EGU22-2172, updated on 27 Mar 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2172
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Flood responses to increases in rainfall extremes vary depending on event severity

Manuela Irene Brunner1, Daniel Swain2, Raul Wood3, Florian Willkofer3, James Done2, Eric Gilleland2, and Ralf Ludwig3
Manuela Irene Brunner et al.
  • 1Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany (manuela.brunner@hydrology.uni-freiburg.de)
  • 2National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, United States
  • 3Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians University Munich, Munich, Germany

There is clear evidence that precipitation extremes will increase in a warming climate. However, the hydrologic response to this increase in heavy precipitation is more uncertain - and there is little historical evidence for systematic increases in flood magnitude despite observed increases in precipitation extremes. These dual realities yield a paradox with considerable practical relevance: will the divergence between extreme precipitation increases and flood severity persist, or are land-surface processes at work?  Here, we investigate how flood magnitudes in hydrological Bavaria change in response to warming using a single model initial condition large climate ensemble coupled to a hydrological model (hydro-SMILE). We find that there exists a severity threshold above which precipitation increases clearly yield increased flood magnitudes, and below which flood magnitude is modulated by land surface processes. Our findings highlight the importance of large ensembles and help reconcile climatological and hydrological perspectives on changing flood risk in a warming climate.

How to cite: Brunner, M. I., Swain, D., Wood, R., Willkofer, F., Done, J., Gilleland, E., and Ludwig, R.: Flood responses to increases in rainfall extremes vary depending on event severity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2172, 2022.

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