The Arctic region has undergone rapid and often abrupt changes over the past decades. Sea ice has become thinner, more mobile, and more prone to sudden breakup. Extreme temperature events have also become routine, with 2023 recording the warmest Arctic summer so far. The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the global average, driving ice sheet melt, sea ice retreat in the Kara and Laptev Seas, permafrost thaw, glacier loss, and wildfire activity. Consequently, the exposed ocean is increasingly prone to eddies, extreme events, and low-frequency climate oscillations and more susceptible to abrupt transitions in water mass structure and atmospheric circulation. Together with rising freshwater volumes, increased coastal runoff from Siberia and Greenland, and stronger exchange with the Atlantic and Pacific, these shifts are drastically reshaping the region's already fragile ecosystems.
Projections point to a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean by mid-century. This raises pressing questions: What might the future Arctic Ocean look like? How do Arctic changes interact with, and respond to, conditions at lower latitudes? What mechanisms drive the ongoing loss of sea ice, and how might they evolve in an increasingly ice-free system? Where should observational, remote sensing, and modeling efforts focus next?
This session invites contributions spanning the recent past, present, and future of the Arctic and subarctic oceans. We welcome studies of ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions; ocean eddies, extremes, and climate oscillations; the processes and feedbacks driving trends, transitions, and abrupt shifts in the Arctic system; small-scale dynamics, internal waves, and mixing; the sources and downstream impacts of freshwater change, including subarctic deep convection; and the broader coupling between the Arctic and global ocean circulation. Cross-disciplinary submissions are especially encouraged, particularly those connecting physical, cryospheric, biogeochemical, and ecological processes, as well as their links to terrestrial systems.
We welcome discussions on the future of Arctic Ocean observation, remote sensing, and modeling strategies (including the upcoming CMIP7 cycle) and on ways to validate and improve models against observations. Submissions drawing on recent field programs such as MOSAiC, the Nansen Legacy Project, and the Synoptic Arctic Survey are welcome, as are contributions from those planning the upcoming International Polar Year 2032-33.