EGU22-5540
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5540
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project 

Laura Wilcox1, Robert Allen2, Susanne Bauer3,13, Massimo Bollasina4, Annica Ekman5, James Keeble6, Anna Lewinschal5, Marianne Lund7, Joonas Merikanto8, Declan O'Donnell8, David Paynter9, Geeta Persad10, Steven Rumbold1, Bjørn Samset7, Toshihiko Takemura11, Kostas Tsigaridis3,13, Sabine Undorf12,5, and Daniel Westervelt3,13
Laura Wilcox et al.
  • 1National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK (l.j.wilcox@reading.ac.uk)
  • 2University of California, Riverside
  • 3NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies
  • 4University of Edinburgh
  • 5Stockholm University
  • 6University of Cambridge
  • 7CICERO Centre for International Climate Research
  • 8Finnish Meteorological Institute
  • 9NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
  • 10The University of Texas at Austin
  • 11Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Japan
  • 12Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • 13Columbia University

The uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing is currently the largest source of uncertainty in estimates of the magnitude of the total anthropogenic forcing on climate, and changes in aerosol emissions are likely important for regional climate over the next few decades. This is especially the case for Africa and Asia where large aerosol emission changes are anticipated, and where aerosol has played an important role in historical changes. Uncertainty in near-term projections due to the substantial spread in aerosol (or their precursor) emissions pathways is compounded by uncertainty in the simulated response to these emissions, so a multi-model framework is needed to identify robust changes.  

Several earlier studies have explored the climate response to regional aerosol perturbations, with interesting, but not always consistent, results. Using these studies to inform our understanding of the potential role of aerosol in near-future changes is not straightforward. Many are based around equilibrium experiments that are challenging to use to interpret transient simulations, and the effects of different experimental designs are difficult to separate from the effects of structural differences between the models. In Regional Aerosol MIP, we will perform a set of transient experiments based on emissions from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Regional Aerosol MIP will better enable us to assess the potential contribution of aerosol to near-future climate change, to describe the robust features of the response to regional aerosol changes, and to identify where the key uncertainties lie. In this presentation we will introduce the experiment design, alongside some early analysis.

How to cite: Wilcox, L., Allen, R., Bauer, S., Bollasina, M., Ekman, A., Keeble, J., Lewinschal, A., Lund, M., Merikanto, J., O'Donnell, D., Paynter, D., Persad, G., Rumbold, S., Samset, B., Takemura, T., Tsigaridis, K., Undorf, S., and Westervelt, D.: Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5540, 2022.

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