Differences in the increase of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation between models and scales over Europe

The frequency and intensity of heavy and extreme precipitation events in Europe have increased since the 1950s. Earlier studies have found, using observational datasets, that frequency increases more than intensity and that both increase more with event rareness. Here we compare changes in intensity and frequency for different observational and model datasets. Both CMIP6 global models with ensembles and regionally downscaled model results are analyzed. The regional models (from CORDEX) are driven by both reanalysis and CMIP5 models. Data are analyzed over two 30-year periods from 1951 to 1980 and 1981 to 2010. Results show that the models do not manage to produce the same increase in frequency as observed, however results are more similar for intensity increase. There are large differences in the change in extreme precipitation in model ensembles. The probability density functions for each of the observational and model datasets show that there are differences in the pattern of the shift between the two time periods.