SC2.4 | Making predictions for geoscience and climate policy
Making predictions for geoscience and climate policy
Co-organized by CL3.2
Convener: Robin Lamboll | Co-conveners: Moritz Schwarz, Sofia Palazzo-Corner
Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room -2.61/62
Mon, 08:30
In this short course, we will teach researchers the basics of making accurate and well-calibrated predictions, then get them to apply their skills to a range of problems in emissions scenarios, climate science and climate impacts.

Climate science is valuable because of its power to predict the future and guide it positively, but very little time goes into assessing how well we do and how we can do better with the human predictions we still rely on. For many problems encountered, there are no explicit models for how things will proceed, and we therefore rely on “expert judgement”. However, prediction comparisons find that in some domains, experts are worse than the less-informed public.

We will teach people how to express their beliefs systematically and explain some tools and platforms that facilitate doing this. Finally we’ll elicit predictions to inform climate modellers of high-risk missing data, inform IAM makers of realistic scenarios and inform policymakers of the realistic levels of climate change they will need to adapt to.

Early career researchers, late career researchers and all with an interest in learning how to make better predictions are welcome.