NWP1

Dynamics and predictability of high impact weather
Convener: Timothy Hewson  | Co-Convener: Victoria Sinclair 
Orals
 / Wed, 14 Sep, 15:00–17:00  / Room Oceania AB
Posters
 / Attendance Wed, 14 Sep, 14:00–15:00  / Hall

A particular focus of this session will be high impact weather of varying types, such as windstorms, rainstorms, snowstorms, freezing rain and hail. Often such weather phenomena relate to the presence of 'features' in the atmosphere; for example windstorms are often caused by intense cyclones, whilst large hail is often associated with a supercell. We thus invite contributions that concentrate on the dynamics and/or predictability of (i) high impact weather phenomena and/or (ii) the atmospheric 'features' that give rise to these phenomena. References to the physical processes at work would be very welcome, as would contributions describing case studies, field experiments and connections with hydrology.

As regards predictability, we are looking at lead times from minutes ahead (nowcasting) through to about one week ahead.

We also strongly encourage contributions from within operational forecasting.

In summary, the session will accept papers on a wide range of topics that include the following:

-Studies of the dynamics of weather features, such as fronts, jet-streams, tropical cyclones and extra-tropical cyclones
-Theoretical, modelling and observational studies of processes that result in well, but also poorly predicted high impact weather
-Nowcasting studies and applications
-Investigations into the dynamical and physical factors that limit the skill of current predictions, across a wide range of scales