OSA3.6Challenges in deriving actionable information from climate model ensembles
|Convener: Andreas Fischer | Co-Conveners: Martin Widmann , Barbara Früh , Ivonne Anders , Jean-Pierre Céron , Fai Fung|
The prediction of changes in the climate mean state, variability and extremes remains a key challenge on decadal to centennial timescales. Recent advances in climate modelling and post-processing techniques (statistical downscaling, bias correction and ensemble techniques) provide the basis for developing future climate information on local to regional and global scales. To make such information actionable for users, relevant information needs to be derived and provided in a way that can support decision-making processes. This requires a close dialogue between the producers and users of future climate information.
Recent projects such as CMIP5, CMIP6, CORDEX, SPECS, EUPORIAS, MiKlip, COST-VALUE have tackled some of these aspects and the learning has fed into the development of national climate change scenarios which are now operational climate services in many European countries (e.g. KNMI14 in the Netherlands, UKCP18 in the UK, CH2018 in Switzerland, ÖKS15 in Austria). The session invites papers related to these projects and covers the topics:
•Practical challenges and best practices in developing national, regional and global climate scenarios and predictions to support adaptation action.
•Developments in dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques, process-based model evaluations and model weighting, methods to quantify uncertainties from climate model ensembles, combination of decadal predictions and projections to provide seamless user information.
•Challenges in the co-production of future climate information for different target audiences. Examples of tailored information for impact assessments and decision-making. Methods for eliciting user requirements.
•Achievements to increase the uptake of future climate information in decision-making (e.g. case studies, targeted communications campaigns)