OSA3.5
Deriving actionable information from climate model ensembles
Convener: Andreas Fischer | Co-Conveners: Martin Widmann, Barbara Früh, Ivonne Anders, Rob van Dorland, Fai Fung

The prediction of changes in the climate mean state, variability and extremes remains a key challenge on decadal to centennial timescales. Recent advances in climate modelling and post-processing techniques (statistical downscaling, bias correction and ensemble techniques) provide the basis for developing future climate information on local to regional and global scales. To make such information actionable for users, relevant information needs to be derived and provided in a way that can support decision-making processes. This requires a close dialogue between the producers and users of future climate information.

Over recent years, a number of European countries have established operational climate services in support of climate adaptation. These services – in form of climate scenarios - are typically based on coordinated model ensembles such as CMIP5, CMIP6 and CORDEX, taking into account country-specific circumstances (e.g. KNMI14 and KNMI21 in the Netherlands, UKCP18 in the UK, CH2018 in Switzerland, ÖKS15 in Austria). The session aims at an exchange on the different national approaches and invites papers on:

•Practical challenges and best practices in developing climate scenarios to support adaptation action.

•Developments in dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques, process-based model evaluations and model weighting, methods to quantify uncertainties from climate model ensembles.

•Challenges in the co-production of future climate information for different target audiences. Examples of tailored information for impact assessments and decision-making. Methods for eliciting user requirements.

•Achievements to increase the uptake of future climate information in decision-making (e.g. case studies, targeted communications campaigns)

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