From Observations and NWP to Warnings and Impact Mitigation
In order to facilitate effective decision-making from weather information, users are increasingly interested in understanding the likely impact of expected weather – what the weather will do rather than what the weather will be. In addition, with many users adopting a risk-based approach to mitigation of the impacts, warnings are becoming increasingly probabilistic in nature, and our warning systems must be able to reliably capture and communicate the uncertainty of those impacts. Different decisions require to be taken at varying times ahead of an event, and at different levels of confidence or uncertainty, so a seamless approach exploiting the latest available risk estimates evolving from days to hours to minutes ahead is essential. Optimal warnings issued by forecasters may be underpinned by automated risk estimates based on combination of various model and observational sources, with proven accuracy in the forecasting of high-impact weather events, but there often remains an important role for the human forecaster in identifying aspects of societal vulnerability and localized impacts. Societal vulnerability is often greatest in developing countries, so risk-based approaches based on global systems and limited local data are of particular interest.
Presentations are invited on the themes above. Some suggested topics include:
• Impact-forecasting and risk-based warning systems.
• Use of ensemble prediction systems in risk-based warning processes.
• The role of the forecaster in warning systems.
• Seamless best-estimate forecast evolution from deterministic and probabilistic NWP and observations, including nowcasting, short range and medium range forecasts
• Effective decision-making in the presence of uncertainty.
• Capacity building for warning capabilities in developing countries.