Please note that this session was withdrawn and is no longer available in the respective programme. This withdrawal might have been the result of a merge with another session.
ITS4.14/CL0.1.5 | Integrating adaptation in global climate change assessments
EDI
Integrating adaptation in global climate change assessments
Convener: Marina AndrijevicECSECS | Co-conveners: Nicole van MaanenECSECS, Matthias Garschagen
The future magnitude and pattern of risks posed by climate change depends not just on changing biophysical hazards, but also on the natural and human systems exposed to these hazards, the associated vulnerabilities, and the capacity of communities, organizations, and governments to prepare for and manage the risks (IPCC, 2022). Mainstream modeling tools focuses primarily on the hazard components, and on devising pathways to reduce emissions, while the adaptation-relevant aspects remain underrepresented. With intensifying climate change, it is crucial that (global) assessments, such as those derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs) and climate impact models (CIMs), find ways to understand whether, how and on which timescales societies could be expected to adapt.

For example, tools such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) – the dominant scenario framework in climate change research – could be used as a starting point for describing and quantifying challenges to adaptation under different development pathways, and scenarios could be used by the mainstream global models. Still, streamlining SSPs in impact and adaptation research – and vice versa adaptation assumptions into climate and impact modelling – requires innovations and incorporation of adaptation-specific information, derived at different spatial levels, different governance regimes and derived with both qualitative and quantitative methods of inquiry.

The goal of this session is threefold: First, it will take stock of the recent developments in the representation of adaptation, particularly in global assessments of future climate change risk and of alternative policy options to reduce risk. Second, it will discuss research needs in moving towards a stronger representation of adaptation in climate risk assessment. Third, it will discuss potential methods and approaches for such representation and integration, e.g. the development of adaptation narratives, the role of different scenarios techniques, or alternative ways of quantifying and modeling adaptation. We hence invite submissions from one or more of the following aspects: ways and methods to represent adaptation in IAMs and CIMs; representation of adaptation in damage functions; scenarios of future adaptation pathways; (sectoral) adaptation pathways; assessments of adaptive capacity; understanding the gap between adaptive capacity and adaptation implementation.