Enabling the Weather Enterprise for the 21st century
Since the last EMS Conference, the dialogue aimed at creating a more enterprising and global approach to delivering weather services to the world community has progressed further through various forums and events.
This dialogue is taking place against a background of a variety of factors, including:
• The advancement of scientific understanding
• Increasing demand for impact-based forecasting
• Availability of public funding for NMHSs
• Increasing use of weather services in multiple value chains, from agriculture to retail, logistics and renewable energy production and consumption.
• Technical innovation
• Climate change
The growth of the value chain has been mainly driven by the private sector; there are several companies than are now providing a range of services beyond the scope and quality previously only available from publicly-funded NMHSs.
The aim of this session is to examine the value chain from a European perspective, describe examples of value creation and underlying factors, highlighting the progress towards more efficient solutions, and to focus on the most important challenges that lie ahead.
Prof Alan Thorpe, World Bank: Evolution of the Global Weather Enterprise
Mary Glackin, American Meteorological Society: The Weather Enterprise: Conflict or Cooperation?
Karl Gutbrod, Meteoblue: Evolution of private weather services in different countries
Invited presentations and posters on the theme of Weather Enterprise in Europe, highlighting:
• Achievements of the past 25 years
• Challenges for the next 25 years and Proposed Solutions
Andrew Eccleston,Willie McCairns,Gerald Fleming
Creating value through Open Data in the cloud (SPARK Session)
For this session we are aiming to organise it according to the SPARK concept: https://www.ems2020.eu/programme_and_abstracts/on_the_programme/spark_sessions.html
The impact of Open Data policies across Europe is becoming obvious by the variety of national and international data portals, making available a growing amount of datasets. Since all of this Open Data can be freely used, modified, and shared by anyone for any purpose, numerous applications based on these datasets have been developed. In this context, also a number of National Meteorological Services are adopting an Open Data policy. The range of spatial data offered on such Open Data services is wide and can include model forecasts, radar data, current measurements and observations, a large amount of different types of climate data and many more.
As the data has often huge volume, cloud technologies provide often a very convenient way to distribute and employ the data. Therefore, it is more and more common, that Open Data content is made available also “in the cloud”. Moreover, the data sets are provided often also via GeoWebServices, e.g. in OGC compatible WMS and WFS formats.
The session invites contributions on both technical and user focused developments related to providing and using these freely available datasets. This includes amongst others challenges and solutions related to the following topics:
• The development of client applications based on Open Data
• New ideas where and how Open Data can serve society
• New open data sets
• The development of user friendly geoportals including
o Catalogue services
o Download services
o Visualization services
o Transformation services
• Tools and interfaces (APIs) for utilizing Open Data
• Opportunities and challenges regarding cloud technologies
o data sources, data formats, legal issues...
The aim of the session is to bring together the provider and current/future user of Open Data portals and cloud technologies across Europe, to share their experiences and requirements.
Renate Hagedorn |
Eduard Rosert,Roope Tervo
Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation
Climate change impact assessment and related adaptation research are emerging scientific and policy areas in Europe. Expert scientific advice has been increasingly called upon to enable informed decision-making. In April 2013 the European Commission (EC) adopted an EU strategy on adaptation to climate change which has been welcomed by the EU Member States. In 2018 the EC published an evaluation of the strategy which shows that the strategy has delivered on its objectives, however, it also shows how Europe is still vulnerable to climate impacts within and outside its borders. Moreover as of 2018 26 out of 28 EU Member States have adopted their national adaptation strategy (NAS) or national adaptation plans (NAP).
The adaptation strategies session is aiming to share experience and present the recent knowledge on how climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation topics are addressed in European countries, regions and as well as the local levels (including urban scales).
We welcome contributions presenting :
* examples on cooperation and knowledge exchange between scientists and policymakers;
* examples of urban adaptation and mainstreaming adaptation into the sectoral policies (e.g. agriculture, transport, energy, etc.);
* experiences on the transfer of research outcomes to decision makers including the design of effective yet economically efficient adaptation initiatives and strategies;
*different ways sharing the knowledge on adaptation and foster the production of research along identified needs contributing to the development of a European knowledge base on climate change and support European countries in their efforts to adopt appropriate climate adaptation strategies, action plans, and measures;
*examples of existing knowledge gaps and research needs;
*examples how knowledge on climate change impacts and vulnerability have been included in the NAP or NAS;
* maximize the degree to which research outcomes address national, regional and European climate policy needs;
* experiences and lessons learnt on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (CCIVA) research funding and management and on the development of national and regional adaptation practices;
* information flow among Europe's national and regional CCIVA research programmes and international frameworks.
From hazards to impacts: understanding the mechanisms behind single and compound climate events
The occurrence of high-impact climate, weather and hydrological events can have significant and sometimes catastrophic consequences to society. This particular applies to compound events, resulting from the interaction of multiple hazards (that are not necessary disastrous when standing alone) across various spatial and temporal scales and/or the joint failures of multiple human or natural systems. As a result, it is crucial to develop new methodologies that account for the possible interaction of multiple physical and socio-economic drivers when analysing high-impact events. Similarly, it is critical that stakeholders are involved in this research as both providers and users of knowledge to ensure that the scientific state-of-the-art may be converted into practice.
Invited are contributions related to better understanding the interplay of mechanisms causing high impact compound events and stakeholders response. Also contributions on the ability of climate/weather, statistical, and impact models to represent compound events in a current and future climate are welcome.
Likewise, we invite contributions that highlight aspects of the science-user interface also from the social science aspects in the case of high impact climate and weather events, e.g., which events are most relevant for users, and how can continued deep stakeholder engagement be ensured.
This session is jointly convened by the European COST Action DAMOCLES and the ECRA (European Climate Research Alliance) Collaborative Programme on “High Impact Events and Climate Change”.
DAMOCLES aims to coordinate European efforts specifically related to studying compound events by building a research network consisting of climate scientists, impact modellers, statisticians, and stakeholders. The COST Action is focusing around five themes: synthesis and analysis; stakeholders and science-user interface; impacts; statistical approaches, model development and evaluation; and realistic model simulations of events.
Similarly, ECRA aims to promote collaborative research on the mechanisms behind high impact events and climate extremes, simulation of high- impact events under present and future climatic conditions, and on how relevant information for climate risk analysis, vulnerability and adaptation may be co-created with users, e.g., in terms of tailored climate services.
Martin Drews |
Hilppa Gregow,Bart van den Hurk,Jakob Zscheischler
Creating national and regional climate services in Europe through partnerships
In this session on climate services, the intention is to consider a broad range of activities specifically related to the development of national and regional climate services in Europe, focusing on creating climate services through partnerships and dialogue, between scientists, developers, providers and end-users.
Consistent with this, a number of general topics and questions to be addressed are:
• Mechanisms and structures for establishing and maintaining sustainable climate services and partnerships between researchers, providers and translators, and managing expectations of users
• Communicating capabilities and limitations of climate information (including credibility, reliability, and uncertainty)
• What particular challenges and issues arise in the provision of information about high-impact climate extremes?
• Interaction with major research initiatives such as, for European downscaling, Euro-CORDEX, Med-CORDEX and VALUE and, with respect to earth observations, the COPERNICUS programme
• Examples of information being used to support decision or policy making
• How do climate services interact with weather services?
• How do these activities fit within the context of the Global Framework for Climate Services?
Specific examples are sought which, taken together, span the range of actors and requirements for climate services and reflecting:
• The need for information on different timeframes and spatial scales
• The different types of users, providers and intermediaries
• Different sectors and decision-making contexts
• Different countries (including comparisons of different approaches to climate services being taken in different countries)
• Different funding and access models (e.g., publically-funded, commercial services)
Carlo Buontempo |
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Valuation of climate service
Over the past decade the development of climate services has grown into a major branch of the atmospheric science and services, and also well beyond these sectoral boundaries. This expansion has been mainly driven by the need for adaptation to climate change, while improved understanding and modelling of the climate system have also helped the development of seasonal and sub-seasonal climate services. Consequently, the expanding climate service market supports decision making in a large variety of user contexts.
The value added of climate services is often assumed to be quite favourable, while actual valuations are currently rare. The uptake of climate services is nevertheless growing slower than expected by actors such as the WMO and the EU, despite the alleged self-evident value added of such services. Several recent EU projects (CLARA, EU-MACS, MARCO, S2S4E etc.) have indicated that the capability to provide an ex-ante estimate of positive net benefits per year would be appreciated by many potential users, and thereby promote uptake of climate services. Similarly, climate service providers and funders, as well as policy makers can benefit from ex-post evaluation and monitoring of the realized economic value attributable to the use of climate services. However, the application of ex-ante and ex-post valuations is not widespread, with notable limitations in systemization and comparability.
So far, the valuation of climate services has been limited by the lack of a universal valuation method. The applicability of methods is context sensitive and heavily affected by data availability. In many cases, methods used for the valuation of weather services or warnings cannot be used to valuate climate services, or need significant adaptation. Furthermore, for many climate services, verification of the beneficial impacts is not possible, or is problematic due to attribution challenges. In principle, methods derived from economics and risk analysis are already available, and although in need of tailoring, they should be applied in climate service valuation.
This session aims to bring together experts in the valuation of climate services and climate service providers that want to integrate ex-ante valuation capability in their service portfolio, and benefit from ex-post valuation for the improvement of existing services and development of new ones. We are looking for a broad spectrum of valuations and presentations that dwell on how ex-ante valuation capability can be integrated into climate service portfolios:
• Ex-ante valuation of climate services (methods and/or applications);
• Ex-post valuation of climate services (methods and/or applications);
• Differences and commonalities in valuation at different aggregation levels (1 actor vs. 1 actor group vs. all users)
• Comparability and portability of valuation results
• Challenges for the uptake of climate services;
• Effects of institutional factors and business models on value creation and appropriation;
• Any other related topic.
Adriaan Perrels |
Jaroslav Mysiak,Ilaria Vigo
Co-development of weather and climate services in developing and emerging countries
Many European institutions, including several national hydrometeorological services, universities, private companies, and donor organizations, are involved in projects aiming to assist with the development of weather and climate services in developing and emerging countries. This session will foster the exchange of information on recent, ongoing, or planned co-development initiatives in developing and emerging countries, providing a platform to exchange knowledge, lessons learned and good practice on effective co-development and scientific and practical achievements in the field of meteorology and climatology.
The session invites contributions from those working on co-development activities and initiatives aiming to enable countries from the developing world to improve their weather and climate service capability, such as
● the development of new weather and climate services products
● the enhancement and coordination of technical and organizational infrastructure,
● the implementation and optimization of procedures and methods, capacity building for technical and general management,
● the enhancement of education and training, the strengthening of service mindedness,
● the development of scientific capability in meteorological and climatological topics, and the related knowledge gain,
● the facilitation and fostering of international collaboration, and
● the coordination of relevant donors and funding opportunities.
Particularly welcome are presentations on lessons learnt from past or ongoing co-development initiatives, including examples of good practice and success stories, alongside reports on difficulties and challenges encountered, as well as meta-initiatives aiming at facilitating communication and collaboration. Discussion on the co-development approaches applied, focusing on their impact and sustainability, are welcome. Pure methodological discussions, however, are left to other topical sessions in the OSA program stream.
Stefanie Gubler |
Gerard van der Schrier,Jane Strachan,Matti Eerikäinen
ES2 – Communication with and within society
Communication and media
The Commmunication and Media session will cover the following topics:
• TV weather forecasts including video clips
• media and climate change issue
• use of social media to convey weather and climate information
• ways to present climatological information in an appealing way for the media and general public
• warnings in case of severe weather events, role of different media in the warning system, a single voice concept
• internet as efficient and popular media in meteorology
• monthly meteorological bulletins and annals
• radio as a traditional media for delivering weather data and forecasts
• development of new communication strategies and use of social media
• tips on how to interact with users and journalists
• perception of provided information among users
• use of new technologies
• role of press officers within the National weather services
• role of science journals and publishers
• communicating uncertainty in seasonal forecast and climate projections
Scientists communicate to non-peer audiences through numerous pathways including websites, blogs, public lectures, media interviews, and educational collaborations. A considerable amount of time and money is invested in this public engagement and these efforts are to a large extent responsible for the public perception of science. However, few incentives exist for researchers to optimize their communication practices to ensure effective outreach. This session encourages critical reflection on science communication practices and provides an opportunity for science communicators to share best practice and experiences with evaluation and research in this field.
We invite everybody who has been involved in any of these activities to share her/his experience in this session:
• Do you consider yourself a science communicator?
• Does your research group or institution participate in public engagement activities?
• Have you ever evaluated or published your education and outreach efforts?
– then submit an abstract on your experiences to this session.
This session would also include examples of how science can and should support decision-making. Presenters would come from public, private and research sector.
For this session we are aiming to organise it according to the SPARK concept:
Weather forecasts have matured substantially in providing reliable and sharp predictions and consequently the associated forecast uncertainty. This information can be integrated in downstream models and used to support decision-making processes.
The raw uncertainty information, e.g. as members of one or multiple ensemble prediction systems or as statistically derived probability distributions, has to be postprocessed, combined or visualized before it can serve as input for impact models such as hydrological models, or as decision support for weather forecasters, and for lay or professional end-users, such as emergency managers or energy providers.
In this session, we would like to support a holistic perspective on issues that arise when making use of uncertainty information of weather forecasts in decision processes and applications. To this end, we encourage contributions that investigate the application and interpretation of uncertainty information along any of the following questions:
How does the quality of the final decision depend on forecast uncertainty and uncertainty from other parts of the decision process (e.g., missing information, weather impact assessment, other sources, interactions, misinterpretations)?
Where, along the chain from raw forecast uncertainty to the final decision, do the largest uncertainties arise?
How is the uncertainty information (e.g., from ensemble prediction systems, multi-models etc.) propagated through the production chain up to the final decision?
How can we tailor information about forecast uncertainty to a given decision process or application?
How is uncertainty represented best in a given case (e.g., as ensemble members, PDFs, or worst/best case) to reduce complexity and computational or cognitive cost?
How can we identify the most suitable representation for different user-groups and decision processes?
How can we incorporate vulnerability and exposure data in a risk-based decision framework?
How can we evaluate and quantify the value of uncertainty information for the final decision?
What strategies help the end-user to the right interpretation of the uncertainty forecasts to make informed decisions?
What are the benefits of impact-based or risk-based forecasts and warnings in decision-making (including for disaster risk reduction)?
How can the interaction between scientists and end-users help to overcome reservations about uncertainty forecasts?
Nadine Fleischhut,Vanessa Fundel,Bruno Joly,Mark A. Liniger,Ken Mylne
ES3 – Education and training
Education and training: at schools, for the public, for stakeholders and professionals
All the aspects of education in atmospheric sciences are addressed. Starting at school levels we are interested in the role and place of meteorology, climatology and related sciences in national curricula. At universities, the content and methods of curricula in atmospheric sciences and related fields, are of common interest for comparing and assessing the different European traditions and schools. Especially, presentations on new techniques of teaching used for individuals (web oriented materials available, e-learning courses, etc.) should enable to share best practices. Lifelong education and further training of meteorological personnel in NMSs as well as private companies and other stakeholders is necessary in line with the rapid development of the related disciplines, including experience from existing activities (like EUMETCAL, EUMETRAIN) and other projects. In addition, outreach to the broader public belongs to the contemporary tasks of science, while new communication tools enable direct feedbacks with the room for real citizen science development.
In particular we encourage contributions related to:
• Practices and advances in atmospheric science education;
• The role of atmospheric sciences knowledge in the education process (in school subjects like physics, geography, etc.);
• The organisation of education and training in meteorology and climatology;
• The role and methods of school activities and programmes for atmospheric sciences outreach and education;
• The presence and content of meteorology, climatology and hydrology in national curricula at all levels of education throughout Europe and beyond;
• New educational material or concepts of atmospheric science education to reach the general public;
• Use of citizen science in atmospheric science education;
• The use of new technologies and advances in atmospheric science education, e.g., on computer aided learning, web-based courses or other resources presenting contemporary problems and tasks of atmospheric sciences;
• The role and the impact of these methodologies in professional training (universities, NMSs), including among others EUMETCAL and EUMETRAIN;
• Educational aspects of EU and national projects and initiatives.