Marine biodiversity baselines, from which anthropogenic impact is assessed, require long-term data. This session explores how interdisciplinary knowledge – particularly integrating paleobiological, historical, ecological, and social perspectives – can support GBF Target 3 (the "30x30" goal) by informing the identification and design of ecologically representative marine protected areas (MPAs). Fossil and historical records provide critical information to identify threatened species, understand extinction dynamics, and guide the conservation of genetic, taxonomic, and functional diversity – contributing to GBF Target 4. Given the accelerating impacts of climate change, long-term perspectives can anticipate marine biodiversity shifts and strengthen the effectiveness of conservation strategies, supporting GBF Target 8.
We invite contributions that demonstrate how time-extended data, integrative modelling, and interdisciplinary approaches can inform spatial prioritization, improve extinction risk assessments, and anticipate future changes in marine ecosystems. By bridging disciplines and timescales, this session aims to support transformative action toward resilient and inclusive ocean stewardship under the Global Biodiversity Framework.
One essential form of collaborative capacity building in ocean governance are science-policy interfaces (SPI). Research on SPIs for biodiversity conservation focuses on SPIs at international scales (especially on IPBES) and on SPIs relating primarily to terrestrial and coastal ecosystems. There is only a small number of SPIs that relate to biodiversity conservation in the high seas, and consequently there are also only a few studies that have analysed these science-policy interfaces.
Focusing on SPIs to be created in the context of the BBNJ agreement, success factors are identified for an innovative design of SPIs that effectively contribute to ocean biodiversity conservation. These success factors are identified on the basis of a systematic literature review of scientific studies on marine biodiversity SPIs, interviews with experts involved in existing SPIs addressing ocean biodiversity conservation (e.g., WESTPAC), innovative approaches for transdisciplinary knowledge integration (integrating system, target and transformative knowledge, which reduces informational and normative uncertainties), and procedures for actionable knowledge creation (building on findings from behaviour change research). A key criterion for assessing the success of existing SPIs on marine biodiversity based on the systematic literature review and expert interviews is whether and how the SPIs have contributed to concrete policies for protecting and restoring ocean biodiversity (e.g., to decisions on the designation of specific marine protected areas).
The identified success factors go beyond previous lists of success factors for SPIs, which identified generic factors such as credibility, relevance and legitimacy, by describing specific procedures for the legitimate selection of experts from science and politics to be involved in the SPIs and specific methods for integrating knowledge to be credible, relevant and actionable. To illustrate how these success factors can be put into practice, concrete recommendations for the design of BBNJ-related SPIs at international (for the planned ‘Scientific and Technical Body’) and national levels (a potential BBNJ-related SPI in Germany) are developed.
How to cite: Grothmann, T., Berends, S., Wolter, H., and Siebenhüner, B.: Innovative science-policy interfaces for effective ocean biodiversity conservation, World Biodiversity Forum 2026, Davos, Switzerland, 14–19 Jun 2026, WBF2026-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/wbf2026-113, 2026.
Effective governance instruments are crucial for protecting marine biodiversity in the context of climate change. For governance instruments to be effective, especially under conditions of changing ecosystems in the medium and long-term, they must be informed by science – whether it is data on past changes or modelling dynamic futures. With the BBNJ agreement entering into force in 2026, numerous open questions need to be addressed, such as which area-based management tools will be used to protect (dynamic) marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdictions and which areas are the first to be protected. Ecologically or Biologically Significant Marine Areas (EBSAs) are described and identified through a scientific and technical process under the CBD. Internationally, they are seen as potential areas to establish marine protected areas or other area-based management tools under the BBNJ.
In this presentation, we show how modelling habitat changes of high seas EBSAs can shed light on effective governance measures for these areas. We use habitat suitability models to quantify the environmental conditions unique to each EBSA and project those conditions into the coming century at different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This assesses whether the conditions are maintained within or move beyond the EBSA boundaries. We show that there are different types of EBSAs based on the severity of their forecasted habitat change and thus categorise them to derive protection schemes. We present our notion of tailor-made protection schemes for each of the categories, where static and dynamic tools are used and combined differently to protect the marine biodiversity that is currently inhabiting these EBSAs. Our protection schemes anticipate changes in the dynamic marine system to protect biodiversity more effectively.
Thereby we show how bridging governance research and biodiversity modelling can make marine biodiversity protection more effective and future-proof. Such approaches inform stakeholders of effective governance measures to protect valuable ecosystems and how to reach the GBF goal.
How to cite: Berends, S. and Reddin, C.: Science-informed governance for effectively protecting marine biodiversity in EBSAs, World Biodiversity Forum 2026, Davos, Switzerland, 14–19 Jun 2026, WBF2026-471, https://doi.org/10.5194/wbf2026-471, 2026.
Marine bioregions capture major discontinuities in the spatial distribution of species assemblages, reflecting the interplay among temperature, nutrient supply, circulation patterns, and other environmental factors. Planktonic foraminifera provide an exceptional archive for investigating these dynamics, as their continuous, globally distributed, and taxonomically well-resolved fossil record enables spatially explicit reconstructions across climatic oscillations. While modern and late-Holocene datasets reveal short-term migration of foraminiferal bioregions, the geographic migration of these regions on longer timescales remains poorly characterized. Characterizing such bioregions and their dynamics helps us understand how marine ecosystems change in response to climate warming.
Using the Triton compilation of globally distributed Pleistocene–Recent assemblages, we reconstruct foraminiferal bioregions over the past 1 million years, using relative abundances of bioregion-diagnostic (indicator) species based on the modern data. We used this approach to overcome spatially uneven sampling that increases deeper in time. We then evaluate bioregion temporal stability, shifts in dominant assemblages, and patterns of latitudinal migration. Using the relative abundance of indicator species, we quantify bioregion composition at both the site level and the global level, calculate mean paleolatitudes through time, and compare bioregion dynamics through glacial–interglacial cycles.
Our results reveal substantial, climate-linked restructuring of bioregions. Bioregions generally migrated equatorwards during cooler intervals, whereas migration was generally polewards during warmer periods - a pattern consistent with thermal niche tracking. However, bioregions exhibit heterogeneous sensitivities, with some displaying strong, directional responses to temperature changes and others showing muted or asymmetric behavior. These findings demonstrate that bioregions do not act as uniform units under climate forcing; instead, their mobility and resilience vary depending on their species composition and environmental context.
By contextualizing contemporary and future bioregional changes within a million-year perspective, this work underscores the importance of spatially explicit biodiversity baselines for conservation planning. The results provide empirical insights relevant to implementing the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, particularly Targets 3, 4, and 8, which emphasize spatial conservation prioritization, species persistence, and climate change mitigation.
How to cite: Smith, I. E., Khan, T. M., Rillo, M. C., Mathes, G., and Kiessling, W.: Tracking marine bioregions through a million years of climate change, World Biodiversity Forum 2026, Davos, Switzerland, 14–19 Jun 2026, WBF2026-507, https://doi.org/10.5194/wbf2026-507, 2026.
Reaching a nature-positive future requires halting and reversing biodiversity loss, which requires transformative changes to views, structures, and practices at different scales. As recommended by IPBES, a key approach to achieve transformative change involves driving systemic shifts in the sectors most responsible for biodiversity loss and nature’s decline. As the largest habitat on Earth, the ocean faces persistent pressures from industrial activities, including overfishing, pollution, and habitat loss - yet the ocean-focused Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 14, Life Below Water) receives the least funding of all SDGs. To help counter this trend, multiple tools have emerged that aim to guide a nature-positive transformation for “blue economy” sectors:
- The Science-Based Targets Network (SBTN) Ocean targets – which guide companies to set targets that reduce their most material pressures on the ocean, including in fisheries and aquaculture
- The Nature Positive Ocean Pathways recommendations – which offer actionable approaches for the private sector (including offshore wind, coastal tourism, shipping, and fisheries/aquaculture) to credibly contribute to the nature-positive goal
These tools and others are paving the way for assessments of private-sector actions through transparent monitoring, evaluation, and learning. Ultimately, these tools aim to help shift private and public investments away from nature-negative toward nature-positive incentives, enabling ecosystem regeneration as well as equitable outcomes for people. While both tools featured here focus on voluntary corporate action, it is critical that such approaches are complemented by regulatory actions that synergistically address systemic inequality, as well as climate change and other societal challenges (i.e. for water, food, health). This poster will feature these two ocean-focused tools and serve as a springboard for discussion around approaches available or possible to foster positive systemic change for ocean health.
How to cite: Golden Kroner, R., Waldman Carrow, A., Thomas-Smyth, A., Lynch, L., Richardson, M., Ahmadia, G., and Holmes, L.: Tools to support a nature-positive ocean: Science-Based Targets and Nature Positive Ocean Pathways , World Biodiversity Forum 2026, Davos, Switzerland, 14–19 Jun 2026, WBF2026-1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/wbf2026-1007, 2026.
As of 2021, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States (AMS) have made significant strides toward Aichi Biodiversity Target 11, collectively protecting 15.57% of terrestrial areas and 4% of coastal and marine areas. This study presents the findings of the third edition of the ASEAN Biodiversity Outlook by the ASEAN Centre for Biodiversity (ACB) to evaluate the region’s progress in both quantitative coverage and qualitative elements such as ecological representation, connectivity, and management effectiveness.
The analysis reveals that while terrestrial coverage approached the 17% global target, marine protection lags significantly behind the 10% goal. Furthermore, protection of areas of importance for biodiversity is incomplete; while 37% of Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are protected, 44% are only partially protected, and only 11% of critical Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) sites are fully covered. Qualitative assessments indicate a critical data deficit, with Protected Area Management Effectiveness (PAME) assessments completed for only a mere 4.34% of the marine network. Currently, estimates of OECM coverage are unavailable at the regional level, despite the potential of Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas (ICCAs) to contribute significantly to connectivity and coverage targets. Furthermore, connectivity analysis reveals that even where coverage targets are met, design deficiencies result in low ecological connectivity.
To address these gaps and to achieve the KM-GBF Target 3, the study recommends accelerating the ASEAN Heritage Parks Programme, legally recognising Other Effective Area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs), and aligning national targets with regional goals to ensure sustainable, equitable, and effective conservation outcomes. There is a need to expand protected area networks and identify OECMs that will encompass ecoregions in the terrestrial, marine, and inland waters, including the areas of particular importance for biodiversity with a wider representation of trigger species from different taxonomic groups. Enhancing cooperation with IPLCs in the creation, control, and management of areas outside of protected area boundaries will also greatly enhance the capacity and capability of the AMS to meet succeeding conservation targets in the post-2020 scenario.
Keywords: ASEAN Biodiversity, OECMs, Key Biodiversity Areas, IPLCs
How to cite: Villavelez, E., Gauch, N. H., and Maglangit, E. P.: Assessing the Gaps: An Analysis of How the ASEAN Region is Faring in Protecting its Marine and Terrestrial Areas, World Biodiversity Forum 2026, Davos, Switzerland, 14–19 Jun 2026, WBF2026-707, https://doi.org/10.5194/wbf2026-707, 2026.
Direct observational records are generally too short to capture biodiversity dynamics on decadal and longer time scales, making the fossil record essential for investigating the long-term ecological response to climate change. Although past biodiversity changes are typically inferred from sedimentary time series, most of our knowledge about the underlying environmental drivers is based on spatial biodiversity patterns. However, the extent to which spatially derived models can be used to understand and/or predict temporal change remains poorly known. In addition, sedimentary archives provide temporally integrated records of biodiversity. Because such temporal integration is known to smooth short-term dynamics, it is essential to determine whether the environmental variables that govern biodiversity dynamics across short time scales also explain smoothed changes as recorded in the sediment. Therefore, improving our ability to derive meaningful ecological insights from the fossil record requires addressing both the validity of time-for-space substitution and the effects of temporal integration.
Here, we investigate these topics using planktonic foraminifera, a globally distributed group of unicellular plankton with an exceptional fossil record often used as a model system for pelagic biodiversity dynamics. We analyse 96 time series (average resolution: 17 days) of species composition from moored sediment traps spanning over 150 years, together with a large spatial dataset of ocean-floor sediment species assemblages (n ~ 4,000) from the pre-industrial era. These datasets enable comparison of community turnover in time across temporal scales of integration from months to multiple years and in space with temporal integration ranging from months to centuries.
Preliminary results indicate that sea surface temperature is the best predictor of spatial turnover across integration times ranging from months to centuries, with its explanatory power increasing as time integration increases. In contrast, predictors of temporal turnover are less consistent, and temperature only emerges as a dominant predictor when biodiversity is integrated over longer (annual) periods. Together, these findings suggest that we can predict past and future patterns of spatial biodiversity change with confidence, but that spatial models currently used to predict temporal biodiversity change may fail to capture the full extent of (local) temporal community change.
How to cite: Jonkers, L., Rillo, M., and Kucera, M.: Drivers of pelagic plankton diversity across space and time, World Biodiversity Forum 2026, Davos, Switzerland, 14–19 Jun 2026, WBF2026-593, https://doi.org/10.5194/wbf2026-593, 2026.
Long-term perspectives are essential for understanding natural variability in marine biodiversity and for defining meaningful baselines to guide conservation in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ). Planktonic foraminifera provide one of the most continuous and globally distributed fossil records among microplankton, yet integrating turnover rates derived from sedimentary archives with present-day observations remains challenging. Temporal integration in sediments, taphonomic alteration, and the lack of absolute abundance data all hinder direct comparison across timescales. At the same time, modern observational programmes rarely extend beyond a few years, which limits our ability to contextualise short-term ecological change.
This project aims to address these challenges by analysing multiple decadal sediment trap time series of planktonic foraminifera from a variety of oceanographic settings, with the goal of connecting present-day observations with the long-term sedimentary archive. These unique datasets provide information on absolute abundance, which is rarely available in sediment cores, and capture seasonal, interannual and decadal variability at a high temporal resolution. By quantifying turnover rates, flux dynamics and species compositional changes across these different timescales, the project characterises the natural range of biodiversity variability, providing a basis for interpreting and comparing long-term trends.
Preliminary analyses indicate that year-to-year fluctuations in absolute abundances can be substantial, whereas relative species composition often remains comparatively stable over decadal scales. To understand how these patterns translate into the sedimentary record, we simulate the effects of temporal integration by pooling multi-year trap samples. This approach helps us to identify which aspects of ecological variability are likely to be retained, dampened, or lost once incorporated into sediments, thereby clarifying the interpretative limits of sediment-derived turnover rates.
This project advances our ability to interpret biodiversity signals preserved in marine sediments by combining multiple long-term sediment trap records with time-integration simulations. It helps clarify the degree to which sedimentary assemblages reflect true ecological change versus time-averaged noise. Through its time-extended perspective, the project provides a crucial link between modern observations, historical ecology, and the long-term dynamics required for effective and informed ocean stewardship.
How to cite: Strack, T., Jonkers, L., and Kucera, M.: What decadal sediment trap time series reveal about planktonic foraminifera biodiversity turnover, World Biodiversity Forum 2026, Davos, Switzerland, 14–19 Jun 2026, WBF2026-720, https://doi.org/10.5194/wbf2026-720, 2026.
Understanding how marine biodiversity responds to climate change is essential for designing effective conservation strategies in areas beyond national jurisdiction. Planktonic foraminifera offer one of the most continuous archives of open-ocean biotic change, providing an opportunity to link past range dynamics with future extinction risk. Here we combine two complementary lines of evidence; (1) Late Quaternary range shifts that shaped the bimodal latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) of planktonic foraminifera, and (2) long-term extinction selectivity inferred from Cenozoic thermal niches; to develop a time-extended perspective on biodiversity change in the Blue Ocean.
Using paired fossil and modern assemblages, we tested whether the emergence of the characteristic bimodal LDG was driven by deglacial equatorial extirpations. The data show that equatorial species generally persisted through deglaciation, with trailing-edge contractions being uncommon. Instead, mid-latitude richness gains were dominated by coordinated poleward expansions, particularly in the Atlantic. In the Pacific, richness changes were spatially heterogeneous: localized extirpation clusters characterized the western Pacific, whereas eastern and southern regions experienced notable colonisations. Species’ thermal preferences only weakly accounted for these local patterns, underscoring substantial basin-scale restructuring that is not captured by coarse biodiversity metrics.
To evaluate longer-term extinction vulnerability, we estimated species’ thermal niches from fossil occurrences spanning the past ~66 million years. These niche characteristics explained the majority of observed climate-driven losses in the fossil record, accounting for 87–99% of local extirpations and 92–100% of global extinctions. Forward projections based on these empirically derived niches reveal concentrated extinction risks under anthropogenic warming, with particularly high vulnerability in tropical ocean regions.
Together, these studies demonstrate that past climate change produced complex, scale-dependent range dynamics while long-term thermal niches strongly constrained extinction selectivity. Integrating these insights provides a fossil-informed baseline for anticipating future biodiversity loss and supports the identification of priority areas for conserving genetic, taxonomic, and functional diversity in the Blue Ocean, in alignment with the goals of the Global Biodiversity Framework.
How to cite: Kiessling, W., Khan, T. M., Smith, I. E., Rillo, M. C., and Mathes, G.: Range shifts and extinctions in the Blue Ocean under past and future climate changes, World Biodiversity Forum 2026, Davos, Switzerland, 14–19 Jun 2026, WBF2026-770, https://doi.org/10.5194/wbf2026-770, 2026.
