanding "how, when, and where" erosion rates respond to natural climatic and tectonic changes and in return how denudation affects these processes is one of the most important challenges in the Earth Sciences today. How erosion
rates respond to the natural climatic changes that affect Earth, both on long (10 Myr) and short
timescales (<10 kyr) raises several open questions. There is notably no consensus on how global and regional erosion rates were modified after the major cooling that occurred 2.5 Ma, when Quaternary glacial cycles appeared on Earth, and the exact impact of this climatic cyclicity is still debated.
This session welcomes all studies based on any kind of archives and tools (geology, geochemistry, geophysics, remote sensing, numerical and analog modeling) that will improve our understanding of the links between climate and erosion, at any timescale (from year to million years), in variable climatic and tectonic settings.
Limnogeology - reading the geological record of lakes
During the past decades numerous sediment records have become available from lakes and paleolakes through shallow and (ICDP) deep drilling. These records have proven to be valuable archives of past climate and environmental change, human activities as well as tectonic and volcanic activity. We invite contributions emphasizing quantitative and spatial assessments of rates of change, causes and consequences of long- and short-term climate variability, impact, magnitude, and frequency of tectonic and volcanic activity as deduced from sedimentological, geochemical, biological, and chronological tools.
Tree rings are one of nature’s most versatile archives, providing insight into past environmental conditions at annual and intra-annual resolution and from local to global scales. Besides being valued proxies for historical climate, tree rings are also important indicators of plant physiological responses to changing environments and of long-term ecological processes. In this broad context we welcome contributions using one or more of the following approaches to either study the impact of environmental change on the growth and physiology of trees and forest ecosystems, or to assess and reconstruct past environmental change: (i) dendrochronological methods including studies based on tree-ring width, MXD or Blue Intensity, (ii) stable isotopes in tree rings and related plant compounds, (iii) dendrochemistry, (iv) quantitative wood anatomy, (v) ecophysiological data analyses, and (vi) mechanistic modelling, all across temporal and spatial scales.
Speleothem and Continental Carbonate Archives of Modern and Palaeoenvironmental Change
Speleothems and continental carbonates (e.g. travertines, pedogenic, lacustrine, subglacial and cryogenic carbonates) are important terrestrial archives, which can provide precisely dated, high-resolution records of past environmental and climate changes. The field of carbonate-based paleoclimatology has seen (1) continuously improving analytical capacity, producing detailed records of climate variability integrating established as well as novel and innovative techniques. (2) Long-term monitoring campaigns facilitating the interpretation of high-resolution proxy time series from carbonate archives. (3) At the same time proxy-system models can help understanding the measured proxies, by describing processes such as water infiltration, CO2 and carbonate dissolution, and carbonate precipitation and diagenesis. Applied together, advancements in these cornerstones of carbonate related research pave the way towards developing highly reliable quantitative terrestrial climate reconstructions.
Here, we invite contributions that show progress in one of the three outlined domains. We especially welcome integrated and interdisciplinary studies, connecting these branches of carbonate related research in order to better understand the climate system on various time scales.
(Paleo-)environmental reconstructions from biomineralized carbonates: From the Precambrian to the present
Carbonate (bio)minerals have played an essential role in the history of life on Earth, forming one of the most important archives for past climate and environmental change. Geochemical investigations have been crucial for understanding the evolution of microbial habitats and the paleobiology of carbonate biomineralizers since the Precambrian. With this session, we encourage contributions from sedimentology, geochemistry and biology that utilize carbonate (bio)minerals (e.g., microbialites, mollusk shells, and foraminifera) with the aim to reconstruct past environments, seasonality, seawater chemistry, and paleobiology in a wide range of modern to deep time settings, including critical intervals of environmental and climatic change. This includes theoretical or experimental studies of trace element partitioning and isotope fractionation and studies into original skeletal carbonate preservation and diagenetic alteration.
Climate services challenge the traditional interface between users and providers of climate information as it requires the establishment of a dialogue between subjects, who often have limited knowledge of each-other’s activities and practices. Increasing the understanding and usability of climate information for societal use has become a major challenge where economic growth, and social development crucially depends on adaptation to climate variability and change.
To this regard, climate services do not only create user-relevant climate information, but also stimulate the need to quantify vulnerabilities and come up with appropriate adaptation solutions that can be applied in practice.
The operational generation, management and delivery of climate services poses a number of new challenges to the traditional way of accessing and distributing climate data. With a growing private sector playing the role of service provider is important to understand what are the roles and the responsibilities of the publicly funded provision of climate data and information and services.
This session aims to gather best practices and lessons learnt, for how climate services can successfully facilitate adaptation to climate variability and change by providing climate information that is tailored to the real user need.
Contributions are strongly encouraged from international efforts (GFCS, CSP, ClimatEurope…); European Initiatives (H2020, ERA4CS, C3S, JPI-Climate…) as well as national, regional and local experiences.
Urban climate, urban biometeorology, and science tools for cities
As the most evident example of land use and land cover change, urban areas play a fundamental role in local to large-scale planetary processes, via modification of heat, moisture, and chemical budgets. With rapid urbanization ramping up globally it is essential to recognize the consequences of landscape conversion to the built environment. Given the capability of cities to serve as first responders to global change, considerable efforts are currently being dedicated across many cities to monitor and understand urban atmospheric dynamics and examine various adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed to offset impacts of rapidly expanding urban environments and influences of large-scale greenhouse gas emissions.
This session solicits submissions from both the observational and modelling communities examining urban atmospheric and landscape dynamics, processes and impacts owing to urban induced climate change, the efficacy of various strategies to reduce such impacts, and techniques highlighting how cities are already using novel science data and products that facilitate planning and policies on urban adaptation to and mitigation of the effects of climate change. Emerging topics including, but not limited to, compounding impacts with urban COVID-19 outbreaks or urban climate informatics, are highly encouraged.
Large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics are the major driver of near surface climatic and environmental variability. Synoptic climatology examines atmospheric circulation dynamics and their relationship with near surface environmental variables. Within synoptic climatological analyses, a wide variety of methods is utilized to characterize atmospheric circulation (e.g., circulation and weather type classification, regime analysis, teleconnection indices). Various linear and non-linear approaches (e.g., multiple regression, canonical correlation, neural networks) are applied to relate the circulation dynamics to diverse climatic and environmental elements (e.g., air temperature, air pollution, floods).
The session welcomes contributions from the whole field of synoptic climatology. This includes application studies for varying regions, time periods (past, present, future) and target variables and in particular contributions on the development and the comparison of methods (e.g., varying circulation type classifications) and conceptual approaches (e.g., circulation types versus circulation regimes).
High-impact climate and weather events typically result from the interaction of multiple hazards across various spatial and temporal scales. These events, also known as Compound Events, often cause more severe socio-economic impacts than single-hazard events, rendering traditional univariate extreme event analyses and risk assessment techniques insufficient. It is therefore crucial to develop new methodologies that account for the possible interaction of multiple physical drivers when analysing high-impact events. Such an endeavour requires (i) a deeper understanding of the interplay of mechanisms causing Compound Events and (ii) an evaluation of the performance of climate/weather, statistical and impact models in representing Compound Events.
The European COST Action DAMOCLES coordinates these efforts by building a research network consisting of climate scientists, impact modellers, statisticians, and stakeholders. This session creates a platform for this network and acts as an introduction of the work related to DAMOCLES to the research community.
We invite papers studying all aspects of Compound Events, which might relate to (but are not limited to) the following topics:
Synthesis and Analysis: What are common features for different classes of Compound Events? Which climate variables need to be assessed jointly in order to address related impacts? How much is currently known about the dependence between these variables?
Stakeholders and science-user interface: Which events are most relevant for stakeholders? What are novel approaches to ensure continuous stakeholder engagement?
Impacts: What are the currently available sources of impact data? How can they be used to link observed impacts to climate and weather events?
Statistical approaches, model development and evaluation: What are possible novel statistical models that could be applied in the assessment of Compound Events?
Realistic model simulations of events: What are the physical mechanisms behind different types of Compound Events? What type of interactions result in the joint impact of the hazards that are involved in the event? How do these interactions influence risk assessment analyses?
Predictions of climate from seasonal to (multi)decadal timescales (S2D) and their applications
Predictions of climate from seasonal to decadal time scales and their applications will be discussed in this session. With a time horizon from a few months up to thirty years, such predictions are of major importance to society, and improving them presents an interesting scientific challenge. This session aims to embrace advances in our understanding of the origins of seasonal to decadal predictability, as well as in improving the respective forecast skill and making the most of this information by building and testing new applications and climate services.
The session will cover dynamical as well as statistical predictions (including machine learning methods), and their combination. It will investigate predictions of various climate phenomena, including extremes, from global to regional scales, and from seasonal to multidecadal time scales ("seamless predictions"). Physical processes relevant to long-term predictability sources (e.g. ocean, cryosphere, or land) as well as predicting large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies associated to teleconnections will be discussed, as will observational and emergent constraints on climate variability and predictability on the seasonal-to-(multi)decadal time scale. Also, the time-dependence of the predictive skill, or windows of opportunity (hindcast period), will be investigated. Analysis of predictions in a multi-model framework, and ensemble forecast initialization and generation, including innovative ensemble approaches to minimize initialization shocks, will be another focus of the session. The session will pay particular attention to innovative methods of quality assessment and verification of climate predictions, including extreme-weather frequencies, post-processing of climate hindcasts and forecasts, and quantification and interpretation of model uncertainty. We particularly invite contributions presenting the use of seasonal-to-decadal predictions for risk assessment, adaptation and further applications.
Energy and moisture cycles: interactions and changes with large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation
Large-scale atmospheric circulation, hydrological cycle and heat/moisture transports are tightly intertwined by global patterns of energy contrasts which are sensitive to multiple forcings and feedbacks. In the tropics, cross-equatorial energy exchanges by the ocean and atmosphere couple Hadley Circulation and Atlantic Overturning circulation, and modulate the low-level mass convergence and the amount of precipitation in the ITCZ and in monsoon regions. In the extra-tropics, Rossby waves affect the distribution of precipitation and eddy activity, shaping the meridional heat transport from the low latitudes towards the Poles.
We invite submissions addressing the interplay between Earth’s energy exchanges and the general circulation using modeling, theory, and observations. We encourage contributions on the forced response and natural variability of the general circulation, understanding present-day climate and past and future changes, and impacts of global features and change on regional climate.
Precipitation modelling: uncertainty, variability, assimilation, ensemble simulation and downscaling
The assessment of precipitation variability and uncertainty is crucial in a variety of applications, such as flood risk forecasting, water resource assessments, evaluation of the hydrological impacts of climate change, determination of design floods, and hydrological modelling in general. Within this framework, this session aims to gather contributions on research, advanced applications, and future needs in the understanding and modelling of precipitation variability, and its sources of uncertainty.
Specifically, contributions focusing on one or more of the following issues are particularly welcome:
- Novel studies aimed at the assessment and representation of different sources of uncertainty versus natural variability of precipitation.
- Methods to account for different accuracy in precipitation time series, e.g. due to change and improvement of observation networks.
- Uncertainty and variability in spatially and temporally heterogeneous multi-source precipitation products.
- Estimation of precipitation variability and uncertainty at ungauged sites.
- Precipitation data assimilation.
- Process conceptualization and modelling approaches at different spatial and temporal scales, including model parameter identification and calibration, and sensitivity analyses to parameterization and scales of process representation.
- Modelling approaches based on ensemble simulations and methods for synthetic representation of precipitation variability and uncertainty.
- Scaling and scale invariance properties of precipitation fields in space and/or in time.
- Physically and statistically based approaches to downscale information from meteorological and climate models to spatial and temporal scales useful for hydrological modelling and applications.
Changes in seasonal timing affect species and ecosystem response to environmental change. Observations of plant and animal phenology as well as remote sensing and modeling studies document complex interactions and raise many open questions.
We invite contributions with cross-disciplinary perspectives that address seasonality changes based on recent plant and animal phenological observations, pollen monitoring, historical documentary sources, or seasonality measurements using climate data, remote sensing, flux measurements or modeling studies. Contributions across all spatial and temporal scales are welcome that compare and integrate seasonality changes, study effects of long-term climate change or single extreme events, emphasize applications and phenology informed decision-making, discuss species interactions and decoupling, advance our understanding of how seasonality change affects carbon budgets and atmosphere/biosphere feedbacks, and integrate phenology into Earth System Models.
We emphasize phenology informed applications for decision-making and environmental assessment, public health, agriculture and forest management, mechanistic understanding of the phenological processes, and effects of changing phenology on biomass production and carbon budgets. We also welcome contributions addressing international collaboration and program-building initiatives including citizen science networks and data analyses.
This session is organized by a consortium representing the International Society of Biometeorology (Phenology Commission), the Pan-European Phenology Network - PEP 725, the Swiss Academy of Science SCNAT, the TEMPO French Phenology Network and the USA National Phenology Network.
Drylands: paleoenvironmental and geomorphic perspectives and challenges
Arid to sub-humid regions contribute > 40 % to the global land surface and are home of more than 40 % of the world’s population. During prehistoric times many important cultures had developed in these regions. Due to the high sensitivity of dryland areas even to small-scale environmental changes and anthropogenic activities, ongoing geomorphological processes but also the Late Quaternary palaeoenvironmental evolution as recorded in sediment archives are becoming increasingly relevant for geomorphological, palaeoenvironmental and geoarchaeological research. Dryland research is also boosted by methodological advances, and especially by emerging linkages with other climatic and geomorphic systems that allow using dryland areas as indicator-regions of global environmental change.
This session aims to pool contributions from the broad field of earth sciences that deal with geomorphological processes and different types of sediment archives in dryland areas (dunes, loess, slope deposits, fluvial sediments, alluvial fans, lake and playa sediments, desert pavements, soils, paleosols etc.) at different spatial and temporal scales. Besides case studies from individual regions and archives, methodical and conceptual contributions, e.g. dealing with the special role of eolian, fluvial, gravitational and biological processes in dryland environments, their preservation over time in the sedimentary records, and emerging opportunities and limitations to resolve past and current dynamics, are especially welcome in this session.
Groundwater and water scarcity in dry regions: causes, processes, solutions
Groundwater is the world's most important, best protected and most exploited freshwater resource. It is intensively used by humans. It is also the primary source for drinking water supply and irrigation, hence critical to the global water-food-energy security nexus, especially in dry regions. Groundwater is sensitively to shifts in climate, which changes the hydrological cycle and thus groundwater recharge. Additionally, global changes such as population growth or changes in land use affect groundwater resources, both in terms of quantity and quality. Due to these changes, regions with high water stress are expected to expand globally. Beside regions that have already a water deficit, new regions, such as catchments in Central Europe with continental climate and decreasing precipitation in summer periods are likely to be subjected to water stress. The Mediterranean basin is also expected to become a major hot spot of water stress in the future.
Therefore, groundwater resources, especially in dry regions, need to be managed wisely, protected and especially used sustainably. In this session we invite contributions, which identify new consequences of a changing environment for better future management, protection, and sustainable use of groundwater. This implies adapted modelling techniques, such as coupling climate models with hydrological models, coupling climate models with soil water- and groundwater models. Furthermore, this includes also studies into groundwater quantity and quality changes and recharge mechanisms. In addition, we invite contributions from appropriate field observational studies.
Due to a frequently associated data scarcity issue in dry regions, methodologies, strategies, addressing uncertainty and limited data availability are also of interest for this session.
Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) – Observation, Modelling and Assessment in the Arctic-Boreal Domain
This session is linked to the Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX; www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex), a multi-disciplinary, -scale and -component climate change, air quality, environment and research infrastructure and capacity building programme. It is aimed at resolving major uncertainties in Earth system science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic, Northern Eurasia and China regions. This session aims to bring together researchers interested in (i) understanding environmental changes effecting in pristine and industrialized Pan-Eurasian environments (system understanding); (ii) determining relevant environmental, climatic, and other processes in Arctic-boreal regions (process understanding); (iii) the further development of the long-term, continuous and comprehensive ground-based, air/seaborne research infrastructures together with satellite data (observation component); (iv) to develop new datasets and archives of the continuous, comprehensive data flows in a joint manner (data component); (v) to implement validated and harmonized data products in models of appropriate spatio-temporal scales and topical focus (modeling component); (vi) to evaluate impact on society though assessment, scenarios, services, innovations and new technologies (society component).
List of topics:
• Ground-based and satellite observations and datasets for atmospheric composition in Northern Eurasia and China
• Impacts on environment, ecosystems, human health due to atmospheric transport, dispersion, deposition and chemical transformations of air pollutants in Arctic-boreal regions
• New approaches and methods on measurements and modelling in Arctic conditions;
• Improvements in natural and anthropogenic emission inventories for Arctic-boreal regions
• Physical, chemical and biological processes in a northern context
• Aerosol formation-growth, aerosol-cloud-climate interactions, radiative forcing, feedbacks in Arctic, Siberia, China;
• Short lived pollutants and climate forcers, permafrost, forest fires effects
• Carbon dioxide and methane, ecosystem carbon cycle
• Socio-economical changes in Northern Eurasia and China regions.
PEEX session is co-organized with the Digital Belt and Road Program (DBAR), abstracts welcome on topics:
• Big Earth Data approaches on facilitating synergy between DBAR activities & PEEX multi-disciplinary regime
• Understanding and remote connection of last decades changes of environment over High Asia and Arctic regions, both land and ocean.
Climate change and other drivers of environmental change: Developments, interlinkages and impacts in regional seas and coastal regions
It has been shown that regional climate change interacts with many other man-made perturbations in both natural and anthropogenic coastal environments. Regional climate change is one of multiple drivers, which have a continuing impact on terrestrial, aquatic and socio-economic (resp. human) environments. These drivers interact with regional climate change in ways, which are not completely understood. Recent assessments all over the world have partly addressed this issue (e.g. Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region, BACC (2008, 2015); North Sea Climate Change Assessment, NOSCCA (2011); Canada’s Changing Climate Report, CCCR (2019)).
This session invites contributions, which focus on the connections and interrelations between climate change and other drivers of environmental change, be it natural or human-induced, in different regional seas and coastal regions. Observation and modelling studies are welcome, which describe processes and interrelations with climate change in the atmosphere, in marine and freshwater ecosystems and biogeochemistry, coastal and terrestrial ecosystems as well as human systems. In particular, studies on socio-economic factors like aerosols, land cover, fisheries, agriculture and forestry, urban areas, coastal management, offshore energy, air quality and recreation, and their relation to climate change, are welcome.
The aim of this session is to provide an overview over the current state of knowledge of this complicated interplay of different factors, in different regional seas and coastal regions all over the world.
ENSO and Tropical Basins Interactions: Dynamics, Predictability and Modelling
ENSO and its interactions with other tropical basins are the dominant source of interannual climate variability in the tropics and across the globe. Understanding the dynamics, predictability, and impacts of ENSO and tropical basins interactions, and anticipating their future changes are thus of vital importance for society. This session invites contributions regarding all aspects of ENSO and tropical basins interactions, including: dynamics, multi-scale interactions; low frequency, decadal and paleo variability; theoretical approaches; ENSO diversity; global teleconnections; impacts on climate, society and ecosystems; seasonal forecasting and climate change projections of ENSO and its tropical basins interactions. Studies aimed at understanding ENSO and its tropical basins interactions in models of a range of complexity are especially welcomed, including analysis of CMIP model intercomparisons.
Global Change in Mediterranean Regions: Potential Impact of Climate Drift and Land Use on Soil Erosion
Mediterranean-climate regions are located across various parts of the globe and account for about 2% of the Earth’s surface. They are typically characterized by a unique climatic regime, with wet winters and warm, dry summers.
Presenting an extensive biodiversity, they are internationally recognized as being among the most sensitive regions to the impacts of climate change and anthropic actions.
In this context, soil erosion offers a critical perspective of future effects, as it is associated with a general degradation of the environment and depletion of soil nutrients due to the anthropic impacts of agricultural exploitation. In many Mediterranean areas, the interactions between climate and human activities have already led to a lack of short- and medium-term sustainability.
Although total rainfall is generally decreasing in these regions, the intensity of extreme events is expected to increase, leading to an alarming potential for climate change to increase soil erosion. Furthermore, many factors related to land use contribute to the aggravation of this phenomenon, such as changes in land use and erosive crops increasing soil loss.
This session is addressed to discuss and contribute to progress in the detection, monitoring, and modelling of soil erosion in Mediterranean areas with special attention on long term perspectives. These findings will be useful for the implementation of ecosystem services and especially for understanding, planning, solving, and mitigating soil erosion in this fragile environment.
Landslides and Soil Erosion in a Changing Climate: Analysis, Trends, Uncertainties and Adaptation Solutions
Climate change (CC) is expected affecting weather forcing regulating the triggering, reactivation, and severity of slope failures and soil erosion. In this view, the influence of CC can be different according to the area, the time horizon of interest and to the specific trends of weather variables. Similarly, land use/cover change can play a pivotal role in exacerbating or reducing such hazards.
Thus, the overall impacts depend on the region, spatial scale, time frame and socio-economic context addressed. However, even the simple identification of the weather patterns regulating the occurrence of such phenomena represents a not trivial issue, also assuming steady conditions, due to the crucial role played by geomorphological details. To support hazards’ monitoring, predictions and projections, last-generation and updated datasets with high spatio-temporal resolution and quality - like those from the Copernicus Services’ Portals - are useful to feed models, big-data analytics and indicators’ frameworks enabling timely, robust and efficient decision making.
The Session aims at presenting studies concerning ongoing to future landslide dynamics and soil erosion hazards across different geographical contexts and scales (from slope to regional, to global scale) including analyses of historical records and related climate variables, or modeling approaches driven by future climate exploiting downscaled output of climate projections. Studies assessing variations in severity, frequency and/or timing of events and consequent risks are valuable. Finally, tested or designed adaptation strategies can be discussed.
Agriculture is an important sector of any economy of the world. Agriculture productions are highly dependent on the climate change and variability. Changes in hydro-meteorological variables can influence crop yield and productivity at many places. Further, climate change can influence nutrient levels, soil moisture, water availability and other terrestrial parameters related to the agricultural productivity. Changes in the frequency and severity of droughts and floods could pose challenges for farmers and ranchers and threaten food safety. Further, changes in climate can influence meteorological conditions and thus can influence the crop growth pattern. It may also influence irrigation scheduling and water demand of the crops. The effects of climate change also need to be considered along with other evolving factors that affect agricultural production, such as changes in farming practices and technology.
The purpose of the proposed session is to gather scientific researchers related to this topic aiming to highlight ongoing researches and new applications in the field of climate change and agriculture. In this framework, original works concerned with the development or exploitation of advanced techniques for understanding the impact of climate change on agriculture will be invited.
The conveners of this session will encourage both applied and theoretical research in this area.
Building operational weather and climate services for sustainable development in the global South
Weather and Climate Services (WCS) involve the production, translation, delivery, and use of science-based information for decision-making. The production of WCS makes use of long-term climate projections, climate and weather predictions from daily to decadal timescales, historical hydrometeorological data, and sectoral models to predict risks of climate impacts to society. These services are developed and delivered in support of (i) climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, management of water resource, health, energy and disaster risk reduction, and (ii) developing countries where the vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events is high. This session, interdisciplinary in nature, aims at showcasing tools, products and methodologies that could be standardized for an operational and innovative system of WCS delivery in developing countries. The session invites contributions that include a) improvements of models and data analysis for WCS; b) engagement with end-users of WCS; c) assessment of the value of WCS’s outcomes and the corresponding impacts on societies and the environment; d) strategies for broad communication of WCS information to multiple audiences; and e) WCS partnerships between multiple stakeholders such as end-users, NGOs, government ministries, policymakers, and the private sector. The session particularly encourages lessons learned and results from different case studies coming from the global South.
Ocean-based negative emission technologies- useful tools to mitigate climate change?
To keep global warming below 2°C, rapid emission reductions will likely be supported with negative emission technologies (NETs) that pull CO2 out of the atmosphere and store it in other reservoirs. The ocean reservoir naturally takes up about 25% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Its storage capacity can potentially be increased through various ocean NETs including enhanced weathering, ocean fertilization, artificial upwelling, or ocean afforestation.
Removing carbon from seawater through engineered approaches or by harvesting of marine biomass to make biofuels or biochar, can also potentially reduce atmospheric CO2 as long as the extracted carbon is ultimately stored in another reservoir at the end of the process. These strategies have yet to be developed to scale, and their feasibility, costs, upscaling potential, environmental side-effects, and social and political implications are still largely unknown.
The goal of this session is to bring together scientists from various backgrounds related to ocean NETs to assess and discuss their feasibility, costs, as well as potential co-benefits and environmental risks. We explicitly also welcome experts working on the interface of ocean- and land-based NETs as well as, on social issues, ocean management-related questions, and legal aspects.
Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have become fundamental tools to study climate processes and
climate change projections at the regional to local scale, and the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) has become a central program within the RCM modeling community. This session accepts papers on a wide range of topics pertaining the field regional climate modeling and applications, including: recent developments in RCM science; added value of RCMs; applications of RCMs to regional climate change projection; development and application of coupled regional Earth System Models (including interactive atmosphere, ocean, chemistry/aerosol, biosphere and cryosphere components); development and application of convection-permitting RCMs; completion and/or analysis of CORDEX experiments, both single model simulations and multi-model ensembles; completion and/or analysis of experiments within the CORDEX-CORE and CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies programs; application of RCM output to vulnerability, impacts and adaptation studies; application of RCMs to climate service activities.
Reducing uncertainty in regional climate responses to anthropogenic aerosol emissions
Anthropogenic aerosol plays a key role in driving climate anomalies over a range of spatial and temporal scales, both near the emission location and remotely through teleconnections. Aerosols can interact with radiation and clouds, directly and through absorption, microphysics and circulation, and thereby modify the surface and atmospheric energy balance, cloud dynamics and precipitation patterns, and the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. This session addresses progress in understanding the mechanisms and pathways by which aerosols affect regional climate features, overall, over the historical era, and in the near future. We encourage contributions on new model and observation-based approaches to investigate the effects of aerosols on regional decadal climate variability and extremes, tropical-extratropical interactions and teleconnections, and the interplay with modes of variability such as the NAO, AMO, and PDO. Focus studies on monsoon, midlatitude, and Arctic responses, extreme precipitation, circulation changes, daily variability, CMIP6 projections of high and low aerosol futures, and investigations using large ensemble simulations are welcome.
Climate change in the North Atlantic in CMIP6 simulations
In this session, we invite presentations that investigate CMIP6 (or other, similarly co-ordinated) simulations.
Analysis of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is now well underway. Here, we focus on analyses of coordinated simulations undertaken through, or parallel to, the CMIP protocol, with a particular focus on historical simulations and future projections. We are particularly interested in analyses that involve a role for the North Atlantic region, either in evaluating/describing simulated/projected variability or in the North Atlantic’s remote effect on other regions. We are interested in (multi)model evaluation, mechanisms of variability, as well as impact analysis. Multimodel analyses are especially welcome as are critical comparisons between models and observations.
We invite presentations that investigate CMIP (or similarly co-ordinated) simulations on topics including, but not limited to, the following:
-o- The historical and future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
-o- Projected changes in the strength and location of the jet stream
-o- Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), including future changes and the role of internally/externally forced variability
-o- Projections or mechanisms of changes in hurricane activity
-o- The drivers and impacts of Arctic ice melt
-o- The hydrological cycle and freshening of the North Atlantic, including “hosing” simulations
-o- Teleconnections between the North Atlantic and remote regions including over land
Climate change in mediterranean climate-type zones
Mediterranean climate is characterized by mild, wet winters and hot, dry summers thus making the interested climatic zones among the most desirable for human inhabitation. Mediterranean climate zones are located in transitional midlatitude regions like the Mediterranean basin area, western North America as well as over small areas of western South America, Southern Africa and southern Australia. This classification based on Koppen-Geiger approach is well suited for identifying and analyzing the impacts of climate change on natural and anthropic ecosystems. The transitional character with sharp spatial gradients makes Mediterranean climate-type zones highly vulnerable to climate change. Future climate projections indicate an intensification of the seasonality over these regions, as well as potential migration of these climate regions towards the poles with the equatorward margins likely replaced by arid climate-type. For all mediterranean climate-type regions, the future is expected to provide large issues to face for biodiversity and water availability, including climate adaptation and mitigation measures.
This session aims bringing together studies on different aspects of climate and climate change focused on the Mediterranean climate-type regions of the world. Physical (including extremes, teleconnections, hydrological cycles) and biogeochemical (including biodiversity) approaches but also social aspects (including impacts and adaptation measures) are welcome, either in terms of observed past changes or future climate projections.
Tipping points and (in)stabilities in polar climate components
Feedbacks between the ice sheets, oceans, atmosphere and global climate remain uncertain under past, present and future climates. In particular, ice core and marine sediment records suggest that some parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) have remained stable during past interglacials, while the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and other parts of the AIS may have become unstable, potentially leading to rapid ice loss and sea level rise. Tipping points in modern ice sheets and polar seas need evaluating so that the risk of rapid, potentially irreversible sea level rise under ongoing climate warming can be assessed with more confidence. In addition, the influences of increasing melt water fluxes on ice-ocean interactions and on global climate need to be understood in more detail. In this session we are particularly interested in (1) the likely dynamic stability or instability of ice sheets and polar seas in the near future, based on evidence from their past or present behaviour, and (2) feedbacks between rapid ice loss, ocean circulation, sea ice and the atmosphere. We welcome contributions addressing these issues based on model simulations, modern observations, paleo evidence and theory.
Bridging the gap between land-based cryosphere changes and local sea-level rise projections and impacts
Sea-level rise (SLR) is highly variable in space and time, as it results from a combination of many processes working at different temporal and spatial scales. In the 20th century, SLR was mainly caused by oceanic thermal expansion and the mass loss of glaciers. In recent decades, however, the two ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland have increasingly contributed to SLR. As highlighted in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, the main uncertainty in projections of future SLR is our limited ability to model the dynamics of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and robustly predict the potential emergence and rate of their collapse. Although the relative contribution of ice sheet mass loss to SLR will increase over the 21st Century, glaciers will continue to make a significant SLR contribution that must also be better quantified. Moreover, local SLR differs from global-mean change, so it is important to better understand and quantify the regional coastal implications in order to support relevant mitigation and adaptation strategies. This session aims at bridging the gap between scientific communities interested in projecting changes in the land-based cryosphere,
with fully quantified uncertainties, in order to produce robust global, regional and local projections of SLR on timescales from decades to multi-centennial and their implications.
Bringing together climate scientists and impact modellers to build knowledge to effectively deal with climate change
As highlighted by the UN development goals, climate change is a reality to which we need to adapt. Our ability to effectively address the adaptation issue must come from a communal effort to link our knowledge in different fields and transform it into useful information for stakeholders and policymakers.
Up to now, physical climate modelling and natural hazard impact and risk assessment have been two separate disciplines that have suffered difficulties in communicating and interacting due to different languages and backgrounds. Until recently, climate modellers did not have the capability to generate long-term projections at a spatial and temporal resolution useful for impact studies such as flood risk assessment, soil erosion or urban modelling. With the advent of kilometre-scale atmospheric models, called convection-permitting models CPMs, we are now in a position to bridge the gap between the two communities, sharing knowledge and understanding. Compared to traditional climate models, CPMs improve substantially the representation of sub-daily precipitation characteristics and have a spatial resolution closer to what many impacts modellers, for example hydrologists, need. Several CPM datasets are already available over different parts of the world and more internationally coordinated projects on CPMs, such as the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study (CORDEX-FPS) and the European Climate Prediction System (EUCP), are already in place. Now is the time to exploit these high-resolution physically-consistent datasets as input for impact studies and adaptation strategies; to foster interdisciplinary collaboration to build a common language and understand limitations and needs of the different fields; to learn together how to provide policymakers with information and practical cases that can be used to design effective measures at the regional level to adapt to climate change as well as to inform mitigation decisions.
This interdisciplinary session invites contributions that address the linkages between high-resolution modellers and users with examples of good practice, storylines and communication to both stakeholders and policymakers.
Detecting and attributing climate change: trends, extreme events, and impacts
Detecting and attributing the fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change in long-term observed climatic trends is an active area of research. Though the science is well established for temperature related variables, the study of other climate indicators including hydrometeorological variables pose greater challenges due to their greater complexity and rarity.
Complementary to this, assessing the extent to which extreme weather events, including compound events, are attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a rapidly developing science, with emerging schools of thought on the methodology and framing of such studies. Once again, the attribution of hydrometeorological events, is less straightforward than temperature-related events. The attribution of impacts, both for long-term trends and extreme events is even more challenging.
This session solicits the latest studies from the spectrum of detection and/or attribution approaches. By considering studies over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales we aim to identify common/new methods, current challenges, and avenues for expanding the detection and attribution community. We particularly welcome submissions that compare approaches, or address hydrometerological trends, extremes and/or impacts – all of which test the limits of the present science.
Challenges in climate prediction: multiple time-scales and the Earth system dimensions
One of the big challenges in Earth system science consists in providing reliable climate predictions on sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal and longer timescales. The resulting data have the potential to be translated into climate information leading to a better assessment of multi-scale global and regional climate-related risks.
The latest developments and progress in climate forecasting on subseasonal-to-decadal and longer timescales will be discussed and evaluated. This will include presentations and discussions of predictions for a time horizon of up to ten years from dynamical ensemble and statistical/empirical forecast systems, as well as the aspects required for their application: forecast quality assessment, multi-model combination, bias adjustment, downscaling, etc.
Following the new WCPR strategic plan for 2019-2029, prediction enhancements are solicited from contributions embracing climate forecasting from an Earth system science perspective. This includes the study of coupled processes, impacts of coupling and feedbacks, and analysis/verification of the coupled atmosphere-ocean, atmosphere-land, atmosphere-hydrology, atmosphere-chemistry & aerosols, atmosphere-ice, ocean-hydrology, ocean-ice, ocean-chemistry and climate-biosphere (including human component). Contributions are also sought on initialization methods that optimally use observations from different Earth system components, on assessing and mitigating the impacts of model errors on skill, and on ensemble methods.
We also encourage contributions on the use of climate predictions for climate impact assessment, demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate-change adaptation and the development of early warning systems.
A special focus will be put on the use of operational climate predictions (C3S, NMME, S2S), results from the CMIP5-CMIP6 decadal prediction experiments, and climate-prediction research and application projects (e.g. EUCP, APPLICATE, PREFACE, MIKLIP, MEDSCOPE, SECLI-FIRM, S2S4E).
An increasingly important aspect for climate forecast's applications is the use of most appropriate downscaling methods, based on dynamical or statistical approaches or their combination, that are needed to generate time series and fields with an appropriate spatial or temporal resolution. This is extensively considered in the session, which therefore brings together scientists from all geoscientific disciplines working on the prediction and application problems.
Earth resilience and tipping dynamics in the Anthropocene
In 2015, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement on climate recognised the deteriorating resilience of the Earth system, with planetary-scale human impacts constituting a new geological epoch: the Anthropocene. Earth system resilience critically depends on the nonlinear interplay of positive and negative feedbacks of biophysical and increasingly also socio-economic processes. These include dynamics in the carbon cycle, large-scale ecosystems, atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere that can absorb geophysical shocks (e.g. volcanic eruptions), as well as the dynamics and perturbations associated with human activities.
Maintaining Earth in the Holocene-like interglacial state within which the world’s societies evolved over the past ~10,000 years will require industrialised societies to embark on rapid global-scale socio-economic transformations. In addition to incrementally increasing environmental hazards, there is a risk of crossing tipping points in the Earth system triggering partly irreversible and potentially cascading changes.
In this session we invite contributions on all topics relating to Earth resilience, such as assessing the biophysical and social determinants of the Earth’s long-term stability, negative feedback processes, modelling and data analysis and integration of nonlinearity, tipping points and abrupt shifts in the Earth system, and the potential for rapid social transformations to global sustainability.
Integrating sudden and extreme changes in the anthropogenic and biogenic greenhouse gases
Climate change is causing abrupt changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) cycles, either by altering biogenic fluxes, or changes in anthropogenic emissions as witnessed during the Covid-19 pandemic. Hence, we need to integrate all feedbacks taking place between the climate system and the GHG cycles. While the Covid-19 shutdown led to 17% reduction in daily global CO2 emissions, large forest-fires erupted across the Americas, Australia and the Arctic circle in 2019 and 2020, releasing greenhouse gases and destroyed forests which take up CO2. Global warming leads to early, long summers causing droughts and forests fires. 2018 was one of the driest summers in Europe, resulting in forest carbon sinks decreasing or even turning forests into sources in some cases. Anomalously high solar radiation also led to extreme algal blooms in the Baltic Sea. Thus the feedbacks between the climate system and GHG cycles are multi-dimensional and complex, and need inter-disciplinary research.
For this session, we invite abstracts from observational and modeling studies examining and integrating extreme changes in GHGs (biogenic and/or anthropogenic) and their feedbacks to the climate system. For example (but not limited to):
1. Aftermath of COVID-19 lockdown, emerging into the new normal.
2. Effect of forest fires in 2019 and 2020 on regional to global scale.
3. Warm and wet winter of 2019/2020 and its impact on terrestrial and marine ecosystems.
4. Dry and hot European summers and subsequent droughts since 2018.
Mechanisms of soil organic matter stabilization and carbon sequestration
Soil organic matter (SOM) is well known to exert a great influence on physical, chemical, and biological soil properties, thus playing a very important role in agronomic production and environmental quality. Globally SOM represents the largest terrestrial organic C stock, which can have significant impacts on atmospheric CO2 concentrations and thus on climate. The changes in soil organic C content are the result of the balance of inputs and losses, which strongly depends on the processes of organic C stabilization and protection from decomposition in the soil. This session will provide a forum for discussion of recent studies on the stabilization and sequestration mechanisms of organic C in soils, covering any physical, chemical, and biological aspects related to the selective preservation and formation of recalcitrant organic compounds, occlusion by macro and microaggregation, and chemical interaction with soil mineral particles and metal ions.
The physical record of the Anthropocene in geological archives
The session asks for well-dated geoarchives that document the physical evidence of the transition from the Late Holocene (Meghalayan) to the Anthropocene. These may include artificial deposits, lake, estuary or marine sediments, peat, speleothems, ice core or biological hosts such as trees or corals, displaying good chronologies. The evidence for an Anthropocene can include transitions in the types and abundance of physical materials, biota, or distinct geochemical signals; ideally the study should provide multiple proxies or consider innovative new techniques in recognising the Anthropocene. We are interested in presentations that show continuous to near continuous records that can extend hundreds or even thousands of years back in time, but should also include comparable analysis through the mid-20th century to near present day. The presentations should explain how, if at all, the Anthropocene can be distinguished in these archives. Studies from any continent will be considered, though presentations on archives from South America and Africa are especially encouraged.
Peatland records of climate change and anthropogenic impact
Peatlands have become increasingly recognized as a useful archive of palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic archives. They offer a wide range of proxies (physical, geochemical and biological). Their global occurrence and high accumulation rates allow developing the past environmental change history of sub-decadal to millennial scales. This provides a potential means for the investigation of the interactions between past climatic dynamic and anthropogenic activities at various time and spatial scales.
This session encourages submissions from all aspects of research dealing with peatlands records of climate change and anthropogenic impacts. Studies trying to provide more evidence for better understanding of the global definition of the Anthropocene and to distinguish the natural and human induced changes are particularly welcomed.
Geoarchaeological records of human-landscape interaction: from a nature-dominated world to the Anthropocene
Documenting the diversity of human responses and adaptations to climate, landscapes, ecosystems, natural disasters and the changing natural resources availability in different regions of our planet, cross-disciplinary studies in Geoarchaeology provide valuable opportunities to learn from the past. Furthermore, human activity became a major player of global climatic and environmental change in the course of the late Quaternary, during the Anthropocene. Consequently, we must better understand the archaeological records and landscapes in context of human culture and the hydroclimate-environment nexus at different spatial and temporal scales. This session seeks related interdisciplinary papers and specific geoarchaeological case-studies that deploy various approaches and tools to address the reconstruction of former human-environmental interactions from the Palaeolithic period through the modern. Topics related to records of the Anthropocene from Earth and archaeological science perspectives are welcome. Furthermore, contributions may include (but are not limited to) insights about how people have coped with environmental disasters or abrupt changes in the past; defining sustainability thresholds for farming or resource exploitation; distinguishing the baseline natural and human contributions to environmental changes. Ultimately, we would like to understand how strategies of human resilience and innovation can inform our modern strategies for addressing the challenges of the emerging Anthropocene, a time frame dominated by human modulation of surface geomorphological processes and hydroclimate.
Nature-Based Solutions for Global Environmental Challenges
Nature-based Solutions (NBS) are reframing discussion and policy responses worldwide to environmental challenges. Thus, NBS is of growing implementation, supported namely by the EU political agenda (e.g., green deal), as a way to attain the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), and to reinforce the New Urban Agenda. The NBS concept builds on and complements other closely related concepts, such as the ecosystem approach, ecosystem services, ecosystem-based adaptation/mitigation, disaster risk reduction and, sponge cities, green/blue infrastructures. They all recognise the importance of nature and outline requirements for a systemic and holistic approach to environmental change, based on an understanding of the structure and functioning of ecosystems, and the social and institutional context within which they are situated. However, quantification of existing NBS’ effectiveness, their operationalisation and replication in different environmental settings has not been presented in such a way that allows them to be both widely accepted and incorporated in policy development and in practical implementation.
This session aims to discuss and advance knowledge of innovative nature-based approaches to face environmental challenges and simultaneously provide better understanding of associated social-ecological interactions, contributing to enhance the scientific basis for sustainable development and resilience. We seek contributions that provide novel conceptualisations, approaches, applications and evidence for understanding how NBS can contribute towards achieving UN SDG.
This session seeks to:
- Better understanding of advantages and disadvantages of NBS to address global environmental and societal challenges;
- New methods and tools to investigate the role of NBS in the context of environmental change; in particular, the effectiveness of NBS for hydro-meteorological risk reduction at landscape/watershed scale;
- New insights, methodologies, tools and best practices enabling successful implementation and upscaling of NBS in multiple contexts;
- Identifying opportunities for and barriers to NBS within current regulatory frameworks and management practices;
- Presenting overviews and case studies of NBS projects that also involve the private sector and market-based mechanisms;
- Interactions between NBS and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Natural disturbance, forest management, and ecosystem functioning
Natural disturbances in forests, including windthrow events, insect infestations, wildfires and droughts have intensified in severity, frequency, and extent over the last few decades, and ongoing climate change is predicted to further accelerate these trends. If disturbance regimes exceed ecosystem resilience thresholds, forests may change to a new permanent state (e.g. turnover of tree species composition) or may convert fully into non-forest ecosystems.
Forest management practices can influence both the resistance and resilience of a forest ecosystem to its disturbances, in terms of outcomes for biodiversity, nutrient cycling, and the biochemical and physical properties of landscapes. Promotion of mixed species forestry, for instance, can increase stand stability against windthrow, and might decrease forests’ vulnerability to insect attacks or drought. Retention of dead wood, on the other hand, is thought to enhance the recovery of forest structure and complexity, as well as above and below-ground diversity. Type, scale and intensity of disturbance events, along with pre- and post-disturbance management practices, may ultimately lead to changes in vegetation dynamics and plant-soil-atmosphere interactions.
In this session, we hope to stimulate scientific exchange among ecological research disciplines, broaden the view on how forest management shapes forest susceptibility to natural disturbances, and draw attention to how management can alleviate post-disturbance effects on ecosystem functioning. We aim to bring together research spanning from tree and soil processes at the microscale to landscape-level dynamics. We invite contributions investigating natural forest disturbances and pre- and post-disturbance management practices from a variety of perspectives, including:
• Vegetation dynamics;
• Plant physiology;
• Soil sciences;
Contributions based on observational, experimental, and modeling studies as well as reviews and syntheses are welcome.
Hazard and risk assessment of climate related impacts on Agricultural and Forested Ecosystems using Remote Sensing and modelling
Significant recent changes in climate are linked to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and weather-related events such as heat and cold waves, floods, wind and snow storms, droughts, wildfires, tropical storms, dust storms, etc. This underscores the critical need for: (i) monitoring such events; (ii) evaluating the potential risks to the environment and to society, and; (iii) planning in terms of adaptation and/or mitigation of the potential impacts. The intensity and frequency of such extreme weather and climate events follow trends expected of a warming planet, and more importantly, such events will continue to occur with increased likelihood and severity.
Agricultural and forested areas cover large surfaces over many countries and are a very important resource that needs to be protected and managed correctly for both the environment and the local communities. Therefore, potential impacts deriving from a changing climate and from more frequent and intense extreme events can pose a serious threat to economic infrastructure and development in the coming decades, and also severely undermine food, fodder, water, and energy security for a growing global population.
Remote Sensing that includes the use of space, aerial and proximal sensors provide valuable tools to monitor, evaluate and understand ecosystem response and impacts at local, regional, and global scales based on spatio-temporal analysis of long-term imagery and related environmental data. Further, studies allowing the quantitative or qualitative evaluation of the risks, including integrating environmental and socio-economical components are particularly important for the stakeholders and decision-makers at all administrative levels. Thus, it is important to better understand links between climate change/extreme events in relation to associated risks for better planning and sustainable management of our resources in an effective and timely manner.
Model regions for sustainable development, resilience to climate extremes and ecosystem services
The Global Risk Report 2020 ranked the likelihood for climate related risk as the most dominant long-term risks including extreme weather events, climate action failure and biodiversity loss. Furthermore, the intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) global assessment stated that climate change is one of the main drivers for unprecedented biodiversity loss, which unknown consequences for ecosystem services and human wellbeing.
Besides, we have global targets to transform our world in a sustainable way, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals to be reached until 2030. Hence, the implementation of the SDGs should lead to a decrease in climate-related risks, strengthening resilience to climate extremes, and contribute to the supply and equitable distribution of ecosystem services.
Model regions for sustainable development, such as UNESCO designated Biosphere Reserves established by the UNESCO Man and the Biosphere Programme and UNESCO designated Geoparks, bring the opportunity to study this interplay between global goals and local resilience. Such local activities can show solutions to strengthen resilience to climate extremes and ecosystem services in line with SDGs, e.g. by. using ecosystem-based approaches.
In addition, long-term observational datasets such as NEON, ICOS, FLUXNET, Copernicus data can be used to monitor climate extremes and changes in ecosystem services thus contributing to the assessment of resilience in these regions.
In this transdisciplinary session we welcome research focusing on this interplay between sustainable development, ecosystem services and resilience to climate extremes. We want to invite abstracts that focus on 1) conceptual frameworks and tools to assess how sustainable development can strengthen climate resilience and/or ecosystem services 2) transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary research on sites in various regions such as UNESCO designated Biosphere Reserves and Geoparks that showcase solutions and 3) long-term observations that are used to assess resilience to climate extremes and changes in ecosystem services.
Climate extremes, biosphere and society: impacts, cascades, feedbacks, and resilience
Extreme climate and weather events, associated disasters and emergent risks are becoming increasingly critical in the context of global environmental change and interact with other stressors. They are a potential major threat to reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and one of the most pressing challenges for future human well-being.
This session explores the linkages between extreme climate and weather events, associated disasters, societal dynamics and resilience.
Emphasis is laid on 1) Which impacts are caused by extreme climate events (including risks emerging from compound events) and cascades of impacts on various aspects of ecosystems and societies? 2) Which feedbacks across ecosystems, infrastructures and societies exist? 3) What are key obstacles towards societal resilience and reaching the SDGs, while facing climate extremes? 4) What can we learn from past experiences? 5) What local to global governance arrangements best support equitable and sustainable risk reduction?
We welcome empirical, theoretical and modelling studies from local to global scale from the fields of natural sciences, social sciences, humanities and related disciplines.
Hydroclimatic conditions and the availability of water resources in space and time constitute important factors for maintaining an adequate food supply, the quality of the environment, and the welfare of inhabitants, in the context of sustainable growth and economic development. This session is designed to explore the impacts of hydroclimatic variability, climate change, and the temporal and spatial availability of water resources on: food production, population health, the quality of the environment, and the welfare of local ecosystems. We particularly welcome submissions on the following topics:
- Complex inter-linkages between hydroclimatic conditions, food production, and population health, including: extreme weather events, surface and subsurface water resources, surface temperatures, and their impacts on food security, livelihoods, and water- and food-borne illnesses in urban and rural environments.
- Quantitative assessment of surface-water and groundwater resources, and their contribution to agricultural system and ecosystem statuses.
- Spatiotemporal modeling of the availability of water resources, flooding, droughts, and climate change, in the context of water quality and usage for food production, agricultural irrigation, and health impacts over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales.
- Intelligent infrastructure for water usage, irrigation, environmental and ecological health monitoring, such as development of advanced sensors, remote sensing, data collection, and associated modeling approaches.
- Modelling tools for organizing integrated solutions for water, precision agriculture, ecosystem health monitoring, and characterization of environmental conditions.
- Water re-allocation and treatment for agricultural, environmental, and health related purposes.
- Impact assessment of water-related natural disasters, and anthropogenic forcings (e.g. inappropriate agricultural practices, and land usage) on the natural environment; e.g. health impacts from water and air, fragmentation of habitats, etc.
Regional groundwater quality, availability and sustainability: advances, methods and approaches
Population growth, agriculture expansion, climate change and variability, and inadequate management have resulted in the degradation of groundwater availability and quality in many regions around the world, which constrains sustainable food production and reliable water supply and has devastating effects on groundwater-dependent ecosystems sustaining the livelihood of millions of people. While urgently needed, regional strategies for groundwater sustainability have been challenged by the complex nature of groundwater systems, which depend on multi-scale heterogeneous topography and geology, fluctuating climate, changing land use and anthropogenic forcing, and the common pool nature of groundwater. Disentangling this complexity and developing adequate modeling frameworks in support of decision making is important to sustain our present and future needs of groundwater while preserving ecosystems. This session seeks contributions that (i) unravel the combined action of topography, geology, climate, land use and anthropogenic forcing in controlling regional groundwater availability, quality and sustainability; and (ii) propose new methods (e.g., coupled modeling approaches) for assessing and managing regional groundwater systems in diverse climatic, hydrologic, socio-economic and institutional settings, and accounting for uncertainty.
Potential impact of global change on soil properties with focus on hydrological processes
Soil is a fragile system and it is more and more under the pressures of climatic and anthropic action. Climate projections for the XXI Century predict a generalized non-negligible change in terms of temperature and rainfall and thus water availability, runoff, river flow, and drought frequency.
Thus, in the interaction between precipitation, temperature and land use, the effect of global change on soil properties, particularly soil structure, may be relevant. However, because of the complexity and the ubiquitous heterogeneity of these interactions, it is difficult to extrapolate from a general qualitative prediction to effective reactions.
With regard to the interactions between soil physics and biome, answers will be sought to the following questions: How will soil respond to these disturbances? Can we assume some adaptive behaviours as we consider a large soil type? Will these changes mainly affect soil conservation, biodiversity or agricultural production?
We propose this session with the aim of providing a common discussion platform on the processes and their possible impacts on ecosystem services and communities.
The global cryosphere with all its components is strongly impacted by climate change and has been undergoing significant changes over the past decades. Glaciers are shrinking and thinning. Snow cover and duration is reduced, and permafrost, in both Arctic and alpine environments, is thawing. Changes in sea ice cover and characteristics have attracted widespread attention, and changes in ice sheets are monitored with care and concern. Risks associated with one or several of these cryosphere components have been present throughout history. However, with ongoing climate change, we expect changes in the magnitude and frequency of hazards with profound implications for risks. New or growing glacier lakes pose a threat to downstream communities through the potential for sudden drainage. Thawing permafrost can destabilize mountain slopes, and eventually result in large landslide or destructive rock and ice avalanches. An accelerated rate of permafrost degradation in low-land areas poses risk to existing and planned infrastructure and raises concerns about large-scale emission of greenhouse gases currently trapped in Arctic permafrost. Decreased summertime sea ice extent may produce both risks and opportunities in terms of large-scale climate feedbacks and alterations, coastal vulnerability, and new access to transport routes and natural resources. Furthermore, rapid acceleration of outlet glacier ice discharge and collapse of ice sheets is of major concern for sea level change. This session invites contributions across all cryosphere components that address risks associated with observed or projected physical processes. Contributions considering more than one cryosphere component (e.g. glaciers and permafrost) are particularly encouraged, as well as contributions on cascading processes and interconnected risks. Contributions can consider hazards and risks related to changes in the past, present or future. Furthermore, contributions may consider one or several components of risks (i.e. natural hazards, exposure, vulnerability) as long as conceptual clarity is ensured.
Social Geosciences: A New Paradigm to Characterize Long-Term Community Resilience
: It is clear that in the coming decades, our ability to effectively address and provide critical information regarding some of the most pressing human-environment issues, such as water security, food security, public health, land preservation and management within existing social frameworks (i.e., gender, class, ethnicity/castes, employment and migration, etc.) that usually manifest at local and regional scales, will necessitate a paradigm shift in the ‘earth systems’ sciences, in which, the human society is viewed and understood as an active player of the ‘earth system’. This new paradigm shift can only be achieved via enhanced partnership between natural scientists and social scientists and most importantly, where field practitioners and environmental planners, who work with at-risk local communities, are able to both inform research directions and questions that are human needs focused as well as are able to communicate the results of the collaborative research back to the community in an effective manner.
In fostering such a ‘stake-holder’ focused, collaborative and ‘engaged research’ space, geoscientists, particularly those whose research focuses on environmental and climate records of the Anthropocene (and late Holocene), could play a key role by developing tools, methods, and most importantly, by providing relevant, high-resolution historical records of variations and changes in climate, environment and ecosystems at regional and local scales. Extensive data on local and regional environmental change can allow social scientists to understand environmental changes in the context of existing social norms, market mechanisms, agro-environmental policy and public attitudes. The co-development, conduct and outcome of such stake-holder focused research can also help fill the knowledge gap in vulnerable local communities, potentially making communities more resilient to climate and environmental change, especially in developing countries, where weak institutions and public distrust are major hindrances to effectiveness of public policy. To start building such a ‘stake-holder’ focused collaborative research space we propose this session, where we are inviting contributions from scientists and practitioners working at the interface of earth science and community engagement. We seek contributions from the paleo research community that is human needs focused and contribute towards improved understanding of community resilience to climate change.
Climate literacy: Learning, education, methods and roadmaps
Climate change (CC) is the greatest threat to humanity and to Earth’s biodiversity, and affects every single living being and every ecological niche, with poorer communities suffering disproportionately. Many geosciences are thus directly confronted by CC. Geoethics provides an ethical framework to address such challenges to a sustainable future.
However, relatively little is being done to provide opportunities to help people round the world to learn about the changes that are affecting their and their offspring’s lives. The more people are knowledgeable about the changes affecting their lives, the more they will be able to make informed decisions and to adapt and mitigate. In the wake of the 2020 EGU Declaration of the Significance of Geoscience, it is clear that Climate Literacy/Learning (CL) is an imperative that needs to be addressed massively and urgently, both within and beyond the EGU. Geosciences and geoethics can play a significant role in furthering CL.
CL has developed in recent years. Areas of improvement include school curricular, teacher training, educational games, citizen initiatives and EGU sessions, such as the pioneering 2018 and 2019 Climate Change Education sessions. However, much work still needs to be done, for example, to make CL an essential component in all subjects, and at all levels throughout the education system. The aims of such CL might include encouraging an intergenerational outlook, developing a sense of the geoethical dimensions of CC, understanding the complexities and finding solutions acceptable to a broad range of stakeholders. In the poorer parts of the world, where CC impact is greatest and resources are scarce, CL is in its infancy and even more urgent.
We invite colleagues to submit contributions on any aspects of climate literacy – on learning processes, instructional materials, learning methods and experiences, and curricular innovation to promote greater CL. The full spectrum of CC science that might be covered by CL can be included, such as GHGs, reinforcing feedback, energy systems, heatwaves, sea-level rise, oceans, carbon cycle, ice melt, communication, attitudes, gender issues, health, political influence, activism, behavioural change and geoethics. The session is an opportunity for people (ECSs, scientists, educators, policy influencers, learning resource developers and other experts) to share their experience, expertise and research on effective ways of improving CL, to better fight CC.
Geosciences at your service! Geoscientific solutions applied to current issues.
Research in geosciences is often focused on deciphering the past or predicting the future, but tackling current, practical issues is also a crucial part of our work. Geoscientific methods can be applied on all scales: from very local, such as landslide monitoring, through regional, such flood prediction and mitigation, to global, such as the transition towards net-zero energy sources, or plastic pollution in the oceans. Often, the consideration of how processes occurred in the past provide vital baselining information for current issues.
Geoscience research and industry have benefitted mutually for many years, especially in hydrocarbon and mineral exploration, and in engineering geology. But now more than ever, skills that geoscientists use in their research are required to provide a diverse range of technological solutions that benefit society positively; such as offshore wind, geothermal energy, carbon capture and storage, as well as providing safe living spaces, protecting coastal infrastructure, and securing drinking and agricultural water supplies for growing populations.
In this session we aim to bring together and showcase the applied side of geoscientific research. We encourage all contributions that showcase how geoscientific methods were or are being used to help tackle issues at hand for the benefit of communities, governments or industry partners.
This session seeks to:
- Showcase where geosciences make a real difference and is having transformative impact;
- Identify current issues which could benefit from application of geoscientific methods;
- Spark discussion about how the geoscientific research can be best used to solve future problems;
- Present innovative, geoscience-based methods and solutions applied to current challenges.
Effective communication of scientific & place-based knowledge of Arctic change: understanding interactions between indigenous & local knowledge, and natural & social science perspectives
World-wide an increasing number of research projects focus on the challenges associated with changes in the Arctic regions. Whereas these often have a natural and physical science focus, this session focuses on trans-disciplinary approaches to study the multiple phenomena associated with global warming, especially but not exclusively in Arctic regions. Another focus is to understand better how to tackle these in large, trans-disciplinary research projects, initiatives and programs (e.g. HORIZON2020 Nunataryuk, INTAROS and the T-MOSAIC program of the International Arctic Research Council, NSF Navigating the New Arctic), as well as communicating results effectively to the public in terms of outreach and education. Contributions are invited, but are not limited, to the following themes:
• science communication, education and outreach tools, and co-production of knowledge
• integration of social and natural science approaches
• indigenous and collaborative approaches to adaptation and mitigation, equitable mitigation, and risk perception
• socio-economic modelling in relation to Arctic environmental change,
• examining the impacts of permafrost thaw and other phenomena on health and pollution as well as infrastructure (and consequences of the built environment).
One of the aims of this session is to bring together researchers from both social and natural sciences who are involved or interested in reaching out to stakeholders and the general public, and share successful experiences. Examples from past, ongoing and future initiatives that include traditional indigenous knowledge and scientific tools and techniques are welcome.
We are also excited to let you know that our ERL special issue called 'Focus on Arctic Change: Transdisciplinary Research and Communication’ is now open for submission. See the webpage: https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326/page/Focus_on_Arctic_Change_Transdisciplinary_Research_and_Communication Please consider submitting your manuscript until or preferably before the 31st of May 2021.
Bridging between scientific disciplines: Participatory Citizen Science and Open Science as a way to go
Citizen science (the involvement of the public in scientific processes) is gaining momentum across multiple disciplines, increasing multi-scale data production on biodiversity, earthquakes, weather, climate, health issues and food production, amongst others, that is extending the frontiers of knowledge. Successful participatory science enterprises and citizen observatories can potentially be scaled-up in order to contribute to larger policy strategies and actions (e.g. the European Earth Observation monitoring systems), for example to be integrated in GEOSS and Copernicus. Making credible contributions to science can empower citizens to actively participate as citizen stewards in decision making, helping to bridge scientific disciplines and promote vibrant, liveable and sustainable environments for inhabitants across rural and urban localities.
Often, citizen science is seen in the context of Open Science, which is a broad movement embracing Open Data, Open Technology, Open Access, Open Educational Resources, Open Source, Open Methodology, and Open Peer Review to transparently publish and share scientific research - thus leveraging Citizen Science and Reproducible Research. Both open science and citizen science pose great challenges for researchers to facilitate effective participatory science. To support the goals of the various Open Science initiatives, this session looks at what is possible and what is applied in geosciences. The session will showcase how various stakeholders can benefit from co-developed participatory research using citizen science and open science, acknowledging the drawbacks and highlighting the opportunities available, particularly through applications within mapping, technology, policy, economy, practice and society at large. Learning from bottom-up initiatives, other disciplines, and understanding what to adopt and what to change can help synergize scientific disciplines and empower participants in their own undertakings and new initiatives.
We want to ask and find answers to the following questions:
Which approaches can be used in Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences?
What are the biggest challenges in bridging between scientific disciplines and how to overcome them?
What kind of participatory citizen scientist involvement and open science strategies exist?
How to ensure transparency in project results and analyses?
What kind of critical perspectives on the limitations, challenges, and ethical considerations exist?
Navigating the Anthropocene: Human agency in global society-environment interaction assessments and modelling approaches
The pressure of human activities on the Earth System has reached a scale where abrupt global environmental changes can no longer be excluded and gradual changes are accelerating at alarming rates. Simply continuing established political efforts to “decouple” GDP from resource use and GHG emissions will not suffice to achieve the absolute reductions required to avoid catastrophic climate change and reduce rising pressures on ecosystems. Hence, a socioecological transformation of resource use patterns is required that will imply significant non-linear deviations from past trajectories.
The question then arises, to what extent and how societies actually have agency to actively shape, accelerate and steer such a required transformation? Human agency refers to the ability to shape one’s life, or the collective ability to change the course of social action. Individual agency is reflected in individual choices and the ability to influence one’s life conditions and chances. Collective agency refers to situations in which individuals pool their knowledge, skills, and resources, and act in concert to shape their future.
Complex systems, such as our planet and human societies, cannot be fully controlled and their behaviour cannot be predicted. Nevertheless, some authors argue it possible to imperfectly navigate such systems. The questions that we are going to discuss in the session include:
i. How to navigate the humanity in the Anthropocene?
ii. What are the relevant dimensions of human agency to study human-environment system interactions?
iii. Which concepts and research methods are relevant for the research on human agency?
iv. How to operationalize human agency in global human-environmental system modelling efforts?
We are in particular interested in new approaches that would go beyond the rational choice and equilibrium paradigms. Such approaches should be able to explain and demonstrate system evolution pathways, system transitions, tipping points, and tipping interventions. They should be able to include human agents who operate under the conditions of resource scarcity and conflicting interests, and take decisions in the presence of high risk and uncertainty.
The Importance of Being Global – Globally coordinated Research Infrastructures to support the UN system
The UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is an urgent call for a global partnership for action. The new paradigm of the Paris Agreement puts additional responsibility on scientists to provide data and knowledge to inform climate action for the benefit of society. Together with the other UN conventions (on biological diversity and on disaster risk reduction), these frameworks are highly dependent on evidence-based information derived from geosciences. After having developed crucial capacities on the regional level, Research Infrastructures and other data providers need to upgrade their cooperation efforts and coordinate their actions on the global level. They must ensure a sustainable production of data, products and services in line with the demands of the decision-makers. To deliver on the expectations of the UN system in support of policy-makers, actors from different disciplines (observation, modeling, reporting…) have to intensify their collaborative efforts.
In this session, we welcome abstracts presenting the recent developments in international cooperation efforts, global integration of data sets, initiatives to support climate services and especially the Monitoring, Reporting and Verification mechanism of the Paris Agreement. We also wish to stage the role of disciplines belonging to the human and social fields in achieving the objective.
The next generation of earth observation products and applications for climate risk financing
In recent years, weather index insurance and other anticipatory financial instruments have become important tools that can allow the world’s 2.5 billion smallholder farmers to better manage climate risk, enabling investment and sustainable growth in the agricultural sector. Historical and near real-time data are necessary to design, calibrate and validate insurance indices or to develop risk models. Furthermore, these data help to understand when insurance payouts are triggered, and when compensation should be paid. However, key challenges in the scaling of these financial instruments include limited data availability, data quality and accessibility of affected regions on-ground. In addition, the distribution of weather stations, which are often central for the validation of satellite-derived products, is both insufficient and uneven in many regions of the world.
Earth observation can help to overcome these shortcomings. Increasing data quality, but also spatial, temporal and spectral resolutions of freely available remote sensing data (e.g. the Copernicus Sentinel missions) offer an invaluable opportunity for developing advanced risk financing products. However, there are still many technical and perception-related uncertainties with regard to the consideration and added-value of satellite-derived information. Some guiding questions are: Which variable performs best with regard to minimizing basis risk? How is performance measured in the face of limited socioeconomic impact and loss data? When and where does it make sense to combine variables from different sources of information? How do climate trends affect payout structures? How can quantitative and qualitative (expert assessments) payout triggers be combined? What are the most urgent needs for technical capacity building?
This session aims to 1) illustrate the latest advances in remote sensing science related to climate risk financing; and 2) to discuss how remote sensing solutions can be mainstreamed into advanced financial instruments in low-income countries. The topic is of interest to a growing international community of researchers, development agencies, and private industry partners concerned with the application of financial instruments to address hazards, such as floods, droughts, tropical cyclones or wildfires. Also, climate-related hazards, such as Malaria or locust infestations, will be considered.
Towards a net-zero world: remaining carbon budgets, climate response to different emission pathways, and implications for policy
Remaining carbon budgets specify the maximum amount of CO2 that may be emitted to stabilize warming at a particular level (such as the 1.5 °C target), and are thus of high interest to the public and policymakers. Yet, there are many sources of uncertainty which make it challenging to estimate the remaining carbon budget in real world conditions, especially for ambitious mitigation targets.
This session aims to further our understanding of the climate response under different emission scenarios, with particular interest in emission pathways towards net-zero targets, and to advance our knowledge of associated carbon budgets consistent with meeting various levels of warming. We invite contributions that use a variety of tools, including fully coupled Earth System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, or simple climate model emulators.
We welcome studies exploring different aspects of climate change in response to future emission scenarios, in addition to studies exploring carbon budgets and the TCRE framework, including: the governing mechanisms behind linearity of TCRE and its limitations, effects of different forcings and feedbacks (e.g. permafrost carbon feedback) and non-CO2 forcings (e.g. aerosols, and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases), estimates of the remaining carbon budget to reach a given temperature target (for example, the 1.5 °C warming level from the Paris Agreement), the role of pathway dependence and emission rate, the climate-carbon responses to different emission scenarios (e.g. SSP scenarios, idealized scenarios, or scenarios designed to reach net-zero emission level), and the behaviour of TCRE in response to artificial carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere (i.e. CDR or negative emissions). Contributions from the fields of climate policy and economics focused on applications of carbon budgets and