Please note that this session was withdrawn and is no longer available in the respective programme. This withdrawal might have been the result of a merge with another session.
CL3.1.2 | Temperature overshoot: climate reversibility and its impacts across spatial and temporal scales
EDI
Temperature overshoot: climate reversibility and its impacts across spatial and temporal scales
Convener: Peter PfleidererECSECS | Co-conveners: Norman Julius SteinertECSECS, Emily TheokritoffECSECS, Fabien Maussion, Biqing Zhu
The Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal sets ambitions for global climate action to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change. However, under current emissions trajectories, overshooting 1.5°C is more likely than not. To achieve the specified warming target nonetheless, overshoot scenarios are suggested as pathways that first exceed a specified global warming target before returning to or below that level in a specified period of time. Associated risks inherent to overshoot scenarios have so far been under-researched. Those risks can be related to 1) the feasibility of the large-scale deployment of negative emissions (e.g., carbon dioxide removal) technologies, 2) the potential for long-term irreversible climate impacts even in cases where global warming is reverted, and 3) their implications for climate change (mal)adaptation.
In this session, we welcome abstract submissions on regional to global climate impacts in overshoot scenarios and the mechanisms of non-linearity with global warming reversal- such as in systems characterized by hysteresis and irreversibility. Contributions that consider the socio-economic conditions and feasibility of overshoot scenarios, as well as the implications of overshoots for climate change adaptation and planning are also strongly encouraged.