CL3/NWP4

Climate prediction and scenarios from seasons to century (co-organized)
Convener: Christof Appenzeller  | Co-Conveners: Jean-Pierre Céron , Clare Goodess 

The climate is variable on all timescales. A key challenge is the prediction of changes in climate mean and variability for months, seasons, decades and the century ahead. On the monthly to seasonal time scale operational probabilistic predictions, mostly based on dynamical models, are now implemented in a number of centres and practical applications are developing. On decadal to century time scales, recent model developments within ENSEMBLES and the IPCC AR4 context provide the base to develop new regional and global climate change projections. Aside from the scientific hurdles, a key challenge remains in the tailoring of such climate predictions and scenarios for end user needs and climate change impacts assessments.

The session invites papers related to:
a) Monthly, and seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts (predictability, verification, calibration and downscaling, multi-models, statistically based schemes, tailoring to end user needs, ..).
b) Regional and global climate scenarios (global vs. regional models, IPCC AR4 assessments, multi-model approaches (e.g. ENSEMBLES), post-processing, downscaling, quantifying model uncertainties, probabilistic projections, tailoring for impacts assessments and societal sectors, ..).
c) Seamless predictions: approaches to bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasts.
d) Tailoring climate forecasts and longer-term projections for impacts assessments and use by societal sectors