EGU22-12053
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12053
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Fitting and extrapolation of transient behaviour in the presence of tipping points

Peter Ashwin1, Robbin Bastiaansen2, and Anna von der Heydt2
Peter Ashwin et al.
  • 1Dept of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK (p.ashwin@exeter.ac.uk)
  • 2IMAU, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands

One of the key problems in climate science is to understand the asymptotic behaviour of a climate model, such as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), from finite time computations of transients of a model that may be complex and realistic. Typically, this is done by fitting to some simpler model and then extrapolating to an asymptotic state. But how do transients behave in the presence of tipping points? More precisely, how much warning can one get of an approaching tipping point? In this work we highlight an illustrative example showing how a good fit of a transient to a simpler model does not necessarily guarantee a good extrapolation, and discuss some other implicit assumptions that may arise when estimating quantities such as ECS.

How to cite: Ashwin, P., Bastiaansen, R., and von der Heydt, A.: Fitting and extrapolation of transient behaviour in the presence of tipping points, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12053, 2022.

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