SPM103 | Challenges of evaluating and interpreting large ensembles over the polar regions
Challenges of evaluating and interpreting large ensembles over the polar regions
Convener: Tom Bracegirdle | Co-conveners: Einar Örn Ólason, Saskia Knispel de Acosta
Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
Room 2.61
Wed, 08:30

There are an increasing number of models for which large ensembles (LEs) have been generated. This is important for assessing the role of internal climate variability in a changing climate and is also key to understanding responses in extreme weather and climate events. The first part of the meeting will provide the opportunity for short presentations on key issues and/or opportunities, followed by a brainstorming discussion session based around the below questions and aims. This meeting is part of the European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA) Polar Collaborative Programme.


With a range of LE datasets to choose from, the question of which may be more reliable arises.
• In general different models produce different characteristics in internal variability. Which ones are more accurate? Given the relatively short observational record and large internal climate variability of the polar regions this is a challenging question to answer.
• Which models are most appropriate for assessing extreme weather/climate events? What are the best practices for downscaling?


The specific aims of this splinter meeting are to:
1. Identify the opportunities and challenges in using LEs to study polar climate change.
2. Identify best practice for evaluating LEs for use in polar studies.
3. Identify strategies for ensuring future LEs are designed, where feasible, to be appropriate for use in studies of polar climate change.