CL2.6

Current and future variability and trends in the Antarctic Climate System
Co-organized by AS4/CR7/OS1
Convener: Tom Bracegirdle | Co-conveners: Ilana Wainer, Shelley MacDonell, Zhaomin Wang, Irina V. Gorodetskaya

Estimating how the Antarctic climate system (atmosphere, ocean, ice) may change in the near term is a scientifically complex task that involves significant contributions from external forcings and internally-generated climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. This session will consider presentations aiming to quantify and explain recent and current variability/trends. A key topic is the emergence of signals of external forcing in observations and climate models and the relative roles of specific drivers of regional trends and variability such as tropical teleconnections, internal Southern Ocean processes, and stratospheric ozone changes. These and other factors feed into estimations of future near-term change. However, the accuracy of model predictions and projections of future change depend strongly on model reliability, therefore model assessment against observations and improvements in design are highly relevant. Priority questions include:
• How are/will extreme events change and what are their contribution to underlying climate trends?
• Will recent trends in sea ice continue into the future?
• How will the westerlies respond to opposing responses to stratospheric ozone recover and GHG increases?
• What are the implications of current and future change for the rest of the planet?
We welcome abstracts addressing these and related questions involving model results and observational datasets across a range of components of the Antarctic climate system. The session is endorsed by SCAR Scientific Research Programme AntClimNow - Near-term Variability and Prediction of the Antarctic Climate system.