The Arctic Ocean is transitioning from a perennial to an increasingly seasonal sea-ice cover, implying an emerging new Arctic. However, major uncertainties remain regarding (1) when, where and how ice-free conditions will emerge, (2) the physical mechanisms governing the timing, pace, and regional expression of this transition, (3) whether the first ice-free summer will mark a persistent new regime, and (4) how predictable this transition is.

This session explores climate predictability across different timescales, ranging from short-term forecasts to centennial projections, including sub-seasonal to multidecadal predictions. The aim is to better understand and predict the emerging Arctic sea-ice regime, including but not limited to ice-free summers. In particular, we want to explore how the sources and limits of sea-ice predictability evolve as the Arctic warms and transitions toward a new regime. This session also targets the studies of both the drivers and effects of a new Arctic sea-ice regime, such as but not limited to the analysis of sea ice - atmosphere - ocean interactions, the connection to the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans, the regional Arctic climate, and Arctic marine heatwaves.

We welcome contributions that make use of a range of tools, including dynamical and statistical models, machine learning, causal methods, hybrid approaches, and process-based diagnostics using observations.