AM5

Verification and quality of probabilistic forecast guidance
Convener: P. Nurmi  | Co-Convener: M. Göber 
Oral Programme
 / Wed, 14 Sep, 08:30–13:00  / Room Cambridge
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Thu, 15 Sep, 16:00–17:00  / Poster Hall (Ground Floor)
The overarching theme will be verification of probabilistic guidance with the main focus on high-impact weather. Papers addressing the verification of severe, hazardous or extreme weather and warnings against such events are most welcome. Verification studies dealing with more common events (e.g. freezing of road surfaces), having a high societal impact are also appreciated. All forecast time ranges (from nowcasting to seasonal and climate projections) may be covered. Papers can deal with probabilistic NWP and EPS performance or with the quality of probabilistic final forecasts delivered to end-users highlighting user-oriented appreciation of probabilistic forecast guidance. Multi-disciplinary (e.g. hydrological) verification studies of high-impact phenomena are also supported.

Contributions are invited on:
• New probabilistic verification methods and techniques dealing with high-impact weather
• Diagnostic verification of probabilistic and ensemble forecasts
• Uncertainty inherent in observations affecting verification
• User-focused verification addressing high impact phenomena
• Communication of verification information to customers and decision-makers