| Future hydrological processes and extremes: bridging the gap between hydroclimatic scenarios and hydrological applications
HS7
Future hydrological processes and extremes: bridging the gap between hydroclimatic scenarios and hydrological applications
Co-organized by NH1, co-sponsored by IAHS-ICSH
Convener: Svenja Fischer | Co-conveners: Serena Ceola, Theano Iliopoulou, Paola MazzoglioECSECS, Alberto Montanari

Scientists are facing several challenges when applying climate models for hydrological variables, such as variety in ensembles, uncertainty or model decisions. Perspectives of climate and hydrological researchers might deviate and a gap exists between the information provided by climate scenarios and the data required for effective hydrological analyses and decision-making. Reducing this gap and improving the assessment of climate change impacts requires a deeper understanding of the interactions between climate drivers and hydrological processes across regional and local scales, as well as more accurate representations of these interactions within modelling frameworks. This is essential for developing reliable forecasts, attributing observed changes and assessing risk posed by extreme events. In this context, uncertainties, probabilistic approaches, and scenario-based predictions must be explicitly quantified and effectively communicated. Addressing these challenges calls for advanced modelling approaches and robust uncertainty quantification methods capable of accounting for both hydrological and anthropogenic influences on the water cycle under present and future conditions.

This session particularly welcomes, but is not limited to, contributions on:
- Advanced methods for the identification, simulation and prediction of hydrological processes and water resources, with emphasis on stochastic, data-driven and hybrid methods;
- Innovative techniques for simulating and forecasting hydroclimatic extremes, including compound and cascading events (e.g. heatwaves, floods and droughts);
- Holistic approaches for developing future water resources scenarios that explicitly incorporate climatic, environmental and anthropogenic drivers;
- Studies on hydroclimatic change attribution using probabilistic approaches and novel causality frameworks with uncertainty assessment;
- Evaluation of climate models performance, uncertainty and variability at regional and local scales using observational data;
- Downscaling of climate projections and related uncertainty propagation into hydrological variables;
- Advances in translating climate projections into actionable hydrological information for water-resource management, risk assessment, and adaptation planning;
- Socio-hydrological scenarios combining climate change, demographic dynamics, and land-use transformations within a coherent modelling framework.