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HS4.5/NH1.14

Operational forecasting and warning systems for natural hazards: challenges and innovation (co-organized)PICO session
Convener: Michael Cranston  | Co-Conveners: Jan Szolgay , Ilias Pechlivanidis , Femke Davids 
This interactive PICO session aims to bridge the gap between science and practice in operational forecasting for different water-related natural hazards. Operational (early) warning systems are the result of progress and innovations in the science of forecasting. New opportunities have risen in physically based modelling, coupling meteorological and hydrological forecasts, and ensemble forecasting. However, once a system is operational, the development often continues more in the field of applied research or consultancy. Furthermore, development of these types of systems is usually performed within one field of expertise. Forecasting warning research can be more effective when these efforts and experiences are combined.

The focus of this session will be on bringing the expertise from different fields together as well as exploring differences, similarities, problems and solutions between forecasting systems for varying natural hazards. Real-world case studies of system implementations - configured at local, regional and national scales - will be presented, including trans-boundary issues. An operational warning system can include monitoring of data, analysing data, making forecasts, giving warning signals and suggesting response measures.

Contributions addressing the following topics are welcome:
- Applications of forecasting warning systems for water-related natural hazards, such as: flood, drought, tsunami, landslide, hurricane etc.
- Applications of forecasting warning systems for other hazards, such as: pollution
- Operational data validation and calibration
- Operational warning methods and procedures
- Real time control for hazards
- The operational system as a tool for improved risk management and decision making
- Performance of operational forecasts, event analysis
- Serious games and training with operational systems
- Structure of operational forecasting systems
- Techniques/applications to better communicate forecasts with users - such as visualization tools and impact assessments.