PICOs HS1.5/GI1.9
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HS1.5/GI1.9 Data & Models, Induction & Prediction, Information & Uncertainty: Towards a common framework for model building and predictions in the Geosciences (co-organized) |
| Convener: Uwe Ehret | Co-Conveners: Bodo Ahrens , Erwin Zehe , Hoshin Gupta , Rohini Kumar , Steven Weijs |
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PICOs
/ Mon, 28 Apr, 13:30–17:00
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Monday, 28 April 2014 PICO Spot 1 Chairperson: Hosing Gupta, Uwe Ehret |
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Uncertainty estimation, bayesian and information-theoretic approaches
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Chairperson: Hosing Gupta, Uwe Ehret |
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13:30–13:32 PICO1.1 |
EGU2014-2211
How Reliable is Bayesian Model Averaging Under Noisy Data? Statistical Assessment and Implications for Robust Model Selection Anneli Schöniger, Thomas Wöhling, and Wolfgang Nowak |
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Chairperson: Hosing Gupta, Uwe Ehret |
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13:32–13:34 PICO1.2 |
EGU2014-15367
Enhancing calibration and uncertainty analysis in rainfall-runoff modelling through multi-objective optimization (withdrawn) Mahyar Shafii, Bryan Tolson, and Loren Matott |
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Chairperson: Hosing Gupta, Uwe Ehret |
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13:34–13:36 PICO1.3 |
EGU2014-8542
Uncertainty and Probability in Natural Hazard Assessment and Their Role in the Testability of Hazard Models Warner Marzocchi and Thomas Jordan |
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Chairperson: Hosing Gupta, Uwe Ehret |
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13:36–13:38 PICO1.4 |
EGU2014-13769
A General Probabilistic Framework (GPF) for process-based models: blind validation, total error decomposition and uncertainty reduction. Gabriele Baroni, Richard P. Jolley, Thomas Graeff, and Sascha E. Oswald |
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Chairperson: Hosing Gupta, Uwe Ehret |
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13:38–13:40 PICO1.5 |
EGU2014-11069
Parameter and uncertainty estimation for mechanistic, spatially explicit epidemiological models Flavio Finger, Bettina Schaefli, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, and Andrea Rinaldo |
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Chairperson: Hosing Gupta, Uwe Ehret |
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13:40–13:42 PICO1.6 |
EGU2014-2813
Uncertainty estimation and validation of data for hydrological applications Andràs Bàrdossy and Geoffrey Pegram |
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Chairperson: Hosing Gupta, Uwe Ehret |
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13:42–13:44 PICO1.7 |
EGU2014-10157
A generalised framework for large-scale evaluation of discharge uncertainties across England and Wales Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, Ida Westerberg, Ross Woods, Paul Smith, and Thorsten Wagener |
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Chairperson: Hosing Gupta, Uwe Ehret |
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13:44–13:46 PICO1.8 |
EGU2014-12059
Do non-random uncertainties in hydrological discharge time series really matter? (withdrawn) John Juston |
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Chairperson: Hosing Gupta, Uwe Ehret |
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13:46–13:48 PICO1.9 |
EGU2014-10015
Information Theory and the Analysis of Uncertainties in a Spatial Geological Context Florian Wellmann and Mark Jessell |
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Chairperson: Hosing Gupta, Uwe Ehret |
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13:48–13:50 PICO1.10 |
EGU2014-15933
Information content of prior hydrological knowledge in EGU visitors for streamflow prediction Steven Weijs |
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Chairperson: Steven Weijs, Bodo Ahrens |
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Model structure adequacy, cal/val and sensitivity analysis
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Chairperson: Steven Weijs, Bodo Ahrens |
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15:30–15:32 PICO1.1 |
EGU2014-2592
Process Consistency in Models: the Importance of System Signatures, Expert Knowledge and Process Complexity Markus Hrachowitz, Ophelie Fovet, Laurent Ruiz, Chantal Gascuel-Odoux, and Hubert Savenije |
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Chairperson: Steven Weijs, Bodo Ahrens |
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15:32–15:34 PICO1.2 |
EGU2014-4370
Implications of the subjectivity in hydrologic model choice and parameter identification on the portrayal of climate change impact Pablo Mendoza, Martyn Clark, Balaji Rajagopalan, Naoki MIzukami, Ethan Gutmann, Andy Newman, Michael Barlage, Levi Brekke, and Jeffrey Arnold |
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Chairperson: Steven Weijs, Bodo Ahrens |
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15:34–15:36 PICO1.3 |
EGU2014-4441
Progressive evaluation of incorporating information into a model building process Shervan Gharari, Markus Hrachowitz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Hongkai Gao, Hoshin Gupta, and Huub Savenije |
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Chairperson: Steven Weijs, Bodo Ahrens |
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15:36–15:38 PICO1.4 |
EGU2014-1122
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The value of data availability versus model complexity to estimate snow, glacier and rain water in mountain streams David Finger, Marc Vis, and Jan Seibert |
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Chairperson: Steven Weijs, Bodo Ahrens |
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15:38–15:40 PICO1.5 |
EGU2014-12818
Probabilistic graphs as a conceptual and computational tool in hydrology and water management Gerrit Schoups |
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Chairperson: Steven Weijs, Bodo Ahrens |
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15:40–15:42 PICO1.6 |
EGU2014-6613
OneRTM: an online real-time modelling platform for the next generation of numerical environmental modelling Lei Wang and Andrew Kingdon |
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Chairperson: Steven Weijs, Bodo Ahrens |
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15:42–15:44 PICO1.7 |
EGU2014-13574
How useful are stream level observations for model calibration? Jan Seibert, Marc Vis, and Sandra Pool |
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Chairperson: Steven Weijs, Bodo Ahrens |
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15:44–15:46 PICO1.8 |
EGU2014-1970
Unifying distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators for hydrologic model assessment Qinbo Cheng, Christian Reinhardt-Imjela, Xi Chen, and Achim Schulte |
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Chairperson: Steven Weijs, Bodo Ahrens |
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15:46–15:48 PICO1.9 |
EGU2014-9611
Towards More Efficient and Effective Global Sensitivity Analysis Saman Razavi and Hoshin Gupta |
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Chairperson: Steven Weijs, Bodo Ahrens |
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15:48–15:50 PICO1.10 |
EGU2014-9620
Sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation of TOPLATS on three Mediterranean catchments Javier Loizu, Jesus Alvarez-Mozos, Javier Casalí, and Mikel Goñi |
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Chairperson: Steven Weijs, Bodo Ahrens |
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15:50–15:52 PICO1.11 |
EGU2014-301
Parameter Sensitivity analysis for hydrological model improvement in diverse catchments Shailesh Kumar Singh, Jing Yang, and Hilary McMillan |