EGU22-7883
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7883
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Quantifying 21st century Greenland ice mass loss from outlet glacier retreat and surface mass balance changes from coupled MAR-GISM simulations.

Sébastien Le clec'h1, Xavier Fettweis2, and Philippe Huybrechts1
Sébastien Le clec'h et al.
  • 1Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Ice and Climate, Geography, Bruxelles, Belgium (sebastien.le.clech@vub.be)
  • 2University of Liège, Laboratory of Climatology, Department de Geography, Belgium

Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet ice sheet has increased sixfold since the 1990s. With accelerated ice mass loss rates, it could become the largest contributor to sea-level rise in the 21stcentury. Both the surface mass balance and outlet glacier retreat control this ice mass loss. The latter is decomposed between ice flow changes in the lower trunks of outlet glaciers (discharge) and calving of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. Partitioning between SMB and retreat contributors evolved through the last decade. It is uncertain how much they will contribute individually in the future. While a coupled RCM-ice sheet model helps to improve the SMB contribution, future glacier retreat contribution modelling is in its early stages. Using the RCM MAR, fully coupled to the GISM ice sheet model, we investigate the impact of the surrounding ocean on the outlet glaciers. Our parameterization, based on oceanic basins temperature and subglacial ice sheet runoff changes, simulates individual outlet glacier retreat rate. By forcing our atmosphere – GrIS – ocean-retreat-like model by several CMIP6 GCM models, we assess the 21stcentury Greenland ice mass loss. Partitioning between mass loss from SMB and outlet glacier retreat forced by various CMIP6 SSP scenarios is estimated both at the regional and large Greenland scale.

How to cite: Le clec'h, S., Fettweis, X., and Huybrechts, P.: Quantifying 21st century Greenland ice mass loss from outlet glacier retreat and surface mass balance changes from coupled MAR-GISM simulations., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7883, 2022.