Natural hazards pose serious threats to human health, settlements and the environment. The nature of impacts can be monetizable or hard to measure through economic metrics. Impacts can occur immediately due to the effects of a physical forcing or might persist, evolve and aggravate or resolve in time.
This session aims at gathering researchers interested in the scientific advances related to the multiple facets of natural hazard impacts, i.e., direct, indirect, tangible and intangible losses.
The session welcomes novel approaches to address impact modelling, data analysis, uncertainty analysis, calibration/validation and theoretical frameworks across all natural hazard types, e.g., floods, droughts, heatwaves, earthquakes, wildfires, landslides, storms etc. The topics include but are not limited to:
- comprehensive assessment of the current and future economic impacts of natural hazards under a changing climate, emphasizing the importance of robust cost evaluations for informed decision-making in disaster risk reduction, hazard management, risk forecasting cost-effectiveness and efficiency of risk reduction strategies, and climate change adaptation planning.
- impact-based forecasting and scenario development, exploring how evolving hazard, exposure and vulnerability conditions translate into future impact expectations to support anticipatory decision-making.
- cascading impacts from direct losses to systemic indirect losses, e.g., business interruption, disruptions to critical services such as energy systems, or the influence of critical infrastructure interdependencies on hazard impact.
- indirect and intangible impacts of natural hazards, which are increasingly significant in today’s interconnected socio-technological world. These include loss of irreplaceable items or ecosystem services, and the impacts on physical and mental health. The session also welcomes research on socially vulnerable communities and the long-term health impacts of climatic stressors.
- challenges posed by the lack of empirical data and the diversity of methodologies currently applied to assess the costs associated with different natural hazards and impacted sectors, e.g., energy, agriculture, population, buildings etc.
Submissions are encouraged from those engaged in both theoretical and practical aspects of impact assessment, with a view to fostering interdisciplinary dialogue and advancing the field.
NH9
The costs of Natural Hazards: direct, indirect, cascading and intangible aspects
Convener:
Timothy TiggelovenECSECS
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Co-conveners:
Marcello Arosio,
Esther BakelsECSECS,
Guilherme Samprogna MohorECSECS,
Ni LiECSECS