Land-use-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) plays a prominent role in pathways towards net-zero and net-negative emissions. However, its realised climate benefit cannot be determined from carbon sequestration alone. CDR outcomes are shaped by land-use legacy, atmospheric CO₂, climate change, nutrient availability, ecosystem composition and disturbances. Land-based CDR can also alter surface energy and water exchanges, producing local and remote climate responses that may strengthen or offset its carbon-related benefits.
This session invites studies that use Earth system models to improve understanding of these interactions. We particularly welcome research on coupled carbon–nitrogen cycling and nutrient constraints; biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks involving albedo, evapotranspiration, surface roughness and hydrology; and remote effects mediated by moisture recycling, atmospheric circulation and climate teleconnections.
Relevant CDR and land-management approaches include afforestation and reforestation (A/R), agroforestry, forest and soil management, peatland restoration, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
We also encourage model development, benchmarking, intercomparison and observational evaluation, alongside assessments of uncertainty, additionality, permanence and reversal risks associated with drought, heat, fire, pests and other disturbances. Studies examining future mitigation pathways, temperature overshoot, declining atmospheric CO₂ and the long-term resilience of terrestrial carbon sinks are especially welcome.
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Earth system modelling of land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR): model development, biogeophysical and biogeochemical interactions, risks, and future pathways
Convener:
Beiyao XuECSECS
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Co-conveners:
Felix Havermann,
Shraddha GuptaECSECS,
Tyler HoustonECSECS,
Steven De HertogECSECS