| Impact-based forecasting, early warning and early action to reduce disaster risk
HS4
Impact-based forecasting, early warning and early action to reduce disaster risk
Co-organized by NH9
Convener: Tim BuskerECSECS | Co-conveners: Marc van den Homberg, Andrea FicchìECSECS, Eliane KoblerECSECS, Erika Meléndez-LandaverdeECSECS

Early warnings must be understandable, trusted and actionable to help protect lives and livelihoods from natural hazards such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, tropical cyclones, storms and tsunamis. Recent disasters, such as the 2021 floods in Western Europe, the 2020-2023 Horn of Africa drought, and the extreme heat affecting parts of Europe and the Mediterranean region in 2026 show that significant gaps in the early warning - early action chains persist. The Early Warnings for All initiative (led by WMO, UNDRR, ITU, and IFRC) recognizes that increased efforts are required to develop effective impact-based multi-hazard early warning systems.

The scientific community needs to move beyond natural hazard forecasting and towards impact- and action-based forecasting. This, in turn, requires commitment to the creation and dissemination of multi-hazard risk and multi-source impact data (including from social media) as well as the design, implementation and evaluation of impact-based forecasting services and linked early warning - early action (EW-EA) protocols.

However, significant knowledge gaps and operational challenges persist. This session aims to offer valuable insights and share best practices on impact-based early warning systems from the perspective of both the knowledge producers and users.

Topics of interest include, but are not limited to:
- Practical applications and operational use cases of impact-based forecasts, including the challenges faced in operational implementation
- Novel physics-based, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and hybrid approaches integrating forecasting, big data and earth observations for impact-based forecasting and decision support, including responsible, transparent and explainable approaches that support trusted, inclusive and people-centred systems
- Development of cost-efficient and evidence-based early action portfolios
- Linking preparedness and anticipatory action with response, recovery, reconstruction and prevention efforts
- Development of operational trigger systems (forecast-based financing) for humanitarian anticipatory action
- User-centred evaluation of impact-based forecasting and warning products including usability, trust, decision relevance and actionability
- Triangulation of indigenous and scientific knowledge for leveraging forecasts, multi-hazard risk information and climate services to last-mile communities
- Bridging the gaps in risk, impact and early action data to support impact-based forecasting.