EGU22-2120
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2120
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Influence of the NAO on wintertime surface air temperature over the East Asia: multidecadal variability and decadal prediction

Jianping Li1,2, Tiejun Xie3, Xinxin Tang1, Hao Wang1, Cheng Sun3, Juan Feng3, Fei Zheng4, and Ruiqiang Ding5
Jianping Li et al.
  • 1Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System-Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography-Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies-Academy of the Future Ocean, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China(ljp@ouc.edu.cn)
  • 2Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate, Pilot Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China(ljp@ouc.edu.cn)
  • 3College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
  • 4State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
  • 5State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

In this paper, we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature (EASAT) and its decadal prediction. The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT (EAmSAT) display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60–80-year multidecadal variability, apart from a long-term warming trend. The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades, which is conducive to the occurrence of winter extremely cold events in East Asia in recent years. The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12–18 years with a maximumly significant positive correlation at the leading time of 15 years. Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability, but does not affect the robust leading relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT. We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge (COAB) mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of ~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Africa–Asia multidecadal teleconnection (AAMT) pattern. Based on the COAB mechanism an NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed, with good hindcast performance. The winter EASAT for 2020–2034 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until ~2025, implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia, and then turn towards sharp warming. The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.

Keywords: winter East Asian surface air temperature (EASAT), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection (AAMT) pattern, coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge (COAB), multidecadal variability.

How to cite: Li, J., Xie, T., Tang, X., Wang, H., Sun, C., Feng, J., Zheng, F., and Ding, R.: Influence of the NAO on wintertime surface air temperature over the East Asia: multidecadal variability and decadal prediction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2120, 2022.