EGU22-9222
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9222
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Stakeholder interpretation of probabilistic representations of uncertainty in spatial information: an example on the nutritional quality of staple crops

Christopher Chagumaira1,2, Patson Nalivata3, Joseph Chimungu3, Dawd Gashu4, Martin Broadley1,2, Alice Milne2, and Murray Lark
Christopher Chagumaira et al.
  • 1University of Nottingham, Future Food Beacon of Excellence and School of Biosciences, Loughborough, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (christopher.chagumaira@nottingham.ac.uk)
  • 2Rothamsted Research, Sustainable Agriculture Sciences Department, Harpenden, Hertfordshire, AL5 2JQ, United Kingdom.
  • 3Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Crop and Soil Sciences Department, Bunda College, PO BOX 219, Lilongwe, Malawi.
  • 4Addis Ababa University, Center for Food Science and Nutrition, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Spatial information, inferred from samples, is needed for decision-making but is uncertain. One way to convey uncertain information is with probabilities (e.g., that a value falls below a critical threshold). We examined how different professional groups (agricultural scientists or health and nutrition experts) interpret information, presented this way when making a decision about interventions to address human selenium (Se) deficiency. The information provided was a map, either of the probability that Se concentration in local staple grain falls below a nutritionally-significant threshold (negative framing) or of the probability that grain Se concentration is above the threshold (positive framing). There was evidence for an effect of the professional group and of framing on the decision process. Negative framing led to more conservative decisions; intervention was recommended at a smaller probability that the grain Se is inadequate than if the question were framed positively, and the decisions were more comparable between professional groups under negative framing.  Our results show the importance of framing in probabilistic presentations of uncertainty, and of the background of the interpreter. Our experimental approach could be used to elicit threshold probabilities that represent the preferences of stakeholder communities to support them in the interpretation of uncertain information.

How to cite: Chagumaira, C., Nalivata, P., Chimungu, J., Gashu, D., Broadley, M., Milne, A., and Lark, M.: Stakeholder interpretation of probabilistic representations of uncertainty in spatial information: an example on the nutritional quality of staple crops, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9222, 2022.