Please note that this session was withdrawn and is no longer available in the respective programme. This withdrawal might have been the result of a merge with another session.
NH11.1 | Prediction of natural hazards and climate extremes on seasonal to decadal timescales
Prediction of natural hazards and climate extremes on seasonal to decadal timescales
Convener: Julia Lockwood | Co-conveners: Mihaela Caian, Gillian Kay
Climate-driven natural hazards are increasing in frequency and intensity, and have the potential for severe socioeconomic and ecological impacts. There is rising demand for forewarning of climate extremes at the seasonal to decadal timescale, bridging the gap between weather forecasting and climate projections. In recent years there have been substantial advances in the science and systems of initialized climate prediction. Skilful forecasts on seasonal to decadal timescales can provide decision-makers with a valuable tool in planning for the extreme events of today and the near future. However, many challenges remain in realizing the potential of seasonal to decadal prediction of natural hazards, from scientific and technical to the production of information for climate services.

This session therefore welcomes a broad range of recent research on the prediction of natural hazards on seasonal to decadal timescales. Topics may include, but are not limited to:
• Skill and reliability of predictions of natural hazards, such as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, extreme precipitation, flooding, heatwaves, droughts, and cold spells, on seasonal to decadal timescales.
• Sources of predictability of natural hazards: Which large scale climate modes/processes drive hazards/extremes and how well are they represented in models?
• The role of large-scale remote teleconnections in driving regional extremes.
• Challenges to initialized climate prediction of natural hazards/extremes.
• Climate services: actual or potential uses of seasonal to decadal predictions of natural hazards to support decision-making.