NWP4

Probabilistic and ensemble weather forecasting applications
Conveners: A. Montani , J. Barkmeijer , R. Hagedorn , F. Prates 
Oral Programme
 / Thu, 13 Sep, 08:30–12:30  / Room A0
The session will focus on the most recent developments in the field of ensemble techniques, ranging from its close connection to data-assimilation and nowcasting at short ranges, to medium and monthly ranges.

As such it may provide a platform for exchanging ideas on how to create and use an ensemble system (techniques which may vary according to the forecast lead time). In particular, the forecaster perspective and the use of ensembles in predicting hazardous weather from several hours ahead will be of interest.

The conveners invite papers on various issues associated with Ensemble Forecasting for weather prediction, such as:
• representation of initial uncertainties in Global and Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction Systems, including interlinks between data-assimilation and probabilistic forecasting;
• representation of model or boundary uncertainties in Global and Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction Systems;
• results from experiments including major campaigns such as THORPEX Regional Campaigns, HyMeX, MAP D-PHASE, COPS, ETReC07;
• results from recent studies using TIGGE and TIGGE-LAM databases;
• use, verification and calibration methods of Ensemble Prediction Systems.
• Applications of medium- and long-range probabilistic forecasts in the sectors of energy, health, transport, agriculture, insurance, finance, etc.
• Applications of medium- and long-range probabilistic forecasts in the sectors of energy, health, transport, agriculture, insurance, finance, etc.