11th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms

The operational weather forecasting in the short and medium range is conditioned by the inaccuracy and uncertainties associated to the Numerical Weather Prediction models (e.g. model physics, parameterizations and initial conditions). This is especially relevant in the Mediterranean region where high-impact weather is expected and complex geography can force small-scale processes that are worse predicted by the operational weather models. Therefore operational weather forecasting has to provide the best high resolution weather forecasts and at the same time to reduce and delimit uncertainties, through the use of probabilistic forecasts, based both on ensemble prediction and of statistical downscaling.

On similar grounds, the complexity of hydrological processes and the inherent uncertainties in hydrological models, render the development of operational hydrological forecasting systems a very difficult task. Large amounts of data from automated hydrological and meteorological stations and high resolution gridded data from radars and satellites have been incorporated in hydrological models. Despite the advances that have been made in the last decades in hydrological modeling, further progress is still required to transform these hydrological models into operational forecasting tools.

This session welcomes contributions related to the operational and hydrological forecasting problems, predictability, verification, data assimilation and ensemble forecasting techniques, with emphasis on applications in the Mediterranean region.