EGU22-6022
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6022
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Forensic disaster analysis of the 2021 summer floods in Western Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands – Findings from the PERC study 

Viktor Rözer1, Jonathan Ulrich2, Michael Szönyi3, Francisco Ianni2, Finn Laurien4, Teresa Deubelli4, Karen MacClune5, and Rachel Norton5
Viktor Rözer et al.
  • 1Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics, London, UK (v.roezer@lse.ac.uk)
  • 2International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), Geneva, Switzerland
  • 3Zurich Insurance Group, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 4Risk and Resilience Program, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
  • 5Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET)-International, Boulder, CO, USA

Severe flooding in Western Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands in July 2021, particularly along the rivers Erft, Ahr and Meuse rivers has led to more than 240 causalities and an estimated damage of 29,2 billion EUR in Germany alone. The high human and economic costs of the event brought systemic problems in the flood risk management system to light and raised questions about the limits of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Using a forensic disaster analysis approach, the Post Event Review Capability (PERC), we systematically analyse the strengths and weaknesses of the flood risk management systems in the affected regions, the emergency response and recovery to draw lessons for future disaster risk management and climate change adaptation strategies. For that, PERC synthesizes existing information about the event from the hydro-meteorological characteristics of the physical impact and combines it with qualitative interviews with first responders, flood risk managers and other directly affected stakeholders. We will present key findings from the PERC study on the 2021 floods including the main drivers behind the high casualties and potential shortcomings in the emergency response and recovery as well as recommendations and opportunities for improvement.

How to cite: Rözer, V., Ulrich, J., Szönyi, M., Ianni, F., Laurien, F., Deubelli, T., MacClune, K., and Norton, R.: Forensic disaster analysis of the 2021 summer floods in Western Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands – Findings from the PERC study , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6022, 2022.