Hydrological predictions - simulations or forecasts - are fundamentally uncertain. This has been recognized more than a century ago (see Krzysztofowicz, 2001, and references therein), and it is still true today. For a complete picture, hydrological predictions should therefore not only provide point estimates, but probabilistic statements. Such probabilistic predictions are not only an honest account of what we know (and what we do not know), they also provide practical advantages for end users and decisionmakers (Buizza, 2008). Nevertheless, and despite considerable progress, to date the majority of hydrological models still provide single-valued output. With this session, we want to establish a platform to promote the paradigm-shift towards making probabilistic predictions in hydrology the standard rather than the exception.
We welcome contributions from the following fields (but not limited to these):
- Theory and methodology for identifying and quantifying sources and pathways of uncertainty from data through models to predictions, including approaches based on probability theory and information theory
- Development of model architectures and efficient training procedures enabling fast, accurate and reliable probabilistic predictions, including physics-based, data-driven, machine-learning and hybrid approaches, stochastic parameterisations, ensemble prediction systems, and post-processing
- Probabilistic benchmarks and evaluation frameworks, including benchmark models and datasets, verification methods, scoring rules, calibration, and large-scale initiatives for assessing probabilistic hydrological predictions
- Operational implementations and real-world applications of probabilistic hydrological modelling, including flood forecasting, climate change impact assessment, and water resources management
- Development of strategies for effectively communicating probabilistic predictions to end users

References
Buizza, R. (2008), The value of probabilistic prediction. Atmosph. Sci. Lett., 9: 36-42. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.170
Krzysztofowicz, R.: The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology, Journal of Hydrology, 249, 2-9, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00420-6, 2001.