Mathematical models offer an imperfect and uncertain guide to future real-world climate impacts. These models (climate models, climate impact and hazard models, and catastrophe models) and their uncertainties influence how risks are understood, anticipated and managed, and therefore also play a direct role in shaping the human experience of climate risk. When informing real world decisions about climate mitigation and adaptation, the uncertainty of projections should be clearly communicated. However, open questions remain about the construction and use of these uncertainties. This includes explorations of how to navigate modelling approaches, the socio-scientific process of informing expectations of real-world outcomes and normative questions of how our uncertain expectations should inform decision making, now and in the future.

This session invites contributions from individuals and teams focused on exploring model uncertainty and decision making relating to future climate impacts, addressing topics such as:

1. Going beyond in-model uncertainty quantification (through e.g., ensemble methods, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, expert judgement, scenario analysis, combining multiple lines of evidence, etc.)
2. Informing expectations of future climate impacts in the real world (e.g., escaping from model land, communicating uncertainty, social perspectives on uncertainty, storylines, etc.)
3. Informing decisions in the context of uncertainty (eg DMDU approaches, examples of co-production, ethical and responsible modelling research, integration of diverse knowledge and decision systems)

In particular, we welcome contributions which consider how modelling approaches situate themselves within a broader social context when informing decisions.