Please note that this session was withdrawn and is no longer available in the respective programme. This withdrawal might have been the result of a merge with another session.
CR3.1 | The changing Arctic: exploring the potential scenario of a summer sea ice-free Arctic
EDI
The changing Arctic: exploring the potential scenario of a summer sea ice-free Arctic
Convener: Pasha Karami | Co-conveners: David Docquier, Agatha De Boer, Patricia DeRepentignyECSECS, Francois Massonnet
The effects of anthropogenic global warming are most evident in the Arctic, where temperatures are rising at more than twice the global average and the sea ice cover is shrinking dramatically. If the current downward trend in sea ice continues, the Arctic is projected to experience at least one ice-free summer month by mid-century. Despite the far-reaching ecological, climatic, and societal consequences of an ice-free Arctic, there is no consensus on the exact timing and long-term effects of such a scenario. Recent paleoclimate proxy and modeling studies are providing insights into the precursors, drivers, and consequences of a seasonally ice-free Arctic, but much is still uncertain. Emerging evidence suggests that future summer sea ice retreat will be characterized by high variability rather than a steady pace, featuring periods of rapid decline. All of this is critical in the context of the eventual transition to an ice-free Arctic, but not well understood.

This session invites abstracts that explore various aspects of the Arctic, including the ocean, sea ice, and climate across a broad range of timescales, from the past to the future, with a focus on their evolution in the context of ongoing climate change. Contributions may include observational, modeling, and paleoclimatic studies aimed at unraveling how the Arctic and its neighboring seas respond to a changing climate. We strongly encourage abstracts that study the causes and predictability of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean and its climatic and ecological impacts. The session aims to foster discussion and collaboration between scientists from diverse disciplines, as well as policymakers interested in gaining insights into the future of Arctic sea ice.