EGU22-12357, updated on 28 Mar 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12357
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Analysis of Historical Climate Scenarios of Turkey related to temperature and precipitation for comparing CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols.

Ipeknur Hazar1, Aleyna Nur Aksu2, Buket Yogun3, Bahattin Can Dursun4, and Elcin Tan5
Ipeknur Hazar et al.
  • 1Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorological Engineering, Maslak, 34469 İstanbul, Turkey (hazar18@itu.edu.tr)
  • 2Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorological Engineering, Maslak, 34469 İstanbul, Turkey (aksual18itu.edu.tr)
  • 3Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorological Engineering, Maslak, 34469 İstanbul, Turkey (yogun18@itu.edu.tr)
  • 4Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorological Engineering, Maslak, 34469 İstanbul, Turkey (dursunbah18@itu.edu.tr)
  • 5Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorological Engineering, Maslak, 34469 İstanbul, Turkey (elcin.tan@itu.edu.tr)

In the last decade, records have been broken in Turkey's temperature and precipitation observations. In 2020, including the effect of increasing urbanization, the measured temperatures in Istanbul were about 3 °C higher than the 100-year monthly average. In addition, the frequency and intensity of excessive precipitation, especially in northern Turkey, show an increasing trend. Moreover, the change in precipitation patterns is also observed due to climate change. Therefore, to decide Turkey's strategies to combat climate change, it is necessary to determine how accurately the climate model results reflect these changes. For this reason, this study aims to determine the biases of the historical climate models compared with observations. Moreover, comparisons of these models with mild and dramatic scenarios in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols are discussed. The climate models (INM-CM4 and INM-CM5; CNRM-CM5.2 and CNRM-CM6-1; and MRI-ESM1 and MRI-ESM2-0) that were not analyzed before were studied to construct an ensemble overall. Thus, it is aimed to create climate model ensembles for temperature and precipitation. Accuracies of the selected climate models are analyzed by comparing the results of the models with the observations in the 1965-2015 periods utilizing ten-year probability distribution fractions. In addition, simple Daily precipitation intensity index (ECASDII), precipitation days index (ECAPD), extremely wet days index (ECAR99P) analyzes for precipitation and very warm days index (ECATX90P), warm nights index (ECATN90P), and intra-temperature analysis for precipitation. -period extreme temperature range (ECAETR) indices were analyzed. Preliminary results show that climate models simulate temperature changes more accurately than precipitation changes for Turkey. In addition, CMIP6 results were more advantageous than CMIP5 results.

How to cite: Hazar, I., Aksu, A. N., Yogun, B., Dursun, B. C., and Tan, E.: Analysis of Historical Climate Scenarios of Turkey related to temperature and precipitation for comparing CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12357, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12357, 2022.

Displays

Display file