NH3.4 | Modelling Rapid Alpine Mass Movements across Mountain Regions: Drivers, Hazards, and Risk
PICO
Modelling Rapid Alpine Mass Movements across Mountain Regions: Drivers, Hazards, and Risk
Convener: Sophia DemmelECSECS | Co-conveners: Matthias Schlögl, Stefan Steger

Mountain environments are highly sensitive to dynamic hydroclimatic forcing. Intense precipitation, rain-on-snow events, snowmelt and prolonged wet periods interact with topographic, geological, cryospheric, and ecological controls to govern the initiation of rapid alpine mass movements, including rockfalls, rock avalanches, shallow landslides, debris flows, and snow avalanches. Environmental changes such as rising temperatures, retreating glaciers, degrading permafrost, and shifting snow or precipitation regimes can fundamentally alter the thermal and hydrological dynamics of mountain slopes and subsequently the frequency, magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution of mass movements.

While the complex and nonlinear mechanisms of rapid alpine mass movements have traditionally been analyzed at the local slope scale, understanding and predicting them across regional, national, and transnational scales remains a major scientific frontier. Growing archives of Earth observation and environmental monitoring data, combined with continuous advances in modeling approaches and tools, propel the shift. These developments now enable the delineation of hazardous zones and the explicit inclusion of elements at risk across vast regions, facilitating a transition toward large-area, impact-based assessments. At the same time, the adoption of sophisticated sampling techniques is increasingly vital to address and mitigate data biases inherently present in large and heterogeneous hazard inventories.

We welcome contributions that leverage emerging data sources and technologies on a large scale, integrating physics-based simulations, empirical-statistical modeling, and machine learning to capture these complexities, improve spatio-temporal susceptibility mapping, hazard mapping, and regional early warning systems, and further integrate potential consequences, risks, and impacts. Contributions from across disciplines and areas of disaster risk management are highly encouraged. Particular interest lies in studies that bridge the gap between localized, process-based physical understanding and large-area predictive modelling, as well as research that translates scientific outputs into actionable strategies for climate adaptation and resilient mountain communities. We explicitly welcome submissions that address the limitations and bottlenecks of these approaches, enabling the scientific community to learn from shared challenges and avoid common pitfalls.