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PICOs HS1.5/GI1.9


Data & Models, Induction & Prediction, Information & Uncertainty: Towards a common framework for model building and predictions in the Geosciences (co-organized)PICO Session
Convener: Uwe Ehret 
Co-Conveners: Bodo Ahrens , Erwin Zehe , Hoshin Gupta , Rohini Kumar , Steven Weijs 
Session details
 / Mon, 28 Apr, 13:30–13:50 / 15:30–15:52 / PICO Spot 1
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Monday, 28 Apr 2014
PICO Spot 1
Chairperson: Hosing Gupta, Uwe Ehret
Uncertainty estimation, bayesian and information-theoretic approaches

13:30–13:32 PICO1.1
How Reliable is Bayesian Model Averaging Under Noisy Data? Statistical Assessment and Implications for Robust Model Selection
Anneli Schöniger, Thomas Wöhling, and Wolfgang Nowak
13:32–13:34 PICO1.2
Enhancing calibration and uncertainty analysis in rainfall-runoff modelling through multi-objective optimization (withdrawn)
Mahyar Shafii, Bryan Tolson, and Loren Matott
13:34–13:36 PICO1.3
Uncertainty and Probability in Natural Hazard Assessment and Their Role in the Testability of Hazard Models
Warner Marzocchi and Thomas Jordan
13:36–13:38 PICO1.4
A General Probabilistic Framework (GPF) for process-based models: blind validation, total error decomposition and uncertainty reduction.
Gabriele Baroni, Richard P. Jolley, Thomas Graeff, and Sascha E. Oswald
13:38–13:40 PICO1.5
Parameter and uncertainty estimation for mechanistic, spatially explicit epidemiological models
Flavio Finger, Bettina Schaefli, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, and Andrea Rinaldo
13:40–13:42 PICO1.6
Uncertainty estimation and validation of data for hydrological applications
Andràs Bàrdossy and Geoffrey Pegram
13:42–13:44 PICO1.7
A generalised framework for large-scale evaluation of discharge uncertainties across England and Wales
Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, Ida Westerberg, Ross Woods, Paul Smith, and Thorsten Wagener
13:44–13:46 PICO1.8
Do non-random uncertainties in hydrological discharge time series really matter? (withdrawn)
John Juston
13:46–13:48 PICO1.9
Information Theory and the Analysis of Uncertainties in a Spatial Geological Context
Florian Wellmann and Mark Jessell
13:48–13:50 PICO1.10
Information content of prior hydrological knowledge in EGU visitors for streamflow prediction
Steven Weijs
Coffee Break
Chairperson: Steven Weijs, Bodo Ahrens
Model structure adequacy, cal/val and sensitivity analysis

15:30–15:32 PICO1.1
Process Consistency in Models: the Importance of System Signatures, Expert Knowledge and Process Complexity
Markus Hrachowitz, Ophelie Fovet, Laurent Ruiz, Chantal Gascuel-Odoux, and Hubert Savenije
15:32–15:34 PICO1.2
Implications of the subjectivity in hydrologic model choice and parameter identification on the portrayal of climate change impact
Pablo Mendoza, Martyn Clark, Balaji Rajagopalan, Naoki MIzukami, Ethan Gutmann, Andy Newman, Michael Barlage, Levi Brekke, and Jeffrey Arnold
15:34–15:36 PICO1.3
Progressive evaluation of incorporating information into a model building process
Shervan Gharari, Markus Hrachowitz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Hongkai Gao, Hoshin Gupta, and Huub Savenije
15:36–15:38 PICO1.4
EGU2014-1122 | Presentation
The value of data availability versus model complexity to estimate snow, glacier and rain water in mountain streams
David Finger, Marc Vis, and Jan Seibert
15:38–15:40 PICO1.5
Probabilistic graphs as a conceptual and computational tool in hydrology and water management
Gerrit Schoups
15:40–15:42 PICO1.6
OneRTM: an online real-time modelling platform for the next generation of numerical environmental modelling
Lei Wang and Andrew Kingdon
15:42–15:44 PICO1.7
How useful are stream level observations for model calibration?
Jan Seibert, Marc Vis, and Sandra Pool
15:44–15:46 PICO1.8
Unifying distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators for hydrologic model assessment
Qinbo Cheng, Christian Reinhardt-Imjela, Xi Chen, and Achim Schulte
15:46–15:48 PICO1.9
Towards More Efficient and Effective Global Sensitivity Analysis
Saman Razavi and Hoshin Gupta
15:48–15:50 PICO1.10
Sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation of TOPLATS on three Mediterranean catchments
Javier Loizu, Jesus Alvarez-Mozos, Javier Casalí, and Mikel Goñi
15:50–15:52 PICO1.11
Parameter Sensitivity analysis for hydrological model improvement in diverse catchments
Shailesh Kumar Singh, Jing Yang, and Hilary McMillan